DEL MAR OAKS

[Dana666]

Finally a legit Grade I in Cali. Very strong field assembled. My rough odds line (does not equal 100% so don\'t beat me up about the math!).

1-Berg Bahn (10-1): Steps way up here - I\'m not sure she\'s top class either as she fired a few good ones overseas against moderate competition. She does like firm turf though and needs a strong rider, so Solis actually makes sense. I\'m thinking minor award here?
2-Antares World (8-1): Strong filly and well built! Many will upgrade her Hollywood Oaks race, due to the fast pace and her ability to stay, but I\'ll tell you speed never came back on the Hollywood Turf course all season, and her rival, Harmonius, ran the much better race, trust me. Still genuine.
3-Perfect Shirl (5-1): Simply exudes class, there is nothing not to like about her - stalks pace, too. I will say she\'s had a few tough efforts in a row, but obviously Attfield wouldn\'t bring her if she wasn\'t doing well, right? No big surprise if she steps up, but needs to.
4-Evening Jewel (4-5): Simply monstrous. Price is the only thing I don\'t like. 5-2 am line is a joke - she\'ll be 4-5. How can you take such odds in a very competitive race like this? She is an absolute beast though.
5-Distinctive (30-1): Puzzles me as to why she\'s in this race - doesn\'t seems as good as her common foe, Berg Bahn. Would be a surprise. I saw nothing of note in her Euro tries - she did gallop out well for what its worth.
6-Harmonius (9-2): Super Hollywood Oaks try. Exploded late. She could be this good, but will she run by Evening Jewel in the last 1/8? I have a hard time seeing that.
7-It Tiz (15-1): Needs more versus these kind.
8-Weekend Magic (15-1): Another hoping for a minor award I\'m sure.
9-Crisp (7-2): Perhaps the biggest threat to Jewel. All kinds of trouble in last and she was still trying. Very class filly. Always like this quirky girl.
Good Luck & enjoy. One of the best grass races (of any gender/age) this year!

Selections:
4-Evening Jewel: I simply can not go against her no matter the price.
9-Crisp: Big threat if she ever gets a good trip!
6-Harmonius: Another female monster for Sherrifs?

[nyc1347]

Weekend Magic! I am in a HUGE show here..I think this one explodes today imo good luck!

[Dana666]

Was a great race. Evening Jewel didn\'t disappoint and Harmonius ran tremendously well, too. I think Crisp needs a break for a while - her name suits her now a days unfortunately.  

Interestingly, Harmonius traveled 36 feet farther with the wide trip and lost by a neck! I don\'t think she was ever going by Evening Jewel as long as Jewel could see her (which she couldn\'t seeing as how wide Harmonius was), but they are 2 great mares either way. Two real horse trainers run 1-2, not your usual pharmacists or CEO types - nice to see that once in a while.

What did they pay for Jewel - something like 11K! Amazing mare & 4.80 was like stealing money!

[Rick B.]

You like to crow about how much you won on one of these show bets -- how about disclosing how much you lost on Weekend Magic?

Fair request?

[Dana666]

I can\'t imagine the patience someone would have to have to make show bets and make a profit. Perhaps if I had that discipline though my gambling career would have been a lot better than it turned out. Lack of discipline was my downfall. I always do the work and don\'t cut any corners on research, but then when it always blows up at some point, I usually wind up betting the late double at Yonkers trying to get out at 11:30 PM or something. I\'m a real head case. I\'ll tell you though, I also don\'t know how the Del Mar T-G analyst comes up with some of the picks he makes - I mean touting that filly Distinctive yesterday in the Oaks? I wonder if the analyst went back at 2 am the night before and looked at videos of all her European races like I did? She had basically no shot, and somebody is paying for that service and betting on her? Crazy. What\'s crazy is I haven\'t made a profit in like 5 years so who\'s the smart one, really? I\'ve become a degenerate gambler who had all the knowledge and insight any could ever wish for and basically not a shred of self-discipline or self-esteem to manage my situation enough to make a good profit and stay in the game. I guess what I really need is to be banned from wagering and have someone pay me for my research. Believe me, if you started with 100K and were disciplined you have a million in about nine months. I could take 10% and I\'d still have a hundred thousand!. Anyway, I haven\'t had too many offers like that lately. Don\'t know how I got onto all this self-pity. . .Speaking of show bets, I do remember there was this old dude from Brooklyn who used to come to the Meadowlands and bring 50K in an old paper lunch bag and make show bets in the VIP room. Eventually, the track started canceling show bets on selected simulcast races just to screw him, so I guess he must have been making a profit. Funny I thought the point of racetracks was gambling, and yet the track needed to take measures to stop him.

