Is there anyone on this board that thinks Zenaytta will win the Classic?

[FrankD.]

I\'m also a bit surprised by TGAB\'s post and can\'t view Z running down this field as a realistic conclusion. Maybe I have drunk too much Kool Aide ?

The winner of this race will be HOY, few can argue that but there is no real value in the vertical betting at all. Z will certainly be the favorite maybe at 5/2 and LAL the 4th choice maybe at 5/1. It\'s more probable that the tri and super could be the top 4 choices in some order and I can\'t see anyone other than the top 4 possibly winning ?

Blame\'s last race really bothers me and I be surprised to see QR back in negative 5 land but will have to use both on a smaller horizontal ticket. It\'s difficult to come up with excuses for horses that have a mapped out campaign and will only run a handful of times. I do feel that QR is over the top but a negative 2 with all the question marks may win this race ?

So for me it\'s Lucky and hoping for some big prices leading up to the classic for a non life changing but a pick 3 or 4 that you can brag about for a bit !!!

Good luck to all,

FD

[covelj70]

Thanks to everyone for the great thoughts.

Really really appreciated.

Gives me alot to think about and fortunately, we still have about 9 days to do the thinking.

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,
No doubt QR has tracked and sit off the lead in some of his best performances.  
Let\'s look at those examples:
Mar 28, 2009. Going 9 furlongs,  QR sat behind that incredible 9 furlong horse, Casey\'s on Call and swallowed him at the 3/4 marker;
Feb 6, 2009.  Going 9 furlongs, QR sat behind that other great animal, Past The Point and swallowed him between the 3/4 and mile marker;
Sept 4, 2010.  Going 9 furlongs, QR sat behind that other world beater, Arcodoro and swallowed this one at the 3/4 marker.
In both of his 10 furlong efforts, the Travers and The Gold Cup he gave way in the final 1/8th.  In the Travers he was sitting off that horse, Our Edge, and then was swallowed up by Summer Bird.  In the Gold Cup, QR sat off Tizway and was again swallowed up by Summer Bird.
Has he ever really passed a good horse at 9 furlongs?  
Haynesfield may be, as you say, \"cheap speed\", but I suspect he\'ll run farther and faster than Casey\'s On Call, Past The Point and Arcodoro. I could be wrong.  
In the Travers and Gold Cup, QR sat on 46.4/111 and 49.3/113. If you draw a line through his races at 6.5 furlongs, flat Mile races it says the pace of the race hasn\'t beaten him, the distance has.  

I have the belief that Zenyatta will adapt to whatever pace scenario unfolds.  In her last 10 outs she has sit off fractions like these, and still found a way to get the win:
47/111  48/111.1/135.2  48.4/113.3    49.2/112.4  47.4/111.4/136(10 f)
47.3/111/135.3   48/112.3/137.2 (OP)  47.2/111.1/136.4   50.3/115  48.3/113

Neither Haynesfield nor QR have thrown anything faster than a 111.2 in their last races, so it\'s not like they\'re just gonna show her that much faster fractions than she\'s encountered before.  They run 1.35/1.36/137 at the mile marker, so I would expect her to be in the same position in the race as her history has shown.  Its fair to say, Mike will have Z sitting in a position waiting for the front runners to back up and make her run, it doesn\'t mean Z will have to change her normal running style. I can assure you that Mike Smith knows what color the 1/4, 1/2 mile and mile markers are.  Conversely, I think horses like Haynesfield, QR and a couple other speed horses will have to alter their preferred running styles due to the running style of others on the front end.  Z should probably just run her normal race and it may or may not be good enough. Again, I could be wrong. Good luck Jimbo.
Peace out.

[smalltimer]

Jim,
I\'m glad I started the dialogue, I was afraid you had a topic that no one was gonna touch. At this point, it\'s pretty civil dialogue and that\'s even better!!

[richiebee]

Frank:

Agree with all that you\'ve said, but if Fly Down wins the Classic is he HOY?

If FD wins the Classic and Zen is a close second is she HOY?

Jimbo mentioned a ticket without the 2 Amazons, Goldie and Zen. Maybe the way to
go is to toss the 2 short priced Euro turf faves, Goldie and Workforce.

The race I am looking forward to is the Juvie where my suspicion is that the 2
high profile NY based 2YOs, Uncle Mo and Boys at Costconova, might be short colts
and without the proper foundation for a two turn 1-1/16th. Know I am going to get
killed here by the true Kool Aid fanatics, the ones who dont even bother mixing
the powder with water.

[FrankD.]

Rich,

Can\'t see FD running with these IMO after that big top but a very good point for HOY if any other than the top 4 win the Classic.

That should provide some lively debate on here !!!

As for Kool Aide ? State your flavor of chocie ! Lime here.

[Silver Charm]

Just sayin guys! Laying off Haynesfield and First Dude. Maybe one more.

Negative # whatever this will add up!

[MonmouthGuy]

There were Zenyatta-like odds that you would be the first and most verbose respondant to the OP.

I find it interesting that you feel the need to editorialize by using terms like \"incredible 9 furlong horse\" \"great animal\" and \"world beater\" to demean the competition that QR has faced and at the same time draw a conclusion that the pace scenarios and quality of competition that Zenyatta has been facing in the Cal restriced state bred graded stakes races are equivalent to open company G1s.

What are the adjectives that you would use to describe \"Rinterval,\" \"St. Trinian\'s\" and \"Switch.\"

If Zenyatta wins, it will because she runs a figure that she has never run before on a track and distance (on dirt) that she has never run before.  If you are comfortable at 2-1 odds, god bless you.

