Clement Hirsh #7

[jimbo66]

I am sure it is just me but it seems like this is Zenyatta\'s 7th Clement Hirsh...  Believe it or not, this may be the worst field she has ever faced in the race too.  Dance to my Tune, Made for Magic, Princess Taylor, Rinterval and Spring Style.  A field only matched by the bunch of tin cans that Rachel beat at Monmouth.  Was that Martha Washington or Queen Martha that ran 2nd to Rachel?

I don\'t get the connections of these two mares.  What can either of them gain by this endless procession this year of non-confrontation and non-competitive races?  What is the definition of \"sport\"? Try - athletic activity requiring skill or physical prowess, of a competitive nature.  That last part is key.  \"of a competitive nature\".  Non-competitive \"walkover\" type races are not sport.  I am sure I will hear one or two \"fans\" on this board saying that \"just seeing the mares is a treat\" or \"look how many people showed up at Monmouth to see Rachel\".  Well, if just \"seeing them\" is a treat, imagine what seeing them actually race would be like.  Monmouth didn\'t have the same buzz it had last year when Rachel won a competitive Haskell against Summer Bird and Munnings.  Nor the same buzz Saratoga had when she won the Woodward.  Well, I guess Zenyatta creates a buzz by allowing severely inferior horses to lead her for 90% of the races, before running by them late.  The Harlem Globetrotters occasionally let the Washington Generals stay close as well.  

The mares have run out of runway to find a chance to meet.  Rachel goes to Saratoga while Zenyatta goes for 7th Clement Hirsch.  One more start for each, I guess, then the alleged matchup in the BC Classic, where neither one will be competitive against Quality Road and we will never know which mare was better.  This of course assumes they actually show up in the BC Classic, which I doubt.  I can see Shirreffs coming up with 101 reasons not to ship.  Oh well, his supporters can always point to that one time, last May, where he actually shipped her to Churchill, only to scratch her because there was mild moisture in the track.  

The Cynic

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,
Come on now...
When you can walkover lesser competition and pocket $ 200K - $ 300K without a large threat of losing, that\'s not all bad.  
I believe if Zenyatta handles that quirky Delmar track against a weak field, we will see her on Oct 2 at Belmont in the Beldame.
That gives her a near 5 week break heading into the BC Classic, and please....Zenyatta will run in the Classic, if she\'s healthy you can take that to the bank, regardless of who else is in the race.  And, if healthy, QR better have his best juice in him, cause Zenyatta will be in that race to win it. I also would love to Rachel make it healthy to the Classic, then we got a helluva horse race. If we don\'t get Rachel and Z matched up this year, or Rachel and QR, or QR and Zenyatta, its been a bust for real racing fans.  But, Jimbo, I do agree how we can have the dominant forces in racing the last 2 years conveniently avoid each other is a real disgrace for both camps.  What is the disgrace in Zenyatta losing to Rachel or vise versa?  Big deal, you just lost to arguably the best female in the last 20 years or so.  History will still judge that runner-up in glowing terms.  But, how will history judge each of them if they never meet?  
For 2-3-4 years now people have pounded Shireffs and the connections for the path they\'ve taken to get to the Distaff or the Classic, but you can\'t knock the results. But, I\'ve been bitterly disappointed in her campaign so far and have said so on this forum more than once this year.
The entire focus of her campaign this year has been to arrive in the Classic at the very top of her game at age 6. I just have to keep telling myself she is 6 years old now, one day they\'ll spring the gate and she\'ll run like an old horse.
I share your disgust for the situation.

[TGJB]

You want to know who\'s happy about this? The Breeder\'s Cup.

[jimbo66]

Smalltimer,

The \"money\" is not the reason to \"not meet\".  First off, neither Jess jackson or Moss needs the money, but even if they did, the increased purse that a matchup would get, would certainly make 2nd place in the race worth as much as 1st place in the Clement Hirsch.  

History will likely judge both horses extremely would be my guess, but I would also guess that history will judge the connections not nearly as well, and in particular Shirreffs should and likely will get very harshly judged.  His never ending babble about the risks of shipping and the \"wear and tear\" caused by it, used as a justification to stay within California for almost two full racing seasons will not be overlooked.  Rachel\'s 4 year old campaign has been a big disappointment, but at least her 3 year old campaign was extremely ambitious for a 3 year old filly.

TGJB, I hear you on the Breeders Cup, but do you really think the two mares both show in the BC Classic?  I would take book against that.  Rachel\'s connections may have a builtin excuse as she may not qualify based on her campaign.  I read somewhere she is pretty far down the list on \"points earned\" and if the Classic is oversubscribed, I guess she might miss.  (or is there some level of \"selection\" here versus straight points earned in the campaign - I forgot)

[nyc1347]

In a thorograph perspective I see nothing wrong with Zenyatta running as she has been.  They are running her spaced out and this has kept her in consistent top shape AND she is winning.  Isnt this the point of owning a racehorse?  To win and have a healthy racehorse?  For the most part her races/campaign have been exactly the same the last couple years.  Why change what is working?

Jimbo:

If they had any kind of excuse with RA not to run in the BC they wouldve already retired her imo.

[Rich Curtis]

NYC wrote:

\"They are running her spaced out and this has kept her in consistent top shape AND she is winning. Isnt this the point of owning a racehorse? To win and have a healthy racehorse? For the most part her races/campaign have been exactly the same the last couple years. Why change what is working?\"

  To get on the good side of nonexistent historians, silly.

[jimbo66]

She could still run \'spaced out\" and run a real campaign, against quality competition, sometimes outside California.

When you have an average claimer, you can handle her the way you discuss.  Repeat the same thing again and again.

When you have a horse you believe to be one of the all time greats, repeating the same thing, year after year, is stupid (or boring, or both).

