Zenyatta 8-5 ML - Draws post 8

[jimbo66]

Here\'s to hoping that she goes off at that Morning Line.

Lookin at Lucky draws post 12, which his supporters on this board probably won\'t like, although Baffert probably really likes, as he believes the horse doesn\'t like it on the inside.

Quality Road draws the rail, which supporters on this board may like, but I am guessing Pletcher hates, because this horse also doesn\'t want to be down on the inside, and he unfortunately drew two speeds right outside him with Haynesfield in post 3 and First Dude in post 4.

I think the Classic is one of the few races where the post position really doesn\'t matter much, with that long run into the first turn, although I do think it puts Johnny V. in a bit of a tough decision whereas he likely will \"leave\" the gate hard, but then take back to allow Haynesfield and also likely First Dude and Espoir City to run by.  Not sure how QR will react to being taken a hold of.

[sekrah]

Wow... Plastic Champion 8/5.   Nuggets of gold out there in this race.

[Ill-bred]

Terrible draw for Quality Road imho.

[miff]

\"Terrible draw for Quality Road imho\"

ILL,


QR could not have drawn worse.If he does not break sharp,he\'s a goner,if he does he has Haynesfield race riding him.TAP and co acutely aware of race dynamics and must be vomiting over rail draw.


Mike

[Boscar Obarra]

dunno, I never could get too worked up about betting against an 8/5 shot who very well MIGHT win. Guess times have changed.

[MonmouthGuy]

every 8/5 shot in every race \"might\" win.

the question is do you quantify \"might\" as greater or lesser than 38.5%.

[Boscar Obarra]

Not exactly , there are plenty of 8/5 shots , certainly on a weekly basis, with poor win prospects. Don\'t think I\'d classify Z\'s chances as poor.

 And I was referencing the \'juicyness\'  of the opportunity, which after factoring in takeout, is hardly in order.  For those willing to throw Z out of the Tri and Super, you might have a case.

[MonmouthGuy]

I think the Seminar summed it up best. The key to the entire Breeders Cup is structuring a bet against Zenyatta, who in my opinion is the underlay for the ages...an 8-1 horse at even odds.

[P-Dub]

There have been much worse underlays in past BC races than Zenyatta.

Not saying she\'s isn\'t an underlay, but she does have a chance at winning. You\'re saying she\'s a bigger underlay than Officer??

That horse was 4/5 and a huge play against. Not even in the same ballpark.

[MonmouthGuy]

I am just agreeing with our esteemed host\'s opening comments to the Classic in the Seminar.

[sekrah]

Zenyatta\'s chances involve Quality Road, Blame, Haynesfield, Lookin At Lucky, and Fly Down all crashing into each other and wiping one another out.

At 9-5, I\'m with MonmouthGuy.   This is the greatest underlay in the history of the game (short of having inside information on a heavy favorite).

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Zenyatta\'s chances involve Quality Road, Blame,
> Haynesfield, Lookin At Lucky, and Fly Down all
> crashing into each other and wiping one another
> out.
>
> At 9-5, I\'m with MonmouthGuy.   This is the
> greatest underlay in the history of the game
> (short of having inside information on a heavy
> favorite).


Monmouth didn\'t say its the greatest underlay in the history of the game. He was just agreeing with JB that structuring a bet without Zenyatta is the way to go.  No argument there.

Your comment, that this is the greatest underlay in the history of the game, is just plain ridiculous.

A 4/5 shot (Officer) that ran up the track, that was also a major play against on TG, is less of an underlay than a horse going off at bigger odds?? Lost In The Fog (RIP), going off at 3/5? Your opening paragraph is just as bad.

Your extreme dislike for Zenyatta is clouding your ability to make coherent statements.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

While I of course don\'t agree with \"greatest underlay in the history of the game\", I do believe that without hindsight, Zenyatta is a bigger underlay than both Officer and Lost in the Fog.  Don\'t get me wrong, I bet against against both Officer and Lost in the Fog, but as a figure player, both had plenty of figures that would have \"won\" their respective Breeders Cup races, especially Lost in the Fog.  Zenyatta really doesn\'t have a single figure that puts her in the top 2 here.  

Her fans and backers are betting that the 6 year old mare has another gear she has never used and is the EXTREMELY RARE HORSE that only runs as fast as she needs to and thus will run her fastest race on Saturday.  

That pretty much screams \"underlay\" to any gambler.  (forget about liking or dislking her).  I have tremendous respect for her and don\'t like or dislike her, but she is slow in this race, by anybody\'s figures.  Not just TG.  All figures.

Slow horses that will go off at 8-5ish against fast fields are gambler\'s dreams.

[Boscar Obarra]

If Z went off at 3/5 she wouldn\'t be anything close to the greatest underlay this month, no less in history.

 And she aint going 3/5.

 Right now 2-1 on a small handle in Betfairs market. Is a solid choice vs the rest however.

[jimbo66]

Boscar,

If you really believe that, you are likely on the wrong board.  But good luck anyway.