Sar 7th Wed 8/25

[cruzm73]

I ususlly just read here trying to learn, rarely post.  I remember a couople months ago reading a post about a horse called Moon Town who is in the 7th at Saratoga today.  Any thoughts on his chances today?  

I see he\'s been off a while, never raced at Saratoga, and never on soft/good turf which is expected today, but those last 3 races are impressive.  I watched replays of all and that last race at Churchill was big.

Appreciate any insight.  Best of luck to all today!

[nyc1347]

i remember actually texting McPeek and he told me he was going to come out \"soon\" and this was back in February/March.  Finally got entered last week against a small field on the dirt at the spa but scratched and now entered again here on turf.  Tough to take him at a ML fave with such a huge layoff but if he fires we know hes good enough.  I would imo wait it out to see how the horse comes back... if he romps for some reason theres most likely no value and if he loses u saved money.. doesnt seem like any upside to me in this race. I may actually take a shot on Skipadate... Good Luck!

[miff]

So far (9:am), the 4th race is off the grass with races 5,6,7,9 still on.With all the rain for the last few days the turf course is likely to be near yielding/soft, not officially labeled yet.More showers in forecast, horrible day for a double carryover.

Have to wonder if Mc Peek will risk a nice prospect like Moon Town on either a boggy turf course or sloppy dirt off the long layoff.


Mike

[moosepalm]

McPeek has had other horses up here firing after lengthy layoffs.  If he\'s entered, I won\'t be leaving him off my ticket.

As of 7:30, the NYRA site had the turf labeled as \"good,\" for what that\'s worth.  I\'m in Saratoga right now, and the current forecast calls for 10-15% chance of rain until 5:00, and then 30%.

Good luck to all.

[drbillym]

tough beat nyc, but judging by the show payoffs loos like you nailed it.

[nyc1347]

come on you know that is all i do! (sort of =D)  shouldnt have played in person though but il take it.  sizzled $600 away on a wp wager in the following race but still a great day.. 3 for 4 so far with Del Mar coming up.  DMR race 3 im playing Ronin Dax to show and Race 5 Shesoprovocative to show.. good luck to you all!

[cruzm73]

Thx to you & others for the sage advice...just watched the race...as I said just trying to learn the game.  Looked like they put him a little closer than in the past & wide around first turn.  Maybe just a work for better things to come?

[richiebee]

Nice call on Ronin Dax.

His rider PVal not doing bad for a rider who is permanently banned from riding in
California. I\'d love to watch this guy ride day in day out, but they get mad at
me when I watch the races at work.

PVal is 48 and seems to be holding his own against the two young guns, Rafa-El and
Jo-El, who are about half his age.

The natural comparison is PVal to Steve Howe, the late relief pitcher who was
tossed from MLB what? maybe seven times. The difference in my opinion is that if
Steve Howe traveled the straight and narrow, he had the talent to be considered a
very good relief pitcher.

PVal probably had the talent to be one of the top ten or so riders in history.

Dont know how the weight situation is playing out; he was struggling to do 120 in
Louisiana this winter. Hope he hangs around a while and we can watch him at CD in
the BC.

OK, sorry for the interruption, back to the NYC Show, brought to you by
Thorograph...Everything You Need to Show.

Unrelated question: NYC in last weekends recap, you gave an accounting of your
overhead. What did you ever do to the people at Borgata that you have to pay for
your drinks?

Great weekend of weather and hopefully racing coming up. I will forgive NYRA for
a generally crappy Summer of cheap racing if they draw a good Travers card, light
on cheap claimers, state bred slow rats^TM and turf sprints.

This weekend is the end of Spa racing for me in 2010. Saratoga racing in July and
September is kind of like the movie \"Godfather III\".

[nyc1347]

hahhaha nice post Richiebee lol Too bad that 6 horse ran wide the whole way.. he ran just as good as the winner but at 20 to 1.   The borgata has a beautiful racebook with free drinks all day at the bar. Free wifi too if you guys ever want to bring your laptop!    Unfortunately, they close it around midnight and friends of mine are not into the horses as much as they are into poker and baccarat so im stuck paying $12 at the B Bar per mix drink when we do get drinks.. a shot and a mix drink is $20-30 a round easy.  i do not get comped bc i do not place that many wagers at the racebook where the money is put into pools.. they actually have a limit there of how much you can show a horse i believe it is $300 or so..  its ridiculous.  Most of my expenses are out of pocket including hotel rooms and all when i go to ac.

[P-Dub]

Was just looking at this race in the Red Board Room, and surprised by the Analysis.

The Analysis has Moon Town as a play at odds of 5/2 or more. Wow. Says his last 2 would likely win today. Well yeah they would.....if you expect a horse coming off a 9 month layoff, running over a turf course less than firm, to return to that figure.

People talk about value all the time, yet I see plenty of horses touted as plays paying 6 to 8 bucks. That just seems crazy to me.

Did you really think this horse would go off at 5/2? If it did, you really think this was a solid investment at 5/2??

Pleasant Strike looks clearly best if Moon Town doesn\'t fire.  This horse never ran less than a 3.5 last year, comes back and runs a 4 first out.  Troubled trip and doesn\'t fire after that, then comes right back to a 3 last out.  The ONLY other horse to run a 3 was Dubai Rainbow, he did it sprinting on turf last out and has done it over the main track.  Never done it routing on turf. No other horse has even broken past a 4 ever.

This horse was a gift at 10/1, and was clearly the value in the race. I was really surprised that the analysis only suggested playing him underneath a horse that would most likely be overbet coming off of a 9 month vacation.

Thanks to NYC for mentioning Skipadate, made for a nice exacta even if the price was short for that ticket.  $112 for a deuce, 10/1 over 8/1 in a 10 horse field with the overbet chalk running out.

Thoughts anybody??