Hi Jimbo - I guess I don\'t see this as that much different than any other year/ We are going to have to handicap horses off of their Euro form and the way they will handle the relatively harder surfaces here is a bit of a mystery. Two year olds are coming over after running on soft turf every start. And firm turf in Europe is not the same as firm turf in the US.
I don\'t see anything particulary unique to CD. If anything I think CD is a bit more neutral for the Euros than Fla. or Southern Cali where they might be facing 80-90 degree weather. Obviously if they\'ve run in the US you may get a better read, but with plenty of the good ones you\'re weighing in new variables and a few wild card issues.
From past experience, I think the TG Euro numbers have held up very well. So I\'m going to look at the TG figs, I\'m going to try to translate the Euro explanations in the racing form into something my American brain can figure out (speed, stalk, close, etc.) and go from there. And if it\'s a tossup based on past experience I\'m going to give the Euro(s) a little extra credit. Basically another day at the track. I can\'t see myself sitting there saying...\"but the turf is going to be rock hard and I\'m throwing out this Euro because of it.\" They win all the time, at Woodbine, So Cal, Fla, Belmont, wherever they go. I\'m not buying into the \"Churchill difference\" now.
It sounds like a good idea to watch the races Weds/Thurs to get a clue but ask yourself how much water you could put down overnight. Answer is...who knows? I don\'t see the percentage in agonizing over something where I will not be able to determine the answer. If you find out please tell me! Otherwise we can watch the first few turf races Friday and that will be the best real guage of what is going on.
HP