[nyc1347]

Rick B!

I made exactly Five show bets this weekend and all the same amount.


$4000 show on Working for Hops  -   +$800
$4000 show on Blind Luck -    +$1600
$4000 show on Ave -    -$4000
$4000 show on Weekend Magic -   -$4000
$4000 show on Real Obvious (del Mars last race) -  +$7200

I emailed Dr billy on real obvious and u can ask him as proof.. i was goin to put a little less but decided to keep all my wagers consistent for the day.  I made $1600 for my shows and lost about $400 or so with some win wagers, food, drinks, thorograph(overhead) etc.  Not a bad day at all for me.  I cant believe Blind Luck paid so much!

[nyc1347]

by the way i made a mistake i spent about 1400 on overhead with drinks, info, rooms, food, bets etc... and i made 3200 with blind luck.. im trying to make it to saratoga but i dont think im going to be able to get there this summer.  it be great to meet u all and im sure i will very soon.

[Rick B.]

nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick B!
>
> I made exactly Five show bets this weekend and all
> the same amount.

> I made $1600 for my shows and lost about
> $400 or so with some win wagers, food, drinks,
> thorograph(overhead) etc.  Not a bad day at all
> for me.  

(Later corrected to: $3200 in profit on the show bets, and loss / overhead of $1400.)

Far be it from me to \"critique\" your play -- I don\'t have the courage to bet $4000 on anything -- but after some quick numerical analysis my observation is that you are playing with fire.

You have to hit such an incredible percentage of these bets into semi-blind pools just to maintain your bankroll that you have almost no upside whatsoever, unless you simply don\'t miss: you hit 3 of 5 bets this weekend, which is pretty good even for show betting (to those reading along: try it -- it\'s not so damn easy)...but if you miss one more bet, you are a LOSER for the weekend, and you still have your losses and other overhead to deal with.

If it works for you, great, but it feels to me like you are skating on the thinnest of ice surfaces with this betting method. I\'m old school, and would rather bet a little to win alot. I have to admit, though, that there is something sexy about cashing a $4000 show bet that pays $11,200 like Real Obvious did.

(Question: Does that >$10K payout trigger any sort of IRS paperwork, like Cash Transactions Over $10,000? Or do you break up your bets to make sure that you avoid such nonsense?)

>I cant believe Blind Luck paid so much!

That was undoubtedly your best show play: my last look at 1 minute to show had DMC at about 60% of the show pool and Blind Luck at 20%; with net pool pricing now in place, you would have gotten a decent show price on BL even if DMC did hit the board.

I probably don\'t need to tell you what an incredibly low percentage play Working For Hops was: you were essentially hoping to grab one of the two remaining show spots (you didn\'t really think Paddy would miss, did you?) at a suppressed price...again, if not for net pool pricing, you would have been playing for a 5% return there.

Anyhow, good luck to you, and thanks for sharing what is usually closely-held information.

[miff]

Betting show very tough,great patience,racing luck needed. I could never but if guys are doing it and beating the game, they are amongst the very few.

Mike

[nyc1347]

dont want to clog up the board so i sent you a message rick!

[jack72906]

nyc,

Congrats on the winnings. I would never try to talk you or anyone out of what works I guess, but just out of curiosity, why wouldn\'t you make smaller investments in the more lucrative P4s and P6\'s? Hell, start keying horses on the top of supers and tris. IDK, it seems like you would make a lot more money.

[nyc1347]

Hey Jack!



If i played a pick 4 ticket lets say the way that i weigh out my show wagers against I cant see how it would be more profitable unless there was a guaranteed pool.

if we take 4 ten horse races in a pick 4 the ACTUAL chance of winning is 10x10x10x10 = 10000 combinations.. so 1 in 10,000 Assuming no scratches and only one winner (no dead heat) in a race that would come out to a 1 out of 10,000 to hit that ticket.  Lets say with confidence you can toss out 2 horses per race that were slow and have no shot at all to win.. you now greater your chance to 8x8x8x8 = 4096 combinations. PROJECTED 1 in 4096 chance. Assuming you put 4 horses on your ticket per race the ticket would cost you $256.  You would have on paper a PROJECTED 256 out of 4096 chance of winning that ticket.  Which is 1 in 16 tickets (%6.25 chance).  In order to make Profit in the longrun the WINNING ticket would have to average 17 to 1 or more assuming you hit 1 out of 16 tickets which would leave you with only $256 over time.

