5 first impressions from the BC sheets

[covelj70]

First of all, thanks to TG/JB/AB for putting these sheets up.  It\'s a great idea.

In terms of thoughts about the races, my first thought is that there are a higher than usual number of races where the favorites aren\'t the fastest horses or there are a bunch of others just as fast.

The Juv fillies turf where winter memories is going to be heavy chalk is one such example.  This is a very fast group of 2 yr old turf fillies, even before considering how some of the Euros may jump up first lasix

Second, the Turf mile is one of the best and most competitive races I have ever seen.  There are 5 quality horses that could run a 0 or better in there.  Maybe Goldikova is just that special and will beat them all again but this is the best group she has faced in this race and we will get paid for taking a stand against her.

Finally, if one takes the numbers at face value, Zenaytta has no shot.  While it\'s easy to say, \"yeah but her slower numbers have come on the synthetic\" the fact is that the 2 times she ran on the dirt, her figures were exactly the same as the other numbers around that time.  She seems to be hopelessly overmatched in this race.  As a bettor, that excites me greatly, as a horse fan, I wish that weren\'t the case.

[jbelfior]

Cove:

Could not agree more. There will be upsets (parimutual wise) and I\'m zeroing in on the F/M Turf, the Turf Mile, Sprint, and Classic for those opportunities.

As a fan of the game, retire Zenyatta now. As a bettor, get her in the starting gate....please!!!


As for Paddy O\'Prado it appears they know a 1 1/2 is out of range. Get him into the Classic gate as well and quickly please.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[martoon]

If you toss Zenyatta and Quality Road, what\'s the best spread play in these BC pools do you think?  Multi Race or Exacta, Trifecta etc..  ?

[jimbo66]

Martoon,

Two different tosses there and you didn\'t say how far you want to toss them.  

If you really believe that a horse whose last six figures in a row are faster or as fast as the fastest race anybody else in the field has ever run (except for an isolated top by Flydown) is a good \"toss\" and will finish out of the money, then by all means play vertically.

If you just believe that somebody else will win the Classic besides Zenyatta or Quality Road, but they will finish in the money, then play horizontally.

For the record though, I believe any kind of toss of Quality Road is bad gambling.  He is the fastest horse in the race, runs the big numbers every time, including a negative 3 and change at the 1 1/4 that many think he can\'t get.  And he won\'t be the favorite.  

It would be one thing to say try and beat him as the 2-1 favorite, but he has run consistently much faster than anything the favorite (Zenyatta) has ever run.  And will be twice the odds.  

Win or lose, tossing him in multi-race bets is a bad idea IMHO.  (which means I just made QR the favorite to finish last.........)

JIm

[martoon]

Jimbo...   I\'m actually more afraid to toss Zenyatta from the top or top 3 than Quality Road.  I think no matter where she finishes she\'ll be gaining down the stretch where I fear Quality Road might be backing up.  I\'ll probably play a few saver tickets with her on top but don\'t you have to take a shot tossing more than a couple of the stars if you want a shot to exploit the monster betting pool?  It\'s not a 20 horse field like the Derby so a couple of the favorites will have to cave for a huge payout in the verticals I would think.

[Halo Fire]

How do you guys feel about Etched cracking the tri?

Thanks for your thoughts.

[jimbo66]

Martoon,

I would agree that it is tough to toss Zenyatta from the Superfecta in that you can almost pencil in a negative 1, which could see her sucking up for 3rd or 4th.

The way I bet this race is that I play horizontally against Zenyatta.  I don\'t think she can win and she will be about 2-1 in the win pool and similar in doubles, pick-3s and pick-4\'s.  I hope to be alive into the Classic and not have to play vertically because my strongest opinion in the race is against Zenyatta winning, but I do believe she can suck up and get in the money.

I will use Quality Road, Lookin at Lucky and maybe Fly Down in the pick-4, with Fly Down the \"bomb\".  I was disappointed in the number LAL got in the sloppy Indiana race now that I see it, but I can see this as a race where an improving 3 year old steps up.  Zenyatta is slow with these, I really hated Blame\'s last race and Quality Road may be \"over the top\" in form.  (although, like I said, because QR has many races that win I can\'t throw him out of multi-race bets).

I will also stick my head in the lion\'s mouth and bet hard against Goldikova in the pick-4, because I like getting beat up by European females.  I married one, and have gone double barreled against Ouija Board twice and list and this will be my 3rd time loading up against Goldikova.  

