Blame the surface, or blame Blame?

[Michael D.]

Hate to analyze anything after yesterday, so I won\'t. I\'ll just pose the question:

Is Blame a back-running middle distance horse with a run dulled and rendered insufficient at a mile and a quarter, or did he just not take to the Bel surface? Expect better at CD, a surface we know he likes? Or is he simply tailing off after the two big efforts over the summer?

[smalltimer]

Michael D,

Maybe he wasn\'t fully cranked?  Or if he was, maybe the 126# or the extra furlong was more than they expected? (Just my opinion)

He ran a nice race in the Super Derby but carrying 124# he still couldn\'t reel in Regal Ransom. He\'s a much better horse now. (Just an observation)

Very possible he just didn\'t like the surface.

For anyone that really likes Blame, yesterday\'s loss did nothing but increase his odds in the Classic, so that\'s not all bad.  

I won\'t be using him because I\'m not positive he\'ll get the distance in a strong fashion, plus the 126# may be a factor with this horse.

I sure couldn\'t fault anyone who likes him though, nice horse.

[miff]

Mike D,

Good question, another one might be, how did Blame run down Quality Road 8 weeks ago? Maybe an indictment of both of them.Blame had only 3 prior races so I question what those neg -2.5 efforts meant since they were well spaced and somewhat ground loaded.

From a viewing perspective Blame was a more muscled up horse than the one I saw at the Spa.Maybe Stall did not tighten the screws all the way before the upcoming Classic and had him carrying more flesh by design.

LAL, Z, Haynesfield,Redding Colliery won, latter pair add early gas. The Classic odds should be decent with Z likely becoming the favorite with the expected \'adoration money\'pouring in.


Mike

[smalltimer]

Mike,
If Espoir City from Japan ships in and acclimates well, he has a lot of early gas too.

[Michael D.]

I\'ve already gone back and forth a few times. First impression was quite negative. Gomez never really took hold of the horse, and rode him from 3/8 out. Didn\'t look like they were trying to save anything, and if they were, Garrett didn\'t get the memo. Not impressive. Then again, Blame just got off the plane on Fri, and had been training over the Kee poly. Have to imagine the horse is gonna look a little sharper in the BC after spending a few weeks training over the CD surface, no? Either way, the odds on the horse just jumped about 50%.

[miff]

Mike D,

Two things to consider if you like him.Blame is a much better two turn horse and his Foster win at CD was a giant effort, hung wide, all the way,on a speed favoring track against a loose leader setting a modest early pace.He\'s 3-4 at CD.

My knock on Blame is how he will possibly handle LAL and or Z coming home, both much quicker late.

Mike

[alm]

Mike

Belmont has always posed a question for distance horses, with the one-turn routes...Pleasant Tap excelled there, once around and generally fell apart around two turns at other tracks...I am guessing Blame is at his best around two and that he also needs to run at a competitive pace...which yesterday\'s race lacked.

I don\'t like LAL or Zenyatta so I will take the bet that the above thought is accurate...live or die.  He owes me since he was the hole in my P4 yesterday.

Al

[Rick B.]

The consensus from the group of guys I gamble with is that Blame got what he needed out of the race yesterday...without squeezing the lemon dry.

[Uncle Buck]

Hey Miff. You better jump on the \"Adoration Money\" bandwagon brother. Z is going to win the Classic because she\'s fast enough and is a true 10 furlong classic distance horse. Plus I\'m completely convinced she\'s getting smarter. Now she seems to be testing herself with these \"doing just enough to get up\" jobs like the last two. I think she\'s purposely running by others late at the wire. She\'s looked hopelessly beat the last two at the 1/8th pole. Anyone can see she\'s just playing.

That pace scenario she faced yesterday was crap. I\'ll be licking my chops @ Churchill with a legit pace and the long stretch. Jump in the water MIFF. Don\'t go home sad on Nov 6th! LOL

[FrankD.]

Rick a lot of people up here are saying the same thing. He wasn\'t fully cranked up and Haynesfield was loose on an easy lead.

The problem with horses like QR and Blame who only run 5 times a year and their connections lay out their races months in advance is its very difficult to make legitimate excuses for them when they don\'t fire their best shot ?

I think miff\'s earlier post about the million dollar question being \" how could he have run by QR \" does not bode very well for QR in the classic ?

[Silver Charm]

Blame may have been in better form when he ran him down. Musket Man was also gaining which is more evidence that QR was not solid at all that day. I\'m totally lost on the two turn issue. I understand the Pleasant Taps who preferred one turn but not the other way around. Blame was only a length ahead of Fly Down. Maybe that\'s who he really is?

[twoshoes]

Sometimes you need to trust the first feeling that comes over you...... watching her effortlessly run down Rinterval & Switch late at a distance shorter than she wants these days my first thought was..... Switch, Rinterval? I\'ll hopefully be alive to three in the Classic. Lookin at Lucky, Blame and Quality Road. Zenyatta is a wonderful Hall of Fame mare and I for one I will never forget the thrills she gave us and the opprotunity to bet against her in the Classic against true Grade 1 males on a dirt sufrace has me chomping at the bit.I would add Fly Down to that if someone could get Nick to learn him a lead change in the stretch. What\'s up with that and why no questions about it?

[MonmouthGuy]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>  Blame was only a length ahead of Fly Down. Maybe that\'s who he
> really is?


In the above sentence, replace \"Blame\" with \"Zenyatta\" and \"Fly Down\" with \"Switch, Rinterval and St. Trinians\" and \"he\" with \"she.\"

[jbelfior]

Clearly an exercise for Blame. His pull-up was very strong and he will be tough to hold off at CD even with a moderate pace.

Hopefully the Zenyatta hype is enough to make her odds-on.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[MonmouthGuy]

I view Blame\'s JCGC performance the same way and think/hope you will get your wish.  Zenyatta at Bernadini type odds with Blame playing the role of Invasor.

Good luck.