[bellsbendboy]

Always read your posts.

The fallacy with Z shipping is not understood by most.  You can assign a number to a performance easy enough... but you can never assign a number to a future performance with full confidence given the one of a life time horse she is.

Anotherwords, she runs as fast as she has too.  She is a TOTAL freak!!

The job Johnny has done with this creature, is half past incredible.  Getting her to the track in one piece is an achievement, in itself.

Blame  Dottie and the Moss pair for your must see event, but in reality this specimen is the best we have seen in a long long time. bbb

[APny]

Anyone ever ponder this?  If the owners and trainer really think Zenyatta is sooooooooooooooooo amazing...why do they seem so reluctant to race her other than on Breeders Cup Day?   Wouldn\'t you want to show her off and prove it?  Jess Jackson knows Rachel isn\'t the same horse which is why they are spotting her where they are this year...but that was certainly not the case last year.  They weren\'t afraid of ANYONE.  Maybe Sheriffs knows running on dirt against real competition may expose a weakness.

[richiebee]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You want to know who\'s happy about this? The
> Breeder\'s Cup.

Its quite surprising to me that you can not watch TVG/HRTV
for more than ten minutes it seems without hearing
Trevor Denman\'s call from last years BC Classic (\"This...
is...un...be...liev...able\")over clips of Zen\'s triumph
in 2009.

Horse racing folk are traditionally superstitious. Surprising
to me that Zenyatta\'s participation in the 2010 Classic is being
treated as a given. No deference seems to be given to fate and the
proverbial Racing Gods.

Jimbo, you say that a Rachel/Zenyatta matchup in the BC Classic
would be anticlimatic and would not prove anything, being that both
of these gals would be beaten by Quality Road. QR has twice in the
past (Derby and BC Classic 09) shown that it is never easy to assume
that a given runner will be in the gate at post time.

As I have said before, the connections of Zenyatta have but one objective--
to give Zenyatta a chance to defend her BC Classic win. The notion that Zen\'s
and Rachel\'s connections somehow have an \"obligation\" to Racing fans to bring
these two together does not sit well with me.

[Uncle Buck]

Jimbo. You raise an interesting debate when you claim neither Rachel nor Z will be competitive against quality road if they take him on in the BC classic. I think both Pletcher and Assmusen would tell you straight up their steeds are not 10F horses. We know for a fact that 10F hits Z right between the eyes. I\'d take that bet in a heart beat.

As you\'ve seen in her races, Z generally only has to lay her body down the last 1/4 or 1/8th in some cases (that is when she\'s had to do a little running which hasn\'t been that often). QR and RA would be pace compromised while Z would coming running late and with Churchill\'s stretch and Smith\'s strength as a jock, I can confidently say she\'d run them down if they went 47 flat or quicker to the half. Throw in some other speed and pressers and it sets the table perfectly for Z.

Baffert said the other day after LAL (\"A generally overrated\" 8 for 11 mutliple G1 winner - TGJB\'s words) destroyed the Haskell field that LAL and Z were much better animals on dirt.

It would be a fascinating classic that would leave me salivating at the windows.

[P-Dub]

Excellent thoughts Buck.

I don\'t understand why synthetic numbers are compared to dirt numbers. Calling LAL overrated is just plain silly, as is calling Zenyatta a synthetic freak who can\'t duplicate it on dirt.

But I guess Baffert is just another whiny, overly sensitive west coast guy. Why listen to a HOF trainer, what does he know.

Before QR is anointed the best, lets see him do it at the Classic distance. Some of you guys fall in love with numbers without the proper context.

[ajkreider]

As you\'ve seen in her races, Z generally only has to lay her body down the last 1/4 or 1/8th in some cases (that is when she\'s had to do a little running which hasn\'t been that often). QR and RA would be pace compromised while Z would coming running late and with Churchill\'s stretch and Smith\'s strength as a jock, I can confidently say she\'d run them down if they went 47 flat or quicker to the half. Throw in some other speed and pressers and it sets the table perfectly for Z.

This will depend a bit on how far back Z is when the top two start slowing down.  Rachel and QR can afford to throw in a 13 second final panel if they\'re 12 lengths in front.

If QR\'s Donn goes an extra furlong, closing in 13 still gives him a 2 minute and change 10F - and that was with a half in 46. They can slow down plenty and still beat just about anyone.

Z\'s never run that fast.  Maybe because she\'s never had to

[MonmouthGuy]

My memory from his Met Mile sheet may be faulty, but didn\'t QR throw a negative 3 in the slop at the Classic Distance in the JCGC?

By \"let\'s see him do it at a classic distance\" do you mean that 1) you didn\'t see the race, or that 2) you don\'t believe the number (which I think was just as fast on Beyer)?

[P-Dub]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My memory from his Met Mile sheet may be faulty,
> but didn\'t QR throw a negative 3 in the slop at
> the Classic Distance in the JCGC?
>
> By \"let\'s see him do it at a classic distance\" do
> you mean that 1) you didn\'t see the race, or that
> 2) you don\'t believe the number (which I think was
> just as fast on Beyer)?

What I meant is he hasn\'t won over the Classic distance. He has run twice at the distance and has lost both. Solid figures, but hasn\'t won.

Yes, I did see the race you mention. Field of 7, tracking soft fractions, sloppy track.  Didn\'t win. Yes, solid numbers (TG, Beyer, take your pick).

He is talented, I never said he wasn\'t.  But a field of 7 in the slop tracking soft fractions is different than a field of 14 with other legitimate speed. Thats the point I and others have made. Nobody is discrediting the horse. If he does win the BCC, then he will have answered the question.

So far he hasn\'t, with regards to winning the race.