[Footlick]

I think you have to decide if you feel she has run as fast as she could run before, or if she can make a dramatic figure improvement going from synthetic to dirt.  If you really feel that she has been all out in any of her races, then you do and that is the figure you would go by.  If you feel that there is another gear there, then you go have to extrapolate how much improvement you think she can make.  But, she is one of the pure distance horses running in the BCC. No matter what she has been running against, again this year the paces have been so slow that those horses have run their last 1/16 in 6 flat or close to it most of the time.  That means she has consistently and fairly easily run her\'s in 5 and change. She ran her last mile in the BC last year in a shade under 1:34, I believe and she negative split the whole race and the last 1/4 in 22 and change, I think.  I don\'t have her fractional times in front of me so I am going by memory, which could be wrong.  I feel she has the ability to run down any field she faces at anytime.  She just has the biomechanics that keeps her accelerating with each stride, hitting her top speed at the wire.  If her odds are too low, then that is fine.  Then you have to decide whither to have a save ticket with her included in the gimmicks.  Can you afford to have her spoil your possible big win because you \"think\" that she can\'t do it.  By the way- thanks to all on this blog for being informative.  I\'ve never been a figure handicapper but I find it very interesting listening to all the comments.  Sorry this post was a little long.

[TGJB]

Covello, you did this to annoy me, right?

For the record, Alan was not speaking for Thoro-Graph. And I suspect not even for himself, you never know-- he was making the case Covello wanted someone to make.

Sure, you can come up with a scenario where Z wins. It involves a combination of her running her best and several other horses not running theirs (or getting bad/wide trips, which is more likely, especially with LAL), or her running better than she ever has before. (I am willing to say that the \"S. Pace\" and \"h\" races don\'t accurately reflect what she could have run, because she didn\'t run tops, but there is no reason to believe she could have run faster than her top). And either way, she has to not lose much ground coming from last.

She\'s consistent, and very likely to get a check, not likely to win.

Wonder what those mares Z was beating in photos would go off at in this race...

[smalltimer]

Monmouth,
My point was that jimbo had said that QR had sit off the pace with a horse to target and had been able to go by.  My point was those horses he sat off of were not elite type animals.  Zenyatta doesn\'t join this part of the discussion because she\'s not gonna set off horses. She\'s just gonna try to run them down.

Horses that you mention in California, I would just use the adjective as the latest group beaten by Zenyatta.  I felt like St. Trinian\'s prior to her injury was as good or better than the very best the east coast had to offer.

Regarding the odds of 2/1 you mention. I don\'t think there\'s one single horse in this race, including Zenyatta, who merits 2/1 in this field.  Okay?  Anything less than about 5/1 would not be acceptable to me.  I did take the liberty in February when I was in Las Vegas to put a modest sum of money in the futures on Zenyatta at 14/1, so I guess I\'ll just have to live that.  

Next objection?

[TGJB]

You \"felt\" that way about St. Trinian\'s, did you? Too bad we don\'t have a way of actually measuring that.

[alm]

Truly an excellent question about the mares she beat.  Funny too, in a deeply funny way.

[smalltimer]

Footlick,
These are good points. I\'m not a figure guy either, so maybe I wouldn\'t like Zenyatta\'s chances either.
I am a believer that either a horse can carry the assigned weight and wants the distance or they don\'t.
I\'m sure the forum will be glad to hear this will include my last set of pace/fractions on this topic.  Sorry to state the obvious, but 10 furlongs is the same distance in California, New York or Kentucky.

QR sat on a 23.1 quarter in the Travers and got the final mile in 137.3;
QR sat on a 25.0 quarter in the Gold Cup and got the final mile in 140.3;

Haynesfield sat on a 24.3 quarter and got the final mile in 135.4.

Blame sat on a 25.2 quarter and got the final mile in 137.4.

Zenyatta sat on a 27.1 quarter and got the final mile in 133.2

I\'m willing to trade lengths at the start for lengths at the finish.

Good luck to all.

[Funny Cide]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This isn\'t written to disagree with your
> conclusion, but to disagree with just about
> everything else you wrote in this post.
>
> Zenyatta\'s running style was detrimental to her
> winning?  Did you read Jerry\'s post above in which
> he explains how it was well suited to winning on
> poly?

I don\'t need Jerry or any other person to tell me what I can determine for myself.  I know all about synthetics and their impact, and the fact is that it can\'t explain away win after win after win by this mare, regardless of pace, regardless of competition.  Blind Luck\'s a top filly with an identical running style and she\'s not undefeated on the synth.  
 
> Pletchers not as good as Baffert?  How do you
> conclude that?  By his results and the record or
> by your passion?

Let me know when Pletcher gets within a stone\'s throw of Baffert in big races where horses are targeted months out.
 
> If Lucky wins this race he won\'t do it \'with
> Baffert\' as you suggest (Baffert will be in the
> stands)...he will do it with his talent, which a
> dozen other trainers could have brought out in
> him.

Something against Baffert?  
 
> Blame does nothing for you?  I\'ll tell you that I
> wouldn\'t mind owning him so he could do for me
> exactly what he has done.

Who said I wouldn\'t mind owning him?  That\'s a stupid statement.  Do you say that every time you hear someone take a stand against a horse?  
 
> As for Zenyatta\'s numbers fooling me, they didn\'t
> fool me last year...I bet Gio Ponti because I
> hoped the best grass horse in the race would beat
> her on that b------t track surface.  God Bless her
> if she wins this race and good picking on your
> part...but please line up your reasoning with
> reality.

Gio Ponti didn\'t win, did he?  Congratulations for picking the wrong horse.  May you have equal success this year!