If I project a horse will show using the same method i would have a projected 3/8 chance of winning... which is %37.5.  If i can maintain a strike rate of 2 out of 3 show bets with an average of %100 ROI on each of those wagers I will make %12.5 ROI of whatever i wager over time. I dont do this though and if i took a 3/8 chance i would expect at least $7 or so to show...

The difference with what i do is that i wait for opportunities to wager a show where i can get a higher ROI (projected from the money in the pools) weighed against my actual chances of winning that wager thru the thoro figures.  

I was telling rick in my message about that Working for Hops race.  I projected WFH to pay $3 (%50 ROI) with about a %75-80 chance he would hit the board.. i was basically seeing that in THAT situation that i would win about 3 out of 4 times or more but i would get a %50 ROI or so return.. THAT gap from the payout compared to the analysis using the thorographs is projected profit over time.  The ticket wound up actually being a %40 payout but even at that payout its still profit longterm.  A horse like paddy o\' prado was about %95 to come in the money to me but with a projected %5-10 payout there was no upside or edge to do that...it was %5 at most... i saw a chance with WFH to make a %45 ROI more projected payout when compared to POP and compared with only about a %15-20 less chance based on what i saw on paper with WFH being %75-80 than what i had POP at %95.

With show wagers I can wait for those opportunities and do the math.. with the pick 3s and 4s there is no set payout and even if you add more horses to cover yourself you are actually wagering against yourself cause your overall ROI decreases.  By putting less horses you higher your ROI but have less of a chance to win.. its all relative.  Its also easier as an example to put $500 to show on a horse and if it lost with a projected %50 ROI i can put $1000 on the next one at the same projection to make up for the last loss.

Trust me i love playing those wagers but i love and wait for days like kentucky derby day etc.. where the guaranteed pools and the payouts are much bigger on average than normal pools on normal days.

[BitPlayer]

I understand the relevance of pool size in a Pick-6 (fewer uncovered combinations means increased payoffs), but not in a Pick-4, unless you are betting enough on a single combination to significantly affect the payoff.

Pool size would seem to be more relevant when you are dropping $4000 into a show pool.

[nyc1347]

the $4000 is not going into the pool.. i wager on an online site where im paid track odds completely seperate from the mutuel pool.  the only time i play my shows at the track is when a del mar/saratoga type track is open and i put no more than 500-1000 down on a wager since that wager would be in the actual pool.  

looking at the payouts for saratoga alone the last several weeks they havent paid all that much on average.. MAYBE $1200 or so?  thats not impressive to me.. and that would be a $2 ticket.

[jimbo66]

NYC1347

I guess you can\'t help yourself with the redboarding and gloating and you even somehow managed to respond to a question about how much money you lost on a show bet with a list of red-boarded winning bets.  All of which is annoying, but harmless, so I would not bother to respond.  

But now you are putting out bad advice on the board, and there may be \"newbies\" to gambling that actually might buy into what you wrote, because it is fairly well written.  And that does do potential damage.

Yeah, that is REALLY BRIGHT, suggesting the \"martingale system\" aka \"the gambling system that caused more suicides than any other known gambling system\".  Lose your $500 show bet, then bet $1000 on the next one, then $2000 on the one after that, etc.etc.  Eventually you HAVE TO WIN.  Gimme a break.  Besides dangerous, this is downright stupid.  Hopefully nobody that reads that post puts any credence into it.

And the pool size comment is more garbage.  First off, you said you are betting outside the pools, so your show bets don\'t affect the pool, but you are worried about your pick-4 bets affecting it?  Secondly, if you are playing major tracks, which it seems you are, there is NOT a problem with pool size for pick-4\'s.  For there to be a problem there would have to be a lot of situations where the parly for the 4 winners was less than the pick-4 payout because of aberrational large bets into a small pick-4 pool.  Do the homework on Southern California and New York and tell me what percentage of pick-4 payoffs pay less than parlay?  The answer is less than 10%.  Many many payouts are significantly more than parlay.  Pool size is not an issue in pick-4\'s at the major tracks.  To say that it is, is just more false information.

And lastly, you are disappointed by the $1200 pick-4 payouts (600 to 1), but you find comfort with getting 1 to 5 on show bets?