Miday

[Silver Charm]

Very unusual for this type in Europe to not tackle Males. She has not done it this year and only once in her career. Hey she hasn\'t even gone favored once this year.

Received a perfect rail trip last year and beat a defending champ herself who didn\'t fire her best and certainly hasn\'t since.

Andre Fabre usually comes over with a ready horse. Arc non-effort is a toss and only helps the price. She has begun to learn how to win this year and they have always kept high quality company with her.

Americans look pretty dreadful. Harmonius has already developed a lot and needs more. Can\'t see it.

5th String Euro wins Yellow Ribbon.

Red Desire surely needed last. 3rd in Japan Cup last year has been absent a bit this year and showed up with fronts in last. Does anyone know who has this horse stabled and is overseeing day-to-day training. She is the mystery horse!

[Footlick]

Henry Cecil said he had no interest in running Midday against males.  So I guess that explains the lack of races against them.

[Silver Charm]

Interesting and he is a very smart guy. She probably will tough to beat and they seem to have been pointing her with the rest. Maybe this has been the goal all year with the conservative racing and spacing.

Doesnt look like there is going to be all that much rain this week just gonna be cold. Wonder how Zenyatta runs in the cold.......

Remember those old Rams Teams and the Tampa Bay Bucks. Just sayin.....

[Footlick]

Yes.  He said that he was always pointing her for a BC defense.  She ran in 3 races in 6.5 weeks, so the Arc was not in the picture as far as he was concerned.   She is in top form this year, but the fact that Sariska refused in two of her races helped.  And she caught a short Sarafina, who was given a terrible ride by Lemaire in the Vermeille.  But she may very well have won those races anyway.

Zenyatta probably will not mind cool weather, but as you said, you never know.

[jimbo66]

Assuming that Provise races in the Mile and not here, to me Midday is clearly the most likely winner of the two Breeder\'s Cup days.  Yes, she tripped out last year, but look at her figures in Europe this year compared to last year.  She is a much faster filly this year.  No reason to believe that the addition of lasix again won\'t make her even faster.  If so, good night.  She wins.  

Lots of bad favorites to bet against over the two days, but not this one for me.

[covelj70]

I am in total agreement with Jimbo here.

This is the favorite over the two days that has the least question marks to me, including Goldikova (simply because of how deep the turf mile is this year) and Zenaytta (for reasons that I have labored to death already).

Aside from this turf mile, I think Jimbo and I are either going to sink or swim together in this BC. Sorry Jimbo, I am dragging you down.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

I guess one thing we all have to think about before singling Midday is that Plumania only lost to Midday 3/4 of a length 2 back and who knows what effect Lasix will have there (maybe some, maybe none).  the Arc was a non-effort for her and although no Arc winner has ever won the BC, some of the Arc losers have (presumably for the very reason that the Arc was a non-effort for them).

She\'s 10-1 ML compared to 8-5 for Midday so maybe if I wind up singling Midday in the multi-race bets, I can use Plumania on top to protect in the race itself.  Maybe I can also just use both in the multi-race bets as they seem to tower above the others (especially assuming Harmonious bounces off the huge effort in the QEII).

[jimbo66]

Jcovelo,

I think you may have reversed the \"mush effect\".  As I understand, you at least have had some very nice scores this year (like taking down the big Super in the Derby).  The last two Breeders Cups have been very dry for yours truly, although I have high expectations with the return to dirt!

Best of luck,

Jim

[Silver Charm]

I dont think you will get 10-1 but Pulmonia will not be 8-5 either....and Miday will. Miday did handle her pretty good in the last race regardless of victory margin. However there are different racing tactics here and bit of trouble can make all the difference in the world.

The more I look the tougher the Mile gets. A good horse like Court Vision may have finally found his niche, which is this distance. I count 9 tries at a mile and 3/16ths or longer. And only ONE win. Two were on dirt (Derby and Travers) and one was on Synthetic (Big Cap).

Proviso and The Usual QT are 6-5 at home in their respective classes and 15-1 or more in here.

[jimbo66]

JCovelo,

Good point on Plumania.  Midday looks stronger to be sure, but Plumania is close enough such that trip + lasix could get her there.  

I will likely still single Midday on a majority of my tickets in the pick-4, because you have to take a stand somewhere and I don\'t see one in the other races in the Friday pick-4.

Blind Luck is a real tough call for me in the Ladie\'s Classic.  I used to think that she would be co-favored with Life at Ten, at a reasonable 5-2/3-1.  However, it seems I am way wrong on that.  Blind Luck is listed at 3-2 in major offshore outlets versus 4-1 for Life at Ten.  Blind Luck runs her race every time and it is tough to play her to not run well.  However, she will be an underlay if she is 6-5 or so.  Life at Ten, Havre de Grace and Unrivaled Belle are all as fast or close to as fast and horses I think may run very well.  (Malibu Prayer is as fast but I don\'t like her).  Might be one of those \"go 4 deep but hope the chalk bets beat\" races for me in the pick-4.

Jim

[jimbo66]

Proviso won\'t be 15-1.  She is live, working extremely well, and has won multiple consecutive graded races.  With a trip, she can win and she has to be on spread tickets in the multi-race bets IMHO.

[Silver Charm]

Maybe you are right but if Gio Ponte goes in here I think she gets lost in the crowd. There may be several bombs in here if Goldikova is 8-5.

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo below is an odds table in the Steve Crist DRF column. the first set of odds is the William Hill Book and the next set is the DRF. Note this does field does not include Gio Ponte who is now in.

MILE Beethoven 16-1 15-1
.
 MILE Court Vision 16-1 15-1
.
 MILE Delegator 16-1 15-1
.
 MILE Get Stormy 16-1 20-1

 MILE Goldikova 11-10 7-5
.
 MILE Paco Boy 9-2 9-2
.
 MILE Proviso 10-1 12-1
.
 MILE Sidney\'s Candy 10-1 12-1
.
 MILE Society\'s Chairman 16-1 20-1
.
 MILE The Usual Q. T. 20-1 15-1
.
  Second Preference      
.
 CLA Gio Ponti

[smalltimer]

The horses with the gonads hanging down are the ones who are gonna suffer.  LOL

[MonmouthGuy]

I also think Proviso has a big shot here.