Hot Young Trainer goes by the figs

[miff]

\"Brown also said that Maram remains 50-50 at this point to start in Saturday’s Grade 2 Ballston Spa. Maram finished fifth, just a half-length behind Proviso, in the Grade 1 Diana on July 31.

“She ran awfully hard in the Diana and got a 6 on the sheets, and I don’t want her to react off that effort if I bring her back on short rest,” said Brown.


....hmmm, A Kool Aid drinking trainer?? Maram sat a perfect trip stalking an 18-1 shot off a very slow pace and got ran over late by four horses. React off what??


Mike

[nyc1347]

Looks like Brown replaced Baffert at this Del Mar meet compared to previous years with those stats!  Baffy is not happy and does not want to return to Del Mar unless they take out the Polycrap.. cant blame him for wanting the change.. but is it REALLY that bad this year?   heres the article..

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/aug/23/hall-fame-trainer-bob-baffert-probably-done-del-ma/

[covelj70]

The key point here in my mind is that fact that it\'s different everyday.

It\'s bad for the horses, it\'s bad for the trainers and owners and it\'s bad for the gamblers.

Any one of the above could deal with a synthetic surface that is consistent.  Yes, some dirt tracks change over the course of a day/meet (i.e. dead rail, speed bias, etc) but this stuff is in a different league in terms of how inconsistent it is.

I am not a hater of the synthetic surfaces.  I love playing Hollywood and had a great meet there this spring. However, I stopped playing Del Mar after opening week and haven\'t played a dime there all meet since.

I will probably take a swing at the Pacific Classic this weekend just because it will be a big field and there\'s no odds on favorite so if we can find the winner, we will get paid but that will be it for me and Del Mar this meet.

[miff]

Some gamblers are down to checking the temperature and whether or not the sun is shinning in an effort to gauge how the surface will play on a given day.

The most disturbing thing is the clueless obstinate Del Mar management(Joe Harper mainly) who have been steadfast in their support of the poly surface.


Mike

[Uncle Buck]

I\'ll tell you right now guys, any horse that has finished within three lengths of a winner at Del Mar this summer should be very live once Oak Tree begins or anywhere else they ship for that matter. That quicksand at Del Mar has to have them in the fittest condition of their careers.

I rarely play anymore but that\'s an angle I think might prove fruitful

[TGJB]

First of all, we have Maram a lot different than they do, sounds like. But on the general question, you might compare how the \"drinkers\" do vs. the non-drinkers. And you would be surprised who some of them are.

[miff]

JB,

Was referring to Browns comment about a bounce off a rather common effort. Rags has Maram much faster than you and on this occasion gave a fig equal to like a 2 1/2 on your stuff.

As to the many top trainers that use TG/Rags as one of the their tools,some do well because they have good stock.As to those trainers that strictly manage off the figs ONLY, that\'s a slippery slope.


Mike

[TGJB]

Nobody does eveything off the figs only, not even me. But there are lots of us who give horses extra time off big efforts (figure wise).

Do they have Maram off a top? We have her running the same as the previous two.

[miff]

JB,

Some may evaluate big efforts strictly by the number.A far better barometer imo, is how much \"running\" the horse did in getting the big fig and equally important how the horse is reacting within the  first 48 hours(you know, laying down, dull, head down, off feed etc or conversely dragging the groom ready to rumble again)

The fact that most of todays horses are not nearly as resilient as before also makes connections wait longer between starts, especially at the top level.

I saw Maram\'s TG/Rags and do not exactly recall them side by side but RAGS figs for many ground loss type runners do not reconcile, scale to scale. I asked a RAG friend to see if Len Friedman  would speak to me about the major differences,scale to scale,with Beyer/Rags/TG.I believe that after tinkering for 5 years I have a very credible conversion scale(Beyer/TG/RAGS)


Mike

[TGJB]

1-- Ragozin trackmen tend to use the \"fan\", which they shouldn\'t. That causes them to give bigger figures than they should to some horses. I brought that out with some examples from the Breeder\'s Cup a few years ago here.

