Anyone else think Friend or Foe looks really live in the Travers?

[covelj70]

1) Very competitive last figure
2) Buried last figure so we will get a big price
3) hasn\'t hit a number yet that has caused a reaction so very possible that he moves forward again
4) 2nd time going 2 turns so should improve off the Jim Dandy effort from a stamina and kick standpoint
5) galloped out past the winner in the Jim Dandy so don\'t think the mile and a quarter will be a problem
6) Fabulous bottom side pedigree with all kinds of class and stamina in the female family

at 15-1, I think they are going to get me on this one (as JB likes to say)

absolutely tremendous card on Sat up there, kudos to NYRA

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

I can\'t argue against Friend or Foe.  I will give you one more angle that often works.  \"me off\".  I liked this horse on the Jim Dandy a bit, but while I will use him in the pick-4, i can\'t key him.  

I think Afleet Express is the right play here.  Won\'t be 15-1 like Friend or Foe, but at 6-1, if I can get it, that is a fair price.  He has the big negative number that he bounced off of, then ran right back to the same figure again.  He now has 3+ months since the negative 4.  I guess the pessimist could say the negative 4 was sprinting and the two slower numbers since are routes and this horse is a better sprinter.  I will go the other way and say he moved back a few points off the big effort and the fact that his next start didn\'t result in a further backward move could mean he is recovering and ready to run big again.  I also believe he was bias challenged in the Jim Dandy.  That was one of the 3 1 1/8 races that weekend where speed ran 1-2, 1-2 and 2-1.  Castellano gave this guy a lousy ride IMO, getting off the rail at the wrong time and losing ground to go wide on the turn and fall further off the pace.  At the end of the race he was the only one really running amongst the closers and looked solid to me.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

Thanks for the thoughts.  Absolutely hysterical in the first line and I love the thoughts on the horse in the second line.

I don\'t like A Little Warm in this so I am going to toss him and play a 3 horse box that doesn\'t use him.  

A Little Warm is no faster than a bunch of the others TG wise in this and I don\'t think he\'s a true mile and a quarter horse.  The way he galloped out in the Jim Dandy suggests a mile and a quarter may be beyond his scope.

Slow and stamina challenged is no way to go through life, trust me, I know this.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

I hear you on slow and stamina challenged....

I just finished looking at the pick-4 and the race that is interesting to me in the sequence is the King\'s Bishop.  It isn\'t because of who I like, but rather who I don\'t like in that race.  First off, despite not seeing the ML odds yet, I have to guess that Discreetly Mine is 4-5 or less and D\'Funnybone figures a very strong second choice, maybe 2-1 or so.  I think there are solid reasons to bet against both favorites.  Discreetly Mine is off the 4 point new top, with a big negative number, back in 26 days.  I can leave him off the pick-4 ticket and let him beat me.  D\'Funnybone is just plain slow.  At the weights, the 2nd slowest horse in the race (albeit consistent).  I can\'t say I particularly like any horse in the race, but I could see spreading across a few of the others, with 80%+ of the tickets tied to either Discreetly Mine or D\'Funnybone, a win by anybody else \"opens up\" the pick-4.  

Agree wholeheartedly on A Little Warm, but unfortunately I believe the ML oddsmaker got it wrong and A Little Warm won\'t be favored.  He ran with the bias in the Jim Dandy and agree with you that he wants no part of the 1 1/4.  

Good luck,

Jim

[nyc1347]

Latigo Shore       20-1
Hurrican Ike        6-1
D\' Funnybone        5-2
Dicreetly Mine      6-5
Bulldogger          5-1
Bank Merger         8-1
In Jack\'s Memory   20-1


Looks like were going to have lots o\' speed up front with D\' Funnybone and Bulldogger.. stalkers should be HI and DM.  I think HI and DM are set up here good imo for 1st and second with dead aim and a horse like Latigo Shore should be coming from the clouds.  IJM is too slow and BM will most likely run an even effort.

[big18741]

Ice Box has an ugly sheet but I think he runs here.

1 Derby was better than the # getting stopped three times.Next two were dull but no surprise.Lack of pace in both didn\'t help either.

