Is there anyone on this board that thinks Zenaytta will win the Classic?

[FrankD.]

Cove,

I can\'t argue with the \" rage factor \" when beat by the fastest horse. That is of course with the exceptions of forecasting a bounce or 3/5 odds.

There is no doubt that QR is far and away the fastest horse in the race and if he is in negative 7 or negative 5 land he is home at the 1/8 pole and no one will catch him. That is a big but and I have to look back at the very slow fractions he set in the Whitney as I watched in disbelief as Blame ran him down ? Inexcusable is all I can come up with as I watched the reply 10 times and am accounting for the 5 lbs. in weights.

He is rested and if he fires you will be getting 3 or 4/1 on the fastest horse in the race. I\'m still very suspect of him at 10 furlongs and can\'t see him running close to his top here.

Applause for shaking up JB 9 days until lift off !!!

Good luck,

FD

[Funny Cide]

smalltimer Wrote:
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> Jimbo,
> You say, \"She did it on Pro Ride against a field
> that has had one horse come back and win since
> that race.  It is one of those negative key races
> for those that believe in those things.\"
> What about Gio Ponti\'s 2 wins?  What about
> Richard\'s Kid? What about Awesome Gem? What about
> Girolamo? What about the 2 wins by Twice Over?
> Off the top of my head, thats 5 different horses
> that account for at least 7 different wins since
> the BC Classic in \'09.
> Is that still a negative key race when nearly 1/2
> of the field has won again?
> Or are you just talking about those who came back
> and won on ProRide, if that is how you sculpt your
> template?
>
> Funny story here:  Last year we had a really nice
> 3 year old that ran 3 Grade 1 races at a mile and
> a quarter.  He cut the following fractions in
> those races:
> 23.4/47.1/111.3/136.3/202.4
> 25.2/50.0/113.1/137.3/202.2
> 24.3/48.3/112.3/136.2/201.2
>
> For 3 consecutive races he kept getting a little
> faster at 10 furlongs, based upon the final times,
> his ability to close and finish was not
> questioned.
>
> In that 3rd race, at the 1/2 mile pole he was 10
> lengths in front of Zenyatta, at the 3/4 mark he
> was 12 1/2 lengths in front of her, at 1 Mile he
> was 2 lengths in front of her, at the stretch call
> he was 1/2 length in front of her, and at the wire
> he was 3 widening lengths behind her.  Yep, Summer
> Bird was a nice horse and I don\'t see where he
> suffered moving from the sloppy tracks at Belmont
> and Saratoga to the Pro Ride that day.
> I wish he had remained healthy, cause he owned QR
> last year.
> Good luck Jimbo

Rip Van Winkle also won a G1 over in Europe this year.

I don\'t know how important or unimportant what older horses do later on.  It\'s not like they\'re not a known quantity by the time they run in the Classic.

[miff]

\"I tried to attach (but I can\'t figure out how?) a so-called Ragozin insider\'s point of view (we have the T-G point of view so I figured let\'s see the other side, too) from The Thoroughbred Times. In short, he doesn\'t think she can do it based on the numbers as there are at least four horses as good as she is.\"


Dana,

Don\'t know who the Rag insider you mention is, but on their stuff she is circling to her top(a figure equal to a neg -2 1/2 on TG)


Mike

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> -I haven\'t written anything about Zenyatta or
> Snith in quite awhile. Standard bullrush??
> Whatever. A bit erroneous to say standard
> bullrush. You write non-stop about Zenyatta,
> Smith, the connections....all with the same point
> of view. You want to talk about tired??  Give me a
> break pal.

I write non-stop about Zenyatta & co.?

You got the wrong guy, bud. Unless you can cough up some evidence.

> - The most strident of backers.  So you\'re saying
> , what Rick, there are only 2 of those??

You got caught fabricating what I wrote, and now, what -- you want to argue specifics?
 
> You seem a bit sensitive. Or does having the same
> undefeated horse slap you around at the mutuel
> windows contribute to you bitter attitude??

Oh puh-leeze. If anybody on this forum is overly sensitive regarding things written about Zenyatta, Mike Smith, etc., it\'s YOU, hands down. I\'m not the one that JB has to continually admonish to tone it down around here.
 
And you are about to break your leg jumping to conclusions about Zenyatta beating me at the windows. I bet one race that she was in: last year\'s Classic. That\'s it. The rest of her races were largely unbettable. (Oooh, can I say that without offending your delicate sensibilities?)

If you would slow down, take a spoonful of your anti-bile medication, and go re-read my response to poster Funny Cide, you would see that my reply was not a slap at Zenyatta, or her supporters, per se -- it was the idea that any winning bet is a good bet. That\'s rubbish. Your subsequent, misguided responses to my post are pretty much eligible for the same scrap heap.

[TGAB]

As far as any references to classhandicapper, frankly, I don\'t recall much of what he wrote, other how than the races are run may affect the performance. But we\'re dealing with an external element here--synthetic tracks. Other than that my short term memory is just that.

As far as the 3 point jump making close to zero sense, well maybe your right--if this were on synthetic I would agree, no top. But the dirt surface adds uncertainty. As I said, there\'s a chance the 2nd Oaklawn run was an off race. You mention 16 in a row within the band, but only two were on dirt and she jumped 5 points first dirt to start the skein. So far she shows 1 big dirt top and technically a pair-up. Yes, 6yos infrequently run new tops, and while she hasn\'t really improved in 2-1/2 years she also hasn\'t deteriorated, a lick. New tops at 6 are infrequent, and it would be easier to say the jump was more likely if she were 5, but she didn\'t race on dirt last year and the sire category is 5 and up. To reiterate the points are: 1. she got to the races as a late 3yo, ergo she\'s much more likely to hit her peak later than tradition as well, at age 5, or in this case, 6. The pedigree data slant towards favoring this contention. Long  term, the fact that she\'s neither developed, nor deteriorated suggests to me that she might have another level in her which I project the new surface may enable. Short term, she\'s cycling forward.

