I think the better question is how can we as handicappers avoid mixing our egos into our perceptions of her chances? If one loves her or hates her, does one need to be proven correct to have one\'s \"opinion\" validated - either way one camp or the other will be proven \"brilliant\" for their predictions. It is interesting how much ego can trump honest reality and perceptions get real cloudy when handicapping such epic races. I for one know the downside of needing to be right for all the wrong reasons - in the end such hubris kills.
I tried to attach (but I can\'t figure out how?) a so-called Ragozin insider\'s point of view (we have the T-G point of view so I figured let\'s see the other side, too) from The Thoroughbred Times. In short, he doesn\'t think she can do it based on the numbers as there are at least four horses as good as she. I have no prediction that I can stand by except to say that the mere definition of a once in a lifetime champion is he or she reaches down and finds something more in the time of their greatest challenge - the whole is more than the sum of it\'s parts so to speak. That information isn\'t going to found on either a Ragozin or Thorograph Sheet. Why does one player hit three home runs in a world series game and another strike out three times? Some athletes simply become more than they have ever been in that one moment of greatness. We\'ll see if she has that stuff inside her one way or the other.
The only suggestion I have as to how to play the race is to do it like you do any other race and map out your strategies. I want to wait until closer to the race when I factor in weather conditions, post positions, etc. All I hope for is a fast track with good weather and no excuses. Churchill can be a rather biased strip at times (especially big days right after rain!). I\'ve seen that track have a golden rail like none other, and I\'d hate to see something wacky like that affect her performance - but of course equine champions beat track biases and all adverse conditions anyway. Anyone who says they know one way or the other is just guessing. Without any other information, I think Lucky is probably her biggest threat because he is still improving and the others have shown what you\'ll get. I never thought of QR as a mile and a quarter horse, he\'s a miler to me, and one of the best. Someone else I guess could step up, but, hopefully, the long Churchill stretch and good weather will leave no excuses for anyone. If she wins, it will be hard to argue that she\'s not one of the greatest of all time or the greatest, from any objective point of view - what other horse in history has done what she will have done? If she loses, the doubters will rise up, confident in their negativity and remind us that she never beat anyone and ran slow numbers on plastic tracks in her own backyard.
Good luck to all horses and handicappers alike, and may everyone come home safely.