Good luck

Jim

[Silver Charm]

I dont like Fly Down. The lack of lead changes is not good. The Big Top will have him well over the top by the time he arrives at CD. 5-1 odds he pulls a Gentleman in here.

Quality Road will have company on the front end. Maybe the modest works works in his favor because he will not be so geared up to go.

Zenyatta is Zenyatta and you do not go 19-19 by being a chump. She will hit the board for sure.

Blame is local steam and will be about 3-1 or 7/2. If you like QR this benefits you because it means he is now about 3-1. Just a little less than what Smarty Jones was in the Derby and a little better than Ghostzapper in the Classic.

Haynesfield should not be dismissed.....

Gio Ponte will dust the field in the Mile. Thats the second time I\'ve told you that!

[plasticman]

Are the BC sheets available already to purchase? Are they avail in booklet form or just online?

Charm, i love Gio Ponti also. He did benefit from a closing turf course and weak competition at Kee, i\'m not sure the CD turf will be as closing favoring and when you\'re a closer in a 14 horse field, you need to get lucky. I\'m not sure i love him at 2-1, but if he\'s a good price, i\'ll probably be on board.

[richiebee]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First of all, thanks to TG/JB/AB for putting these
> sheets up.  It\'s a great idea.
>
> In terms of thoughts about the races, my first
> thought is that there are a higher than usual
> number of races where the favorites aren\'t the
> fastest horses or there are a bunch of others just
> as fast.
>
> The Juv fillies turf where winter memories is
> going to be heavy chalk is one such example.  This
> is a very fast group of 2 yr old turf fillies,
> even before considering how some of the Euros may
> jump up first lasix


Covel:

The morning lines I have seen have Winter Memories somewhere between 3/1 - 7/2.

At those odds, as the kooky Russian gazillionaire says in the Direct TV commercials, \"I jump in it.\"

1) She is the product of an outstanding racemare.

2) She won her two starts in dominant fashion.

3) Check out the final time in the Miss Grillo v the final time in the Pilgrim.

4) A lot of her nearly as fast competitors seem to race forwardly, while she
will be waiting to pick up the pieces.

5) To me visually impressive and quite powerful looking, bringing to mind the
famous D Wayne quote when he was asked what he looked for in a young filly at the
sales: \"A head like Candice Bergen and a butt like a washerwoman\".

I wish the race were 1-1/16th, giving Lezcano extra ground to get out of whatever
trouble he might manage to find on the tighter turned CD course.

[covelj70]

Richiebee!!!!!


What\'s up buddy.

Thanks for the thoughts on Winter Memories.

I know she looks like she could be a freak but there are a bunch of really fast fillies in this race (faster than the Juv boys) and I am going to look for value with one of the others in this race.

She\'s really fast but she\'s not much/any faster than several others in here and if I can get 10-1 on one of the ones that are almost as fast (especially the Euros that seem quite talented), I will go that way and just protect with Winter Memories in the multi-race bets.

BTW, I love the idea of bribing Mrs. Richiebee to vacate living room downs.

I take a different approach.  I take Mrs. Covelj70\'s dad to the BC with me every year so this goes off as a famiily affair!

[Ill-bred]

Richie-

I share your admiration for Winter Memories. She is a really nice two-year-old filly, but I thought I\'d point out a couple things.

First, I think that\'s a terrible ML odds for her. I expect her to be one of the heaviest chalks of the BC. (Although if it is right, \"I jump in it.\")

Also, I would not work off any comparisons between the Ms Grillo and Pilgrim, since one was run on the inner turf and the other the outer.

If Winter is bet to underlay status, I also really like Kathmanblu.

[richiebee]

Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie-
>
>
> Also, I would not work off any comparisons between
> the Ms Grillo and Pilgrim, since one was run on
> the inner turf and the other the outer.
 

Ill - bred:

Thanks for pointing that out -- the 2+ second difference
seemed a little suspicious-- I was thinking faulty teletimer.

These races were traditionally run at AQ where there
is only one turf course.

[Ill-bred]

Was still a monster effort, albeit on soft ground...She was going so fast the jock just had to concentrate on steering straight.

[marcus]

I agree - and nice take jimbo and quite a few others in here as well imo . Been in the \"think Tank\" about what to do with First Dude possibly going forward off of that pair of 3 yo tops - personally that pattern scares me a little , could be potent they way I\'m looking at it and a big price too . Best Racing Luck in this years BC and Always !