2-- Wrong on lack of resilience, but that\'s something we can go round and round about forever. They are running much faster and their bones and ligaments can\'t take it.

3-- One of the few things Michael Dickinson and I ever agreed about is that horses off big efforts sometimes don\'t show the effects until after the NEXT race. They run terrible when their trainers think they are kicking down the barn, then come out of the BAD race tired. I\'ve seen that many, many times. The good trainers know what they don\'t know.

4-- Seriously, do you know who you are talking about better barometers to? I know you have done some sort of advisory to at least one NY stable, but I\'m up to somewhere north of 150 stake wins, buying only around 15 horses a year for clients. You\'re going to tell me the right way to manage horses?

[miff]

\"You\'re going to tell me the right way to manage horses\"

JB,
It\'s many more than one outfit but thats personal stuff.


Regarding the #2 point on resiliency, you may be the only guy I know who thinks that it\'s how fast they run today and not the modern fragile speed bred, genetically drugged up horse(that from some of the top breeding farm guys in the country,not me).


You already know there is no absolutely RIGHT way.If a horse runs big and comes out fine, no weight loss etc, we look for the next spot.We rarely stop on a horse who is doing well and not seemingly raced out.We are always worried about the \"silent\" bounce.We evaluate how much real running the horse did and the race dynamics of that effort.Curious, do you?

Lastly, you may or may not know that I had 27 horses racing in NY in the early 90\'s.At that time, I knew several outfits that strictly used sheet theory(ride the bug boy for the weight, stay on the rail,space generously)that all went broke, maybe not for those reasons alone.

You said that you do not manage ONLY by the sheets, if you did you would probably not be as successful.

Mike

[TGJB]

I\'m not the only one on point #2. The drug stuff doesn\'t affect their soundness directly, but goes to making them run even faster than they should, and in that way affects their soundness. There are still plenty of slow horses who run a gazillion times.

No, I do not pay attention to race dynamics in terms of judging an effort.

Starting earlier than the 90\'s, and primarily in NY-- when I was with Ragozin I took over Dennis Heard\'s stable when it had two horses and 50k in capital, three years later we were third in the country in wins. After I split with him he took out a trainer\'s license, used what he learned from me (and Ragozin\'s sheets, I was just starting TG), and managed Glenn Lane\'s stable to be second in the country in wins, I think two years in a row. Meanwhile, I picked up the Wachtel stable, and we finished 9th and 11th in the country in wins two years in a row. Those were the claiming stables, all were run completely using sheets theory, Now, I have to say that in those days Oscar and Ferriola were the only move-up guys, so the claiming game was different.

Since then I\'ve been dealing with a different type of client, as you know. My two main clients during that time-- Prestonwood and Parra-- both have turned large profits. Prestonwood was off the charts-- 23 horses bought, average price 125k, 13 stake winners, including Distorted Humor, Victory Gallop and Da Hoss. Bottom line was almost a 400% profit, real dollars, and that didn\'t include DH\'s appreciation as a stallion, just his value at retirement. I\'m constrained on what I can say about Ro\'s operation, but he has done well. There\'s a piece coming out soon on us in Blood-Horse, he is being interviewed and may be more forthcoming there.

That piece may be pretty good. I gave the writer as much colorful stuff about the Ragozin operation in the old days as I could. You know what the guy did before he started writing for them? Wrote for Andrew Dice Clay. No kidding.

[miff]

I\'m not the only one on point #2. The drug stuff doesn\'t affect their soundness directly, but goes to making them run even faster than they should, and in that way affects their soundness. There are still plenty of slow horses who run a gazillion times.


JB,

Was speaking of the breeding end.Many experts feel that the gene pool has been compromised, soundness wise, by the drugs given to the sires/dams of todays horses in the drug permissive USA. If I have not read/heard that a hundred times, I haven\'t heard it once.

Mike

[TGJB]

One of the problems with that type of discussion is that it usually revolves around stake horses. I would like to see a study of how often non-stake horses are running compared to how often they used to run. It would be better done with geldings, that factors out being retired for breeding.

[dehere]

I\'d like to read more about the \"fan\" that you referred to in this thread JB. Care to elaborate?