Buck,
I think Blind Luck has to be considered the leader for HOTY. She runs on all surfaces, on all tracks, and at distances from 1 mile to 1 1/4 miles. Hollendorfer deserves TREMENDOUS credit for putting her through such an enterprising campaign. With no bet on the race, I found myself pulling for Blind Luck to reward the rare aggressive campaign and sportsmanlike spirit shown by her connections. And \"yes\" that is a direct shot at Shirreffs and Moss.
The voters have shown that they reward that kind of campaign (last year\'s vote going to Rachel over Zenyatta). Hopefully they follow a similar pattern this year.
The problem Blind Luck has is that her campaign from here on out is going to be tough. Her last race for the year figures to be the Ladies Classic and I still suspect we may see Rachel there (unless the connections decide she relishes the 1 1/4 based on her race at Saratoga later this month). As nice a fillie as Blind Luck is, I don\'t believe she is ready to tackle Rachel and will also be a bit up against it versus Life at Ten and even Unrivaled Belle.
Other contenders have to be Blame, Quality Road and Zenyatta. Zenyatta shouldn\'t win unless she wins the BC Classic, which seems unlikely (first she has to enter, then she has to beat faster horses). Quality Road needs to win his last two races, assuming they are the Woodward and BC Classic. Blame has to win the BC Classic (he can lose his next IMO and still win HOTY with a Classic win).
Of course, if you have TVG and listen to that unbelievably inept group of commentators, HOTY is already over, Zenyatta has won it. Me thinks beating St. Trinian\'s doesn\'t equal HOTY.
Any early thoughts on Rachel vs Life at Ten? To me this likely decides what the rest of Rachel\'s year looks like. I don\'t have Life at Ten\'s sheet handy, but I think she has something like 5 straight races in the \"0\" category and has already won at the 1 1/4 (and run a \"0\" doing it). She will be tough. If Rachel handles her at the distance in a very strong race, my guess would be that they consider the BC Classic. Anything less than a big race makes me think they give up those types of thoughts.
Personally, I am not sure Rachel will beat Life at Ten. Sure, she has run fast enough to do it, but I am with the large majority that thinks 1 1/4 will not be a good distance for Rachel. Should be an intriguing race, albeit not much of a betting opportunity.
