Havre de Grace

[jimbo66]

Anybody have a read on this horse?  

Glass Half Full - Just about as fast as the favorite, has gotten into 3 photo finishes with Blind Luck, winning one of them.  An improving 3 year old who has NEVER gone backwards from her first race to now.  Ran well at the 1 1/4 in the Alabama, so don\'t believe the 1 1/8 will beat him.  Has a bit more tactical speed than Blind Luck, so may be able to get a better trip.  Gets a couple pounds from the older mares.  Figures 5-1 instead of 3-2 on Blind Luck.

Glass Half Empty - Has developed 9 points from his 2 year old top, which is a lot.  Has Jeremy Rose on her back, and that likely negates the tactical speed getting her a good trip.  Somehow gave her a 4w trip around the track in the Cotillion, in a 5 horse field.  Give me Borel here and i would take 7-2.

[Marlin]

Havre De Grace got 10 pounds from Blind Luck in that last race.  At even weights, that last race has a different winner.

[sekrah]

12 to 15-1 on Malibu Prayer is the value in this one I think.

[analizethis]

sekrah Wrote:
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> 12 to 15-1 on Malibu Prayer is the value in this
> one I think.
This is one (Quality Road is the other) of the Pletcher runners coming in off a long layoff (last race August 29), the other interesting opportunity in this race is Milwaukee Appeal with a forward moving pattern.
In reviewing he entries I was a little surprised to see that TAP only had those 2 coming into the races with 60 day+ layoffs. The other consideration is Dick Dutrow who brings in Acting Happy, Boys At Tosconova and Stradivinky off 60 days+. Court Vision who last raced 9/19 had been off a long time before winning the Woodbine Mile.

[jimbo66]

Marlin,

The 10 pounds was almost offset by the 4w/4w trip that Havre de Grace got.  That is why despite the 10 pounds the figures are not that far apart.

They were equal weights in the Alabama and IMO Blind Luck got the better trip and won by a neck.  

Blind Luck has been running all year long and there is at least some chance that she could finally feel the effects of the lomg campaign.  (shipped back and forth from California 4 times I think.)

Havre de Grace is an improving 3 year old filly who has gotten really good lately, and IMO may have more upside than Blind Luck (despite the fact that the TG line shows 9 points of improvement already, I think the fact she has never gone backwards offsets that to a degree).  

And as I said, one is 7-5, one will be 5-1.  To me, a no brainer on who to key, at those prices, although unfortunately in horizontal wagers, I have to include Blind Luck as well.