2 Gets a nice setup here and probably 1w1w

3 last work was sharp

4 he\'ll be a price

5 10f\'s doesn\'t hurt him.


Trying to sort out the 3rd 4th and 5th place horses from the Jim Dandy adding another furlong.Afleet Express didn\'t run until switched to the outside-he\'s big needs to stretch his legs.Finished and galloped out best but what about that drift in that caused trouble for FOF and FD?

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:

I agree. I would not be shocked if Trappe Shot goes off as the lukewarm 4-1 favorite.

Extremely contentious race. My 2 throwouts right off the bat besides the Jim Dandy 1-2 finishers are the Afleet Alex colts who I also believe will not relish the 1 1/4 at a demanding distance over that surface.Could explain why colts who run well in the Belmont carry that over to the Travers.
 
Ice Box will probably run better for sneaky Zito.  Friend or Foe very talented but this may be too soon for him.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

NYC1347

I think you have the wrong two horses up front (well one of the two wrong).  D\'Funnybone will be off the pace, stalking IMO.  Discreetly Mine has more zip than he does.  I believe Bulldogger might even get loose here on the lead (when you factor in \"trainer intentions\".  The horse with the 2nd most zip (Discreetly Mine) has won two straight races stalking, and when he got beat sprinting by D\'Funnybone it was because he got hooked on the lead with eightyfiveinafifty.  

I think IJM is the only horse who is truly too slow, although I also agree with you that the needed move forward from BM to win is an unlikely event (although I will leave him on spread pick-4 tickets just in case).

Jim

[analizethis]

Opinions on First Dude adding blinkers (Romans is 24% with a positive ROI adding blinkers)?

It seems that, even if they get him to lay off the pace some, this one-paced long striding colt will need to set up in at least the 3 path so that he doesn\'t get stopped in the lane. All that will make it tough even if he does cycle back to a negative number.

Also, the conventional wisdom is that Miner\'s Reserve is in the race to ensure a quick pace for the other Zito closers but if he doesn\'t scratch, (which would not surprise me) he may be sitting on a big run. The TG stats (from a 699 race sample) say he 40% to run a new top which would be a negative number. That and a rail trip from the one hole would give him a big shot. He is by Mindshaft which tells me two positive things; (1): the distance should not be an issue and (2): he probably has development left in him (Mindshaft progeny improve almost three points from 3 to 4, this is August and his top in the last is only 2 points better than his GP previous top). Of course it is a concern that A Little Warm ran past him in the last two but given the development that one may be ready to bounce some (only 19% to get a new top).
So I think I have talked myself into Miner\'s Reserve being a value play (will probably be at least 15 - 1) in the race if he stays in.
Thoughts?

[toppled]

I like Hurricane Ike in the King\'s Bishop.  Don\'t even look at those poly races.  His last 2 dirt races were pretty classy.  Sadler never comes to Saratoga & for him to bring this horse back off a layoff & ship him here makes me believe he really thinks he\'s got this race.  I\'m discounting his other horse Sister Dawn at my own peril, because I can\'t see her near Beyondallboundarys.  
Now on the #s-Discreetly Mine\'s -4 spells huge bounce.  Plus he did it against absolutely nothing.  The last time he went head to head with D\'Funnybone he lost by over 3 lengths-horrible favorite.  D\'Funnybone should be the favorite, but I still think Ike can beat him-might be a decent exacta with DM tossed in a 2,3 box.
Now my horse, Ike-paired those 1.5s back in the spring, should move forward off the freshening-working great on a surface he doesn\'t like.  Getting 4 pounds from the top 2 mls.  Lets look at what came out of the Derby Trial vs the tomato cans D\'F & DM have been facing: 3rd place Pleasant Prince won the G3 Ohio Derby; 5th place Game On Dude won the G3 Lone Star Derby; 7th place Miner\'s Reserve won an alw then ran 2nd twice to A little Warm including in the G2 Jim Dandy.  If HI has matured in any way since April, he\'s moving forward off those 1.5s.  Class wise he looks the most likely to handle this bunch.

[Leamas57]

Nice call on LS to hit the board. Hope you had the show money down!

Leamas