DEL MAR OAKS

[nyc1347]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYC1347
>
> I guess you can\'t help yourself with the
> redboarding and gloating and you even somehow
> managed to respond to a question about how much
> money you lost on a show bet with a list of
> red-boarded winning bets.  All of which is
> annoying, but harmless, so I would not bother to
> respond.  
>
> But now you are putting out bad advice on the
> board, and there may be \"newbies\" to gambling that
> actually might buy into what you wrote, because it
> is fairly well written.  And that does do
> potential damage.
>
> Yeah, that is REALLY BRIGHT, suggesting the
> \"martingale system\" aka \"the gambling system that
> caused more suicides than any other known gambling
> system\".  Lose your $500 show bet, then bet $1000
> on the next one, then $2000 on the one after that,
> etc.etc.  Eventually you HAVE TO WIN.  Gimme a
> break.  Besides dangerous, this is downright
> stupid.  Hopefully nobody that reads that post
> puts any credence into it.


Im not in any way giving people advice. Im saying what I personally do with my wagers.  Theres no way you can make money by doing 500 to show then 1000 then 2000 and on and on and make money that way cause youd eventually be wagering against yourself and then payout would become less and less at the racetrack.  What I am saying in a situation that presents itself on the thorographs where a horse were to be %75-80 to hit the board according to my analysis with a projected %50 return that i would have the flexibility (maybe only one time) to double the wager if it loses NEXT bet (assuming the same analyisis and projected payout was present to get that last wager back plus more.  Theres a limit when it comes to an amount of money you can put to wps on a horse in person when it actually starts making the pay out go down.
>
> And the pool size comment is more garbage.  First
> off, you said you are betting outside the pools,
> so your show bets don\'t affect the pool, but you
> are worried about your pick-4 bets affecting it?

im NOT worried about the pick 4 money that i put in affect the pool.  what im trying to say is that i want my money put into something that has a guaranteed pool for a higher payout on average compared to tracks and pick 4s with no guarantee pool.  i wait for those opportunities as opposed to non guaranteed pools.  plus i cannot do pick 4s and 6s on my website they dont allow it.. i must do it in person.


> Secondly, if you are playing major tracks, which
> it seems you are, there is NOT a problem with pool
> size for pick-4\'s.  For there to be a problem
> there would have to be a lot of situations where
> the parly for the 4 winners was less than the
> pick-4 payout because of aberrational large bets
> into a small pick-4 pool.  Do the homework on
> Southern California and New York and tell me what
> percentage of pick-4 payoffs pay less than parlay?
>  The answer is less than 10%.  Many many payouts
> are significantly more than parlay.  Pool size is
> not an issue in pick-4\'s at the major tracks.  To
> say that it is, is just more false information.

as i said above i do play the bigger tracks and wait for opportunities to not only wager the guaranteed pools within the bigger tracks but also look for a wager where i can toss out at least 2-3 of the favorites in each leg.  that is the best leverage in my opinion since the public plays those tickets the most.
>
> And lastly, you are disappointed by the $1200
> pick-4 payouts (600 to 1), but you find comfort
> with getting 1 to 5 on show bets?


im disappointed by the 600 to 1 payout cause realistically (and my point all along) is that your ONLY getting 600 to 1 IF you hit a $1 straight ticket.  If you invest on a $2 ticket you are now getting 300 to 1...  a $3 overall invested ticket is now 200 to 1 ... if you put 3 horses each in 4 races that is an $81 invesment only getting 13.5 to 1 odds now AND it would have to pay the $600... you get the point. Same goes for show bets but I find comfort getting a %3 rebate on most of my wagers plus secluding myself to situations where the horse i wager on has a high ROI compared to the actual chances of it not coming in.  If you give me a Paddy o Prado or Blind Luck type horse and situation like this past weekend and I can average about a %30-50 ROI or more on a SHOW.. its a grind but im there ALL DAY!

