Rachel Retired !

[P-Dub]

I respect Andy Beyer immensely. Don\'t always agree with him but like anyone, he\'s certainly entitled to his opinion.  Thats all that was, his opinion.  It was not the definitive analysis of Zenyatta\'s career.

Steve Davidowitz, another esteemed writer and handicapper, calls Zenyatta one of the all time greats. There was a post here a couple months ago, where it was mentioned that Steve Byk and Davidowitz had a \"discussion\" regarding Zenyatta,  where Davidowitz gave the reasons he felt that way. Byk hung up the phone screaming like a little kid. Funny stuff.

Beyer has no idea how people will regard her. If he wants to be someone who can\'t appreciate her talents, then who really cares??  

How many times has someone on this board posted that Zenyatta will lose, based on the figures??

I\'m not going to get into another pissing contest regarding Zenyatta. Those that don\'t appreciate what she is, and Beyer is apparently one of those, lose out.

[TGJB]

When did someone post that she WILL lose? Maybe Jimbo, once. I can remember people saying they would bet against her at odds-on, which is not the same thing. The beef many people here have is that she HASN\'T run in more than 2-3 races where she had any significant chance of losing, due to the level of the comp.

Andy basically has it right. If Zenyatta beats QR, Blame, LAL and the rest on dirt, she will have to run faster than she ever has. This would promote the case of those who think she just does enough to win, that those close finishes against no-names on synthetic should be disregarded or held in her favor. If she runs no faster than on synth, and gets beat, she will be viewed as a terrific filly who\'s record is somewhat inflated. Which is the view that those who measure things with figures have now.

Those of us who live in NY get used to Met and Yankee fans saying the other team sucks. I\'m a Met fan, and the Yanks are pretty good. The fact that I think based on a data base I\'ve spent a long time building that RA was a superhorse, and that Z\'s record is inflated, doesn\'t mean I don\'t think Z is a very good mare.

[P-Dub]

Poor choice of words, but a few have labeled her a bet against. Point taken.

Its unfortunate that one race will determine her legacy.

[TGJB]

Only the degree of her legacy.

[TGJB]

And by the way-- getting weight, it\'s not impossible that Zenyatta can win just by running her top, depending on whether some of the boys run theirs, and how Smith rides her. She didn\'t get the best figure in last year\'s Classic, but won because she cut the corner. Legacy might depend on what \"Wide Mikey\" does-- pretty ironic, huh?

Miff, you get to tell us that if she went around she would have won anyway.

[miff]

JB,

You\'re getting close E.G. If Rachel had NOT been floated wide on the first turn in her last loss, she\'d have lost anyway.Big league racing stuff, nothing to do with figure making.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- I hope to make it to the big leagues someday, where distance travelled changes with rate of speed and location of the turns. Sort of like the hyperspace button on Asteroid machines.

And by the way, don\'t know which RA race you are talking about, but didn\'t you just get done telling us ground loss was MORE important on the first turn?

[miff]

JB,

Well study splits, racing etc for 40 years and you might. Rachel lost because she was hounded the first 4F by another horse.Had she been the same wide into the first turn without PRESSURE, she would have won.Her defeat had zero to do with ground loss on the first turn.

Mike

[TGJB]

Yep, doesn\'t matter how far they travel. I just need to study more so I can come up with those \"facts\".

[miff]

JB,

Never said that how far they travel did not matter,all the time.It absolutely matters most of the time, and the speed at which horses travel the FIRST TURN is very relevant when extremely slow or fast.

There are many races where a horse travels farther than his opponents but still gets a more favorable overall trip/set up/path,mitigating ground loss somewhat or totally.

I never disputed the shortest way home is best,most of the time.


Mike

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

I couldn\'t agree more with your last sentence, which is that it is unfortunate that one race will determine her legacy (at least to a degree).

It isn\'t her fault that she was a 4-5-6 year-old at a time when racing took the idiotic decision to run on carpet.

It also isn\'t her fault that her campaing has been managed so conservatively such that she really hasn\'t much chance to beat fast horses (with a few exceptions - although ironically last year\'s BC Classic is a bit of a negative key race, for those that believe in such things).

Shirreffs and company would\'t have even have had to do much to enhance her legacy.  How about a trip outside California just a couple times in the past few years.  Shit, anybody believe she wouldn\'t have won the Personal Ensign at Saratoga as that race turned out?  Wouldn\'t that have been good?  They wouldn\'t even do that, but instead opted for Clement Hirsch.

If Zenyatta wins the BC Classic she has to be considered an all-time great, no matter how she does it.  If she runs off the board, it will be like a book with a bad ending.  Was it her \"one off race\" which all horses are entitled to?  Or was she well managed and never that fast?  Nobody will really know, but almost everybody will have a strong opinion on it.  Which brings me back to the point I have bored so many on this board with.  If the connections had just tried a little bit to actually race this mare in competitive spots, it would have been a completely different discussion, and much more fulfilling.

Oh well.

[jbelfior]

JB:

I\'m one of the guilty. I posted back in June that she would lose to St. Trinians.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Thanks Joe B.

I didn\'t think I posted she \"would lose\".  Of course I have bet against her 15 times, but at least no posts....

[Leamas57]

While this is not an easy topic to articulate, there\'s the element of centripetal force. If a horse is making tighter turns there should be more force acting on the horse. One of my peeves is when a jock asks a horse to run (accelerate) while in the turn itself. This greatly adds to the force required to keep turning.

Leamas

[Leamas57]

The horse\'s name was Real Quiet.

Leamas