As for underestimating her, well, she\'s beat us every time. However Jimbo, I accept your explanation as to making bets trying to beat her. And I do agree she\'s hasn\'t faced much in the last two years, especially this year.

As for the others in the race, I was trying to make a case for Zenyatta. QR could certainly run big and even his bad ones are good. Blame only has one bad effort, one. And I wouldn\'t be that dismissive of Haynesfield. He\'s already outrun his pedigree which tells you he\'s a freak of sorts. He has speed and he\'s only developed a point. Five of his last seven have been top efforts.

10%, 15% -- the chances she\'ll run the new top. It\'s hard to put a number on it. But I don\'t think it\'s 0 or less than 5 percent.

[jimbo66]

TGAB,

Fair enough.  I understand you were making a case for her, which is what that troublemaker Covello asked for (he put you in this spot).

But to be honest, even if I give you the 10 to 15% chance of a new top (which I don\'t), it is a moot point.  She will be 2-1, 5-2 tops, and needs a new top to win.   At 10% she would need to be 9-1 to be fair valuee and at 15%, she would need to be 6.67 to 1.  She won\'t be near those odds.

Quality Road needs a pair up to win.  He will be 2 or 3 times Zenyatta\'s price (somewhere between 9-2 and 8-1). I give him a much better chance to pair then the 6 year old mare to run the new top and like I said, I get 2 or 3 times the value.

LAL needs a new top to win, but is an improving 3 year old, whose bet is as good as anybody elses except QR and the aberrational Fly Down performance.  I will take the late season 3 year old colt to run the new top ahead of the 6 year old mare, as well.  (again at better value, likely double her price again).

We will see.  Should be interesting.  Hoping to be alive horizontally in the pick-4 to QR and LAL, with a few tickets covering Fly Down.  

9 days and counting!!

Good luck

[mjellish]

Hey Jimbo,

I think you hit this right on the head.  The issue for me is not can Zenyatta win.  It\'s, is she a good bet.  From the looks of it she will need to run a new top as a 6 year old, on dirt, close from the back and avoid a wide trip to get there.  That\'s a tall order.  Especially when I see all those 4w 5w comments in her running line.  The synthetics seem to be much more forgiving for this type of move than a dirt track, especially Churchill.

The way I see it, you can\'t know for sure if a horse can do something they\'ve never done before.  It\'s more a matter of trying to factor how likely or unlikely that is to happen. So if I\'m trying to figure out something like whether or not a horse can get a good trip or run a new top, I have to figure the odds into that somehow to compensate for the risk I am taking.  If I\'m getting high odds I can usually tend to compensate for that risk, so I will bet a race like the horse can do what it needs to do.  And if I\'m getting low odds I will tend to bet the race like the horse can\'t.  

Given that Z is likely to go off at around 5/2 or so at best, I don\'t think you have a lot or room to compensate for the risk.  So for me, the issue of whether or not she can win is a mute point.  She obviously knows where the wire is, seems to be unaffected by early pace, is undefeated, etc.  So she COULD win.  But she is absolutely unbettable at those odds.  So I\'ve got to play this one as if she has 0% chance to win.

I agree that there will be a fair amount of value to be found by playing against her horizontally in the multi-race exotics.  But I also think you can find value in playing against Z in the exacta given the way the public likes to play the favorite over and under their primary horse in this pool.  And if it rains I think you can play into it even more confidently.

[P-Dub]

You\'ve got some serious issues bro.  Good luck with them.

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> You\'ve got some serious issues bro.

I certainly have an issue with someone who regularly pulls the \"Cut, Snip and Obliterate\" act on his fellow forum members, then claims someone else has \"serious issues\" when they do it. You got me on that one.

Good luck with the Breeders Cup, Paul, and win or lose, may Zenyatta come home safe and sound to a happy retirement.

[miff]

\"And I wouldn\'t be that dismissive of Haynesfield. He\'s already outrun his pedigree which tells you he\'s a freak of sorts. He has speed and he\'s only developed a point. Five of his last seven have been top efforts\"

TGAB,

There is more speed now with Morning Line showing up but under-rated Haynesfield has never been beaten when he makes the front.

Mike

[Dana666]

The basic premise of his article was that on RAGS anyway she\'s quite a bit slower this year than past years. That was his argument against thinking she\'ll run a new top, which in his opinion, she would need to do to win it. Sorry I couldn\'t post it, the link they sent me is dead.

[miff]

Dana,

I\'m thrilled that people are putting money into the pools that are solely talking about who will run tops and not the 5-6 other factors that will determine most of the outcomes.

Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Miff wrote:

\"I\'m thrilled that people are putting money into the pools that are solely talking about who will run tops and not the 5-6 other factors that will determine most of the outcomes.\"

Actually, most of the outcomes will be decided by seven factors, Miff, but one will be decided by eight.

[miff]

Rich,

Pick a number,some have 10 factors, but info overload can kill you.

Mike

[P-Dub]

Rick,

I didn\'t cut and snip.  I challenged you on one of the points you made. Thats all. From there it went a bit off course.

Agree to disagree. I\'ve got nothing against you Rick. Good luck as well.