[jimbo66]

Nyc1347,

If it works for you, fine.  The only comment on this topic that I will make is that very very very few people make money bet horses.  The 1 or 2 that I can think of out of the 100+ horseplayers I know share a trait.  They are comfortable enough with the money they make playing the horses that they don\'t feel the need or inclination to gloat.

I should just stop at that, but I have a bade habit of not being able to let things go that don\'t make sense, even though I know the person I am talking to won\'t listen.  Your comments about \"guaranteed pools\" make no sense. How often does a guaranteed pool not draw the guarantee and therefore the track has to add money and thus create a potential theoretical ROI that could be positive?  ABout every 10th full moon that happens.  If I am betting into the pick-4 sequence at Saratoga this weekend and there is no \"track money\" added into the pool, I could care less whether there is 750k in the pool or 750 million.  If I am not betting heavey straight pick-4s on longshot sequences, I am not going to get hurt by distorted payouts in the pools in NY or Southern California.

Anybody that has SERIOUSLY analyzed or bet into pick-4 pools knows that the \"guarantee\" is about 1% as important as the individual opinions you have (or don\'t have) on the races.

[TGJB]

With pick 4\'s vs show betting, there are also the issues of a) beakage, which is a much bigger deal with show bets, and b) takeout. With multiple race wagers you have only one takeout for multiple races, which is why they almost often pay a lot more than the parlay.

[nyc1347]

jimbo


the guaranteed pools draws MORE money on average.. i completely understand that the pool is beyond what is guaranteed but in my experience the MORE money there is in the pool the MORE the favorites are put onto tickets.. take THAT angle and wait for an opporunity to throw out at least 3 favorites in 4 races easily on that ticket and now we are talking about a very nice payout if u hit!  i agree with your straight tickets but realistically the people who play those tickets add more money and combinations.. if you hit a ticket with longshots and there is 750 million in the pool compared to 750k cause you will get paid HUGE.  more money in pools = more favorites played or put on tickets... that all equals bigger payouts especially when the longer shots win.  the number of tickets that win is in complete reflection of the money in the pool for a payout.

[jimbo66]

nyc1347

I will drop it and just agree to disagree.  Have you studied or analyzed statistics?  I would suggest to you that your statement about there being proportionately more money on the favorites in the 750 million dollar pool versus the 750k pool is not correct.  It just isn\'t true.  The favorites are going to be played roughly proportionately as the pool grows, not at a higher rate in a larger pool.  There is no reason to support your theory.

Jim

[nyc1347]

i couldnt agree more with you.. the factor i am bringing out though is when a pool is guaranteed on a bigger day there are people playing pick 4 tickets who usually do not play them.  its advertised as a possible huge payout.  those are the players that come in making the pools go higher but the majority of those added players put in favorites that they see in a program.  the public mentality is that \"i HAVE to put in the favorite cause the horse is a favorite for a reason\".  THOSE added players who do not normally play those tickets (based on what i see) are dead money and add to the pool leading to higher than normal payouts in a guaranteed situation for the winning tickets that have longshots on them.  on a regular day in an average pick 4 at any track those dead money players are not attracted by the wager so they dont play it leading to \"smarter\" overall tickets being played.

[siphonbobby]

How do the sites\"bookies\" not putting bets into the pools keep taking your action? If u keep burring them week after week they\'ll cut u off. Ive always thought the show betting could b done successfully if your bet didn\'t effect the payout.

[nyc1347]

ive had one shut down in the past but im still with these other 2 sites for the last year or so.  its been ok so far and nothing has been said so im trying not to jinx it lol.  people dont understand the TRUE edge that is unseen here..  if i walked into the track and wagered belmont race 1 on a random wednesday and put $5000 on any horse it will most likely be a favorite to show no matter if its even money or a longshot.  the GAP that directly alters a payout from lets say $4 to show to $2.80 IS AN upside edge for me! You just cant put that kind of money and expect a certain payout when the money goes in the pool. the payout would be much lower. THIS is a huge part of my success.  My $5000 profit days would be half of that or less at the actual racetrack!  The disadvantage though is that i am risking much more and the strike rate along with the projected chances are HUGE with what I do!