Zenyatta Insight?

[alm]

My Southern California pal, who has had accurate information in the past, heard that Zenyatta is sore behind.  Information from a credible source.  Not enough for them to back off the race yesterday, but they might be looking closely at the result and how she comes out of it.

[Silver Charm]

Scoop of the Year if its true! Owner doesn\'t seem to be backing off on his goal of the Breeders Cup.

Will be curious to see if anyone from the Media picks up on this and starts asking questions or will the players who are not on the inside beleft to guess!

[Dana666]

Well, one thing I know for sure is that she was not cranked up for the race yesterday - all the clockers\' services said that. And just about every horse who runs on synthetic is sore behind. I wouldn\'t put too much stock in the soreness thing b/c they\'ll never run her at CD if she\'s not 100%. That much you know for sure, and if she was sore at all, she worked it out yesterday. If you look at her pattern on T-G as well as RAGs, these two \"off\" races are all by design; she\'ll likely run her top in the BC, and I believe we\'ll see her best race. If it\'s good enough, well that will be another matter entirely, but she\'ll lay it all down in the classic. No regrets either way, and from what I\'ve seen so far, there are no real killers in that field -- Blame is nice little horse but he was exposed yesterday, and I still believe QR doesn\'t want to go a step past a mile, perhaps his class will carry him, especially if the track is favoring speed, but it\'s not likely. Exciting stuff -- she could make a record no horse will ever touch if she pulls it off.

[miff]

Al,

Two things about what was observed:

1.Z definitely walked wide off her rear right after the race. Plain as day if you watched the whole TVG celebration feed.Don\'t know if Z does that all the time, if so,a non factor.

2.Z looked like she did not run just 20 minutes after the race. Never bowed her head,and was full of herself, not acting like anything was amiss, 72 hours will tell.

Z is very heavy(probably by design) and ran her normal race,last 5/16ths in like 29+ seconds, last 1/16th under 6 seconds.The slow pace and the horse she beat (Switch, slow coming in but will get a top) will earn her in the TG zero/slight neg range,if JB agrees.

Beyer stepped on the proverbial projection voodoo button, giving Z a Beyer of 100 but Richards Kid a Beyer of 105, notwithstanding Z project\'s out a bit faster than RK at the same distance.When you beat slow horses by small margins, you don\'t deserve to get a big fig, which is basically why speed fig guys believe Z may be a fraud.

Good luck with Blame. Had to give him a slight downgrade, but I feel that Stall may have \"cheated\" by under training the horse up to the Gold Cup.


Mike

[Silver Charm]

Miff this comment is not meant to disagree but who did Stall \"cheat\" other than the horse and the I guess the fans who took him at 4-5?

Since when do trainers pass on firing their best in a race like the Jockey Club when they are 4-5 to wait for a tougher spot when they may be 5 or 6-1. And before someone counters with the purse difference, which is clearly significant, Blame still doesnt have much of a resume to be a big Stallion prospect. He has some BIG wins but he doesnt need the Jockey Club added in also?

He won the Clark last year. He has the Foster and the Whitney this year. All very impressive. But this isnt a Skip Away or a Gentleman resume.

I dont get it. Guy had 7-8 weeks to get his horse ready, another 5 in between the next race and sends him out short because a prestigous Grade One is not his Goal. WTF??

[miff]

Silver,

I think that trainers would rather win the Derby or the BC Classic and maybe \'adjust\' into the prep.I\'m sure Stall wanted to win the JCGK but wonder if he tried to do it on the cheap, so to speak.I have a similar opinion on Zenyatta in that I don\'t think Sheriffs used all his bag of tricks for Saturdays race.

Just thought that was a very dull effort for Blame, a horse that always runs well,over many different surfaces.

Just pure guessing.

Mike

[alm]

The information came from a good source.  Hopefully there will be followup comments.  As for Dana666\'s idea that she was not cranked for the race, that\'s hard to fathom...she was all out to win...what does cranking mean for a horse that is racing regularly and training daily?  Breezes every 3 or 4 days?  In all liklihood if there was a lack of training in her regimen, it was due to the soreness that was mentioned...and running won\'t help that to go away.

[covelj70]

Alm,

I can tell you with alot of certainty that there are definitely things that a trainer will do when they want a horse fully \"cranked\" for a race as oppossed to just the normal training regime.

Just to be clear, I am not at all talking about illegal drugs.

I am talking about legal things such as:

1) doing up the hocks and the stifles (essentially a lube job for horses)

2) How hard they breeze the horse (how fast, how often, in company, etc)

3) chirpropratic adjustments

4) Hyperbaric chamber treatments to improve the horses oxygen flow

You can\'t do all of these things to horses before every race or they wouldn\'t hold together (and/or it would lose its impact) so the best trainers pick their spots about what to do and when to do it.

