ROTW

[JimP]

I have watched the replay several times and I don\'t see what most of you seem to be seeing. Very early in the race the horse was positioned near the rail and was saving ground. After that initial placement I didn\'t see any other option that the jockey had until the stretch when he did go outside. He may have realized that he had a lot of horse under him, but I didn\'t see anything he could have done about it at that point. All the way around I saw other horses in front and to the outside of him. Looks like the jockey just caught a situation where there was no place to go. But that\'s just the way I saw it. Could someone point out at which point in the race the jockey could have taken him outside? I would like to rewatch the race to see what you guys saw.

[analizethis]

On a related note, on Saturday we had three grade ones on the turf in Canada and Euro imports won each of them when on the numbers there was no reason to believe that they would be that dominating. I presume that they all cycled back to new tops; two of the winners were first lasix and one with none.
Jerry, it would be wonderful if we had study, in conjunction with the BC edition, of the history of the impact of first lasix in Grade One races by age and/or sex would be great. This would, for the most part, isolate Euro invaders and be helpful in knowing what to factor into the European performance numbers.

[P-Dub]

Garcia was tracking and saving ground.  Something every last one of you bitches about when a jockey goes wide. Like everyone\'s favorite whipping boy Mike Smith.

Garcia saw a seam and tried to accelerate through it.  He had a split second to make that decision.  When he made his move, the 3 comes out and the 8 comes in. At that point he had nowhere to go.

He stands up on him, finally gets him outside and doesn\'t get there in time.

Its easy to say, after the fact, that he should have floated him wide entering the stretch. From where he was, saving ground, it was tough to do.

If he\'s 4 wide around the track and loses he is a bum for not saving ground.

Bad ride, how the hell can that guy swing at that pitch, what a horrible drive, on and on.

Everyone\'s an expert from the conforts of a sofa. These guys have to make split second decisions out there.

The ride wasn\'t as bad as you guys make it out to be, losing money changes the perspective.

[jbelfior]

P-Dub:

I didn\'t  bet a dime on the race. Multiple poor decisions.........period.  You know what I will bet? I\'ll bet that Garcia never rides that horse again!


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Rick B.]

What\'s ironic here, P-Dub, is that your boy \"Eight Wide\" Mike routinely finds a way to give *his* favorite late-running mount a place to do her running in a timely manner.
 
Garcia simply did not do so with Al Khali. Had he pulled back and tipped out sooner (like he eventually had to do anyway), instead of wasting precious time trying to plow through a non-existent hole, he would have won for fun.  

I\'ll ask you the same thing I asked someone earlier about Garcia\'s effort yesterday: do you think that was an acceptable ride? If you were Bill Mott, would you use the guy again on this horse?

[Silver Charm]

It was a poor ride! No ifs ands or buts about it.

Sweeping wide turns. 2nd longest stretch in N. America and when the running starts Garcia is hoping for room as Gomez had the outside taken away.

Having said that Garcia has never been afraid to come agressively up the rail. And there was considerable talk on the Telecast that the dogs were being taken up creating a newer running area that was going to be golden.

Perhaps that is what he was waiting for and then when the time came there were no options other than what he did and hope for the best.

[P-Dub]

Rick,

If I was the trainer, and I told him to keep him in the clear, then I wouldn\'t ride him again.

He was in a tough spot. Saved ground, got stuck with nowhere to run.

I don\'t know about the history of his rides, but although it wasn\'t the best ride, the guy got caught in a situation that was tough to get out of. Not the first guy to have that happen.

The fact it was a major GR1 race adds to it. Perhaps he should have known what was underneath him, and stayed a bit wide turning for home.  But there was a horse outside of him all the way around.

In hindsight, he should have stayed wide the whole way and given his mount a clear run. Again, its hindsight.

