Personal Ensign

[nyc1347]

Life at Ten should go as usual right out to the lead.  Think she will be going pretty fast here especially towards the backstretch with Rachel breathing down her back.  Think Miss Singhsix can pick up the pieces here going longer?  Ran great closing into slower fractions set by Life at Ten last out.  Rachel may get tired chasing if LAT can run great and if not then Rachel will go by and MS can still pick up the pieces for second.  imo seems like this is a nice setup for MS to get at least 2nd and to me that angle deserves a place wager that may very well pay $7-8 minimum here with the other two bet heavy to run 1-2 in the exacta.  That screams value to me so im in..  good luck!

[TGJB]

If she pays $7-8 to place in a 5 horse field with the favorite running first or second I\'ve been playing this game all wrong all these years.

[Michael D.]

Rachel should run LAT into the ground. Rachel over Miss Six sounds reasonable. I\'ll try RA over the longer priced Persistently, small reversal.

[nyc1347]

my take is that its about %50 that both do not get in the top 2 together.. realistically the more it pays above $4 the more you are ahead of the game.  but i cant see RA coming in with MS and it paying $3.60 to place on MS.. MS is a 10 ML and there should be huge money (like %85+) on RA and LAT combined in the place pool.  im guessing about $5-6 minimum at worst.. thats a nice edge but i guess we will see soon.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> If she pays $7-8 to place in a 5 horse field with
> the favorite running first or second I\'ve been
> playing this game all wrong all these years.


It takes some people a bit longer to figure things out in life. Stick with it JB.

[Leamas57]

Agreed. In a race like this, the second favorite (if speed) often finishes out. I got hammered early today and am watching or I would bet RA on top with LAT in third and fourth in supers.

Leamas.

[nyc1347]

right idea wrong horse! hope Michael had it! and even in the loss i think RA ran a great race especially since the horse that got 2nd to her last out bounced off the walls at monmouth 30 minutes ago

[Perfect Drift]

What was Rachel\'s most impressive accomplishment?

1. Blowing a 3 1/2 length lead in the stretch by running a 27.15 final quarter

2. Losing to a 21-1 allowance horse

3. Giving the appearance she was sponged at the 1/8 pole



nyc1347 Wrote:
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> right idea wrong horse! hope Michael had it! and
> even in the loss i think RA ran a great race
> especially since the horse that got 2nd to her
> last out bounced off the walls at monmouth 30
> minutes ago

[nyc1347]

il go with number...

4.  firing a nice off effort going 10F for the first time when %99 of other horses wouldve bounced off the walls coming back from the same effort a month ago.

[BitPlayer]

Nice call Michael D.  How did you come up with Persistently?

Did anyone else notice that the win odds on Peristently changed (20/1 became 21/1) on the NYRA feed long after the trophy presentation?  It\'s no big deal, and I\'m sure there\'s a technical explanation, but events like this certainly don\'t inspire confidence in the tote system.

[Michael D.]

BitPlayer Wrote:
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> Nice call Michael D.  How did you come up with
> Persistently?


Thanks Bit. The horse most likely to get the distance.

I really didn\'t like the Del Handicap. After setting those ridiculous fractions, LAT should have been able to cruise home in :24. She finished that final 1/4 six lengths slower than that. A duel with Rachel was only gonna make things worse. Pletcher already had one Malibu Moon filly croak at the distance (at 3/5 in the Alabama), and LAT was likely to do the same. A poor 9/5 shot. I liked Miss Six to get the distance better than LAT, but still thought she was a tad slow, and didn\'t see a lot of value. I did think Rachel was ready to run a big one. I expected a strong 9f, followed by a slow final 1/8, but enough to win. She only needed a :26.5 final 1/4 to win, so I really don\'t regret making the key bet Rachel over Persis. Still, it was Rachel and Calvin, and you knew the combo would be an underlay. Persistently had as good a sheet as you could hope for, and a lovely mile and a quarter stride. And how many times have you seen one of Shug\'s well bred horses not show enough speed to put up a good figure at the middle distances, then pop stretching out? The 2nd dam here was Heavenly Prize, winner of the 10f Alabama over the strip. In the end, I thought it made sense to reverse the exacta with a smaller ticket. Not a huge score by any stretch, but the bet sure made the race fun to watch.



> Did anyone else notice that the win odds on
> Peristently changed (20/1 became 21/1) on the NYRA
> feed long after the trophy presentation?  It\'s no
> big deal, and I\'m sure there\'s a technical
> explanation, but events like this certainly don\'t
> inspire confidence in the tote system.

[plasticman]

There was a huge delay in posting prices for this race. I think they\'re lucky the horse went UP in price and not down.