None of this settles the question about whether Zenaytta is sore or not or if JS had her fully cranked for this thing, just that there are indeed different actions that a trainer will take to have their horses fully \"cranked\" for races like the Derby and the Breeders Cup.

[Dana666]

Well, as far as Z being all out. I\'m not too sure since her ears were pricked and Smith was stationary at the wire! She looked like a short horse to me - running at about 50-75% of her peak. Bruno De Julio said this about her work of 09/25: \"Not sure Shireffs is really cranking her. . .has not asked her to work with workmates of any note. She is fresh. . .\" That\'s exactly how she looked in the post parade and during the race until she hit the wire. Of course, a little bit of a gambling game, imagine if she got beat? But they\'ll tighten the screws for the BC Classic. More important is her T-G sheet line: Looks beautiful! The same pattern as the year before.
 
2009: Negative 1\", 0+, 1-, negative 1 (BC Classic).
This year: Negative 1\", 1, Lady\'s Secret (I\'\'m guessing around a 1 or maybe even slower?), 2010 BC ?

Obviously she\'s going to fire huge in the BC classic. The masterful job Sheriffs has done is truly amazing.

FYI on RAG\'s:
2009 Same races 0, 1\", 5-, 1\" (BC Classic).
2010 Same races 1+, 5, (Lady\'s Secret say another 5 - we know it\'s an off race in any event?), BC?

The lead up to the BC looks even better on their sheets with that off number before the crushing effort in the Cup. I very seldom see a big race clearly, but this one I do. Only question might be did she lose a step this year? On RAG\'s maybe on T-G\'s no, and, of course, how fast are the other horses in the classic - I have no faith that QR is going to run a negative 5 or whatever in a mile and quarter race, not too worried about Blame, don\'t know about the others yet.

As I said before all horses get sore behind from running on synthetics. Del mar probably did that to her. They won\'t run her if there\'s anything really wrong. She\'s a 6 year old, you think she doesn\'t know how to run through pain and soreness? Please, that won\'t be an excuse if she loses.

[alm]

That\'s funny, I don\'t have a Zenyatta in my barn, but my trainer wouldn\'t run any of my horses without doing exactly what you think \'cranking\' a horse entails.  From the chiropractor on.  They would likely hurt themselves absent that type of oversight.

Zenyatta has been training AND racing regularly...I think it is unrealistic to assume they were sending her to the track short throughout a schedule like that.  And I hope she does jump up and run a big one, but she won\'t if she\'s sore and they\'ll declare her if it\'s worse than before this recent race.

How\'s that for a prediction.

[alm]

Were we watching the same race?  Smith hit the horse six times in the final eighth of a mile.  The chart reads that she was urged.

I mean, you can believe what you want to believe, but I will believe my eyes.

[smalltimer]

I don\'t know what the big deal is. There\'s a ton of guys on the forum that don\'t like her even if they think she isn\'t \"sore.\"  Its a helluva betting opportunity for those that think she\'s a fraud, plus there\'s gonna be all that \"adoration\" money coming in.  I don\'t know what more you can ask for.
If she shows up, she\'ll be ready to run a great race, surface and trip will be the deciding factor for her.  
I think she\'s gonna like that 1,234 feet stretch at Churchill after she\'s been closing on those 919\' and 990\' stretches on the California circuits.
You gotta hand it to her though, 6 years old and still willing to butt heads with the best male horses in the world.  
If she shows up healthy, gets a fair trip, she\'ll make her presence known by the time they reach to the finish line.
Peace out.

[RICH]

\"willing to butt heads with the best male horses in the world\"

We don\'t know if \"she\" is willing to meet males on the dirt. In my opinion, the end of the road is near, and at 3-1 or so I could never take her. A mare vs boys, on a relatively new surface at low odds, come on. All I could think of when I saw the last race was \"perfectly choreographed\"

[marcus]

Nothing surprises me - IMO , Maybe Z\'s got a polytrack related ailment and would welcome a dirt surface , and conversely on the other hand,  perhaps RA if ever un-retired might find synthetics to her liking . ..

[miff]

Small,

I think that the configuration of CD does not favor deep closers at 10f, long stretch or not.If you look at the history of the derby(3 yr olds, I know) it is rare that deep closers do as well as the long stretch would suggest.

Doubt there is any track configuration problem for Z who is handy and darted all over the place in more than one of her races.I\'ll agree with that the dynamics of the Classic will decide the winner.

You don\'t think she gets all the \"adoration\" money, I do.

Good Luck,
Mike