BIG-TIME Work for Zenyatta!!!

[smalltimer]

Sekrah,
I think anyone that doesn\'t like Zenyatta\'s chances are in a great position.  Barring something crazy, she\'s gonna take a ton of money and that represents an increased value for any other horse in the race.
If she gets beat she\'s nothing more than a plastic fraud, if she runs great and wins or narrowly loses, some will ultimately give her credit for her ability.  
At the end of the day, she will at least be looked upon as a great female who once again was willing to risk her unbeaten streak in order to make history.
The easy way would have been the Distaff or skipping the BC altogether.  
Peace out

[Silver Charm]

Mr B earlier today on TVG said this was the BEST Prep work before a BIG race he had EVER seen.

She is Locked and Loaded Boys!

[jbelfior]

Nice job by 60 minutes.

Almost makes me want to not bet and just root for her......almost. Always liked that Andy Rooner, born just outside Saratoga Springs.

Enjoy the upcoming week everyone


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Dana666]

Yeah, if that footage shown on 60 Minutes is recent, she\'s looks absolutely amazing. I thought it was a great story, too. I had no idea she was so mellow off the track, perhaps that\'s why she\'s lasted so long. If Mike Smith is right and there\'s more to her that she\'s never reached, she\'ll win - if not, there\'s no way to say for sure. She has such an amazing efficiency to her stride and terrific flexibility in her rear end when she pushes off. I do agree with Smith, if she wins, she\'ll be the greatest ever. One thing for sure, we\'ll never see anything close to her for the rest of our lives. This will be my last post until after the race. I can\'t take all the negativity regarding some opinions about her. I\'m not sure if people are just looking for heated conversations or if they really have no heart and are like machines pushing the button for the next bet. The only thing for sure is if you look at that mare and don\'t see once in a lifetime greatness, you know nothing whatsoever about racehorses. Reminds me of when a great horse broke down at Gulfstream (he was like 1-9 that day) and Cigar (I think) won - it was at the beginning of Cigar\'s long streak I think. There were actually people cheering when that other horse broke down because they bet on Cigar. That\'s the kind of person who would knock Zenyatta or wish her to lose. It\'s just so distasteful and low-class. . .

[Ill-bred]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> People love to hate on those that are successful.
> It somehow make them feel better about themselves.
>
>
> These aren\'t fans of the game, just gamblers. Sad
> really, that some around here can\'t embrace a
> phenomenal horse while trying to look for an edge
> in a race they want to play.

This is a handicapping board! There is nothing wrong with taking a stand against a heavily bet fan favorite. In fact, it is usually the right move.

This isn\'t the Peppermint Pony Club.

[jimbo66]

That \"other horse\" was Holy Bull. He didn\'t break down, he pulled up, but went on to have a nice breeding career.

And rooting for Zenyatta to lose is not like rooting for a horse to breakdown and lose its life.  Settle down.  I understand you are a fan, but this is actually a website with lots of gamblers on it.  It is not heretical to both root against tand bet against a favorite.  That doesn\'t make anybody a bad person...

[moosepalm]

Dana666 Wrote:
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 There were actually people cheering when
> that other horse broke down because they bet on
> Cigar. That\'s the kind of person who would knock
> Zenyatta or wish her to lose. It\'s just so
> distasteful and low-class. . .

OK, if I\'m the guy who\'s betting on Quality Road or Blame, next Saturday, and \"wish her to lose,\" that makes me what???  I think the answer is \"gambler.\"  And if I \"knock\" her, which I don\'t, because I have no interest in engaging in such dialogue, that might just mean I\'m a student of the racing game who is willing to make a stand based on a different analytical framework than your own.  Unless I missed a tongue-in-cheek cue, your analogy was incredibly offensive to a substantial portion of the horse playing population.

[Boscar Obarra]

Frankly, there\'s a certain venom attached to many of the \'bet against\' posts that has NOTHING to do with a \'gambling\' play.

 No reason to deny that, or excuse it.

[moosepalm]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> Frankly, there\'s a certain venom attached to many
> of the \'bet against\' posts that has NOTHING to do
> with a \'gambling\' play.
>
>  No reason to deny that, or excuse it.

True, but there was no attempt to make such a distinction, and would you say the venom is comparable to hoping the horse breaks down?  That was the analogy.

[Wrongly]

Jimbo

Well stated!

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
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> I hate on success of others and am no fan of the
> game because I exploit over-bet synthetic
> champions who routinely come up short on dirt?
> Ummm Okay..  Another gem P.


When has Zenyatta come up short in any race?
Um okay.

Now that\'s truly a gem.

Boscar is correct. It\'s one thing to take a stand against her, I\'ve never had a problem with that.

It\'s the constant put downs and negativity that has been a constant in the handicapping discussions.

Perhaps this Saturday you can win back all of the money you\'ve burned betting against her.

Lets see how many of you post before the race which horse is going to beat her. If she loses, every last one of you will claim that you nailed it.

[MonmouthGuy]

Amen.

I thought the purpose of this board was to use TG figs and patterns to help indentify bad favorites and live longshots.  

Next Saturday, in a 14 horse field, we will have a favorite that needs to run a lifetime top and get a perfect closing trip while 3 other faster horses that will be forwardly placed (and as such almost certainly get better trips) back up.  This favorite has a 10-15% chance to win and will be bet as if she has a 33-42% chance to win.  As a horseplayer, these are the type of opportunties for which you wait.

Believe me, if Zenyatta was 10-1, I would use her as her key, I have nothing against the horse per se.

One needs to separate emotions from analysis.  In 2007, many here did very well with Street Sense in the juvy and Kentucky Derby. Big scores.  I guess that should have made them \"fan(s)\" of the horse.  When it came to the Breeders Cup Classic, the ability to recognize that Street Sense was a terrible underlay at 6/5 with Curlin at 4-1 when you had them essentially w/ equal chances to win was the key to betting the race properly.

There are those that will bet Zenyatta next week at 7/5 with the same vim and vigor that they would if she was 7-1.

One is a good bet, the other a bad bet.  Not too hard to figure out.

[HP]

P-Dub - I\'ll be the first...Lookin\' at Lucky, and I\'m thinking 5-1, maybe higher?  I don\'t like QR.  Blame isn\'t bad but I have a more positive view of LAL.  That said, hey, if these three \"forwardly placed\" horses hurt each other enough Z. has a shot.  Right now I don\'t see it as a race I will be hitting that hard.  HP

[marcus]

LAL seems like he\'s handling those recent efforts imo and does have good spacing . To figure he\'s sitting on a point or two top right now is not a reach in my opinion . I guess current odds of 9-2 at oddschecker is my only real negative for the horse and with that said - I\'m still not sure what to do with the race as a stand alone  although personally speaking , FD\'s shaping up to be the one I\'d hate to get beat by the most   . ..

[Boscar Obarra]

No, I don\'t think anyone in their right mind would wish for a breakdown.

 Of course, if some of these guys are ready to load as they claim, some powerful Voodoo might need to be employed at the 1/8 pole.