[SoCalMan2]

JimP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have watched the replay several times and I
> don\'t see what most of you seem to be seeing. Very
> early in the race the horse was positioned near
> the rail and was saving ground. After that initial
> placement I didn\'t see any other option that the
> jockey had until the stretch when he did go
> outside. He may have realized that he had a lot of
> horse under him, but I didn\'t see anything he
> could have done about it at that point. All the
> way around I saw other horses in front and to the
> outside of him. Looks like the jockey just caught
> a situation where there was no place to go. But
> that\'s just the way I saw it. Could someone point
> out at which point in the race the jockey could
> have taken him outside? I would like to rewatch
> the race to see what you guys saw.


I think the issue that people are seeing is that he could have done something different.  Look at it this way -- after the last turn, Garcia had three options -- (1) to look for an inside route, (2) pull back and go outside, or (3) spend some time looking for the inside route and then give up and pull back and go outside.  

He went with option (3) and I think most people dont have any problem with that.  

However, the question was WHEN to make the \"switch\".  In watching the race, he appears to wait several seconds too long before making the \"switch.\"  If he had done the same move he ended up doing, but several seconds earlier, it could have been the whole difference.  However, even though I lost considerable money on the race, I toss this ride in the unfortunate \"forgiveable mistake\" bin rather than the egregious burning of money bin.  Do I wish the guy had in mind the big picture -- i.e. he had to pass the entire field, simple mathematics dictate that the chances of the inside route opening up were close to nil? Of course yes, I wish he was thinking that.  However, i am sympathetic to those pointing out that the guy has to make split second decisions in an extremely challenging environment.  Not a lot different than Captain Kirk. We have the benefit now of seeing how close the race ended up being, but imagine how hard it is to guage how many seconds you need to get up in a finish like that?  It is pretty hard and it is a very delicate line drawing exercise.  Yes, I understand the big picture dictated erring on the side of making the switch earlier rather than later, but sometimes a guy is going to wait too long.  It happens unfortunately.

I am and was disappointed and I do think the ride was very unfortunate.  Trust me, my loss hurt not just because of the monetary loss, but the horse was a rare case of extremely high win pool value and I also had significant exotics with the 20-1 that did come in which I would have hit if Garcia had managed to finish first or second to either of the top two horses.  

But, I have to say the ride was not in the category of egregious rides that are unfathomable and make you want to quit the game.  It was a bum ride that can still fall within the zone of reasonableness of contemplating what a jockey should and can do.

[RICH]

From the sheets board


Well I have to say that those that criticize Garcia are in the majority.  The #1 critic of the ride was Garcia himself.  I flew back from Woodbine with Garcia and Prado.  Garcia said \"I\'m so mad at myself...if I just ease him out earlier instead we win for fun...he was much the best and wasn\'t even tired after the race...this was worse than Bowling Green race we got stopped completely here and had no time to left and he still almost got there...\"  So, I\'m sending Garcia a bill for $1,080,000 for the purse money he admits to have blown.  The problem with Garcia as Mott put it is his lack of seasoning and simply not making the right decisions at the right time.  Yet, horses run for this guy.  And, unlike some of the more experienced riders he\'ll save ground.  Clearly in this case he had an opportunity to ease him out to avoid the trouble as he readily admits.  The pain of thinking about what could have been is great.  But, there\'s solice in the fact that I know for sure the turn of foot he demonstrated in the Bowling Green was no fluke.  He ran right past Winchester that day and was clearly best yesterday showing he could even outfoot some pretty solid Euros.  Who to put on as jockey next time will be interesting.  I\'ll leave that up to Mott.   Until now our #\'s have been a little light but as I said to Len F. before the race he\'s never really developed from his first effort in the US as a 3 year old and you can just see it coming.  I felt he was on the edge of finally running some big boy #\'s.  Maybe he ran one yesterday.  If not, it\'s only part of the story.  Breeder\'s Cup?  We\'ll see how he came out of the race.  Mott will decide.  By the way, I purchased Al Khali off of his sheet when he ran a 7 3/4 last year against Cour. Cat.      Thanks, Adam Wachtel

[jbelfior]

I guess that ends the debate.


Good Luck,
Joe B.