Is there anyone on this board that thinks Zenaytta will win the Classic?

[smalltimer]

Those horses Zenyatta was winning photos on would be 99/1 or so.

Rachel after her last race would have been what?  15/1?  20/1?  30/1?  
I felt Rachel would collapse at 10 furlongs, and I kinda was right. She wouldn\'t have been given much more of a chance to win the Classic than those Cal females.

The good news is we won\'t have to talk about Zenyatta in another 10 days or so.

[MonmouthGuy]

That was my point about Smallertimer\'s post.  He made some very disparaging comments about the horses QR was facing in his 9F races, but ignores the fact that Rinterval is on the \"also eligible list\" for the Filly and Mare sprint.

[smalltimer]

I didn\'t refer to any of them as \"slugs\", \"slow rats\", or some of the less than complimentary names that have been thrown at Zenyatta.  People have repeatedly referred to the \"tomato cans\" that Z has been beating.  
Peace out.

[TGJB]

You are nuts if you think RA wouldn\'t have been much shorter than those Cal fillies-- she\'s a HOTY with a win over older males. And even with the losses the only reason she would not be one of the 4 favorites would be because of the distance, which is not true about the others.

[TGJB]

I\'m pretty sure nobody on this board has referred to Z as a slug or a slow rat. That\'s known in the trade as a straw man. The lawyer on the other side of my RA suit specializes in them.

[miff]

Small,

I take pride in authorship. Lets keep the jargon correct,it\'s garbage cans, not tomato cans.

Thinking of shorting California Bonds figuring if Z loses the whole State will fail.

Mike

[smalltimer]

I didn\'t imply anyone referred to Zenyatta as a slug or a slow rat. But, multiple times her competition was denegrated.

[Uncle Buck]

I\'m kind of baffled by this thread to begin with. Asking if the greatest handicap horse of all time has a legit shot to win a race she dominated last year? Are you serious? Really? Nobody in the history of thoroughbred horse racing has accomplishged what she has. Not Cigar. Not Citation. Not Big Red. Racing surface be damned.

She is the most accomplished 10F horse in the field by a mile, literally. One thing TG figures cannot account for is a horse\'s intelligence, their heart and their will to win. She has these over a barrel.

As for the Classic, I see zero value in betting the race as a stand alone event. All four of the horses that can win this will be 5-1 or shorter. Will have to play aggresive win parlays, double, pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s to make it worth playing.

The mere fact that Sherriffs and company are shipping Z 2,800 miles to run against the top male horses in the world on hard Kentucky dirt puts to rest the year\'s long debate on this board of how she\'s a sythetic specialist who never races anybody.

It will be a beautiful site seeing her picking \'em off one by one on the far turn as she gathers momentum like a teal blue locomotive. In my opinion they\'re all runnign for second money. By 3 or 4 lengths.

Who do you guys like tonight in the baseball game? The Bay Area is going crazy.

[smalltimer]

I never suggested Rachel would not be a lot shorter than those Cal fillies in this race.  
You could have thrown everyone of them out this year, even Rachel.
If her camp thought she had a snowballs chance in hell, she\'d have been there.

[smalltimer]

Come on Mike.  We know where the slow rats and slugs come from.  Others used tomato cans, although garbage can could fit too.  LOL
Califormin seems to be struggling just a bit financially, so go for it.
But, 50/50 the good ole US Government will be there to bail them out along with New York.

[jimbo66]

Buck,

Ok, even if I give you that Zenyatta is the smartest horse in the race.  We\'ll see if that intelligence carries her to be able to run any faster than she has before.  

Two things strike me as absolutely amazing about this thread:

1.  The references to what Zenyatta did in last year\'s Classic as being so meaningful.  If the last two year\'s Breeders Cups taught us ANYTHING at all, it is that the results of the races on Pro-Ride in the BC had no association with dirt form.  Countless fast dirt horses fired duds. Horses that would have zero shot on dirt, won the Pro-Ride races.  Midnight Lute would be the only exception I can think of that won on both surfaces in the BC.

2.  P-Dub didn\'t have a dime on Zenyatta in last year\'s Classic.  Next thing you know, he is going to say he never bets on Mike Smith because he is concerned about the wide trips.  


Jim

[MonmouthGuy]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 All four of the horses that can win this will be 5-1 or shorter.
Will have to play aggresive win parlays, double, pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s to make it worth playing.



I disagree that only four horses can win.  I would expand that list to 6.  And I believe that Zenyatta may be the only horse under 5-1, and that there will almost likely be no more than one other horse at 5-1 (LAL).  I think Blame and QR will go off in the 6/8-1 range respectively.

[TGJB]

That\'s twice. \"Wouldn\'t have been given mor of a chance than those Cal fillies\" and saying she would go off 15-30 to 1 is more than suggesting.

Actually, my guess is it was the other way around-- if they thought they had a chance of LOSING to Z they wouldn\'t be there, and they do so, they\'re not. Neither Jackson or Asmussen likes to take shots. And why do you assume the handicapping opinions of the connections are relevant in this or any case? Physical opinion, yes-- and if she\'s not right she shouldn\'t run.

[Footlick]

Just another comment.  Zenyatta\'s wins are extremely measured.  I know they don\'t usually do that in this age, but it reminds me of what Shoe used to do with Forego.  And before anybody starts I am not saying she is as good as Forego.  But everybody has to realize that if Smith pushed her those wins would be by a much larger margin.  They are very, very measured IMO.  Thanks again for the blog.

[alm]

Help me out here....exactly what did Shoe \'do\' with Forego, other than sit on a very fast horse and keep out of the way of his ability?

And you really think Smith hasn\'t been pushing this filly?  Count \'em: he whacked her 8 times from the head of the lane in her last race.  These were love taps???