Quality Road's Post Position

[jbelfior]

QR must be sent hard from the gate practically eliminating any chance for a moderate pace and Haynesfield. QR takes them as far as he can. A Donn like performance will be required.

Who benefits the most?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ajkreider]

I think he does.  The Whitney seemed to show that he can\'t beat other good horses with a slow half.  If he wins, it\'s because he\'s too far out in front to catch.

I\'m leaning against, though, given lukewarm works.

[miff]

Joe,

QR has 12 races, broke bad in 3 of them and assumably loads first and sits in the gate the longest.If your scenario is correct and QR tries to go quickly down the road, then LAL,Blame and Z benefit.

Not certain QR can outrun the gate quick Haynesfield early and QR\'s worse performance was when he was inside behind horses in last years Travers(wet track)


Mike

[Uncle Buck]

Velasquez doesn\'t have to send at all. I can easily see QR stalking First Dude & Haynesfield with a cozy spot inside saving ground. Plethcer and Johnny are smart enough to realize that\'s their best shot

[colin12]

I agree with Uncle Buck and if I liked QR before the post draw I would like him more now. I would say the opposite for Big Drama and Girolamo who are in a very bad spot E

[mjellish]

Trainer is on record saying this horse does not like being down on the inside.  This is public knowledge, and you can bet Asmussen/Dominguez - Romans/Albarado are aware of it too.  Watch his race replays and you will see that they have not let this horse run on the rail since the Travers last summer.  Watch how they run him in the Hal\'s Hope after he broke clear from the 2 post.  Then watch how they ran him in the Donn.  They clearly don\'t want him on the rail inside the other speed.  

The way I see it TAP/Johhny V have two choices: send QR clear and get him out and off the rail like in the Hal\'s Hope, or let the outside speed take off from the 3 and 4 hole and hope you can drop over behind them and assume an outside stalking position like in the Donn.  Johnny V is about as good out of the gate as you will see, QR is pretty headstrong (we can\'t even be sure he won\'t act up behind the gate) and this is the Breeder\'s Cup - he\'s not 2/5 to beat this field on talent alone.  So I would think sending him would be safer and play more to both the jock and the horse\'s natural strengths.  If you do it the other way and take back you have to worry about at least one of those other speed horses not taking off and race riding you all the way around along the rail, with the other speed horse out in front and perhaps on an uncontested lead.  In fact, if QR doesn\'t break well I would bet dollars to donuts that this type of trip is a very likely outcome.  

I\'m not going to pretend that I know what the race tactics/trip are actually going to be.  And I\'ve seen enough gate bobbles in my time to know that it\'s a risky proposition to handicap a race based on what you think the intent is going to be out of the gate.  But if I were a betting man, and I am, I would say the 1 hole would have been this stable\'s last choice.

The good news for QR fans is that the horse has shown that he can break from the inside and work out an outside stalking trip either by sending or dropping back and over.  But can he do it against this field?

I already didn\'t really like his sheet much and don\'t think 1 1/4 is his best distance anyway.  So this is just another knock against him IMO.  

Makes the race easier to play for me.

[sekrah]

Agreed Uncle Buck.   The dialogue here that this is doom for QR is baffling and illogical to say the least.   Nevermind that the rail absolutely dominated the Breeders Cup back in 2006 here at CD.

[alm]

I really appreciate your comments.  It seems to me, however, having watched (is it thousands?) of John V races that the jockey will indeed drop in behind whatever speed takes off and angle out as soon as he is able.  When he does this he will assume a pressing position off the one or two leaders.  He almost never rides the rail and this horse has been trained to be less keen for this race...or so it seems.

[miff]

Sek,

The rail itself may be fine this weekend. We are speaking of QR possibly being pinned inside or forced hard early.Guaranteed this horse will pull/grab if he\'s pinned down inside.He only works outside of horses in the AM and raced only once in his career down inside(his worst effort, not fig)

If you like him, no problem, if you disliked him,the post adds to your dislike given the way the early part looks on paper going in.Having said all that, he\'ll get a perfect trip and whistle!!
Good luck!

Mike

[jimbo66]

Alm,

Agree 100% with you, but maybe for different reasons.  Not so much because of watching Johnny V. race, but simply because the way this horse runs and what the trainer thinks of the horse.

1.  They have said many many times that Quality Road prefers a target.

2.  They probably have at least mild concerns about his ability to get 1 1/4.  Certainly not as much concern as many on this board, but at least some concern, as reflected by their change in recent training methods.  (longer, slower works, seemingly teaching him to rate kinder and relax.  Hard to believe they will \"send\")

[MonmouthGuy]

I am just afraid that slower and more moderate fractions mean a slower and more moderate QR.  His bigger stretch performances (Florida Derby, Donn) were off of fast fractions. Not sure if that is coincidence or not, but the race shape that would seem to suit him best would be if Haynesfield goes out in 46 and 1:10 and JV angles out and gives him his patented \"favorites\" ride in the 2 path.

[bellsbendboy]

Jimbo I cannot fathom them (team Tap) not sending.  Horses in general, and this colt in particular, almost always show speed after being on the shelf and QR\'s past performances verify this tenet.  

At Churchill, at ten furlongs, this post is beyond horrible.  This one figures to be off at double his morning line, or higher and while his best contends he will not be on any of my tickets.  bbb

[jimbo66]

Bellsbendboy,

Respect your view on his chances to win, as you are certainly allowed that. And I don\'t like the post.  However, he isn\'t going off at double his morning line.  You are smoking something very good, if you believe that.

[P-Dub]

Jimbo,

Zenyatta will probably be close to even money, that pushes up the odds on the others.

Blame and LAL are horses liked by many, while the knocks on QR have been documented. He will be over his ML and may well be pretty close to double at near 10/1, assuming the 2 mentioned get strong support too.  Blames\'s CD form will take money and Baffert is always popular with the crowd. We\'ll see in a few days.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

I will hope and pray that zenyatta is even money, but I really don\'t believe she will be near that.  I see 2-1 on her.

The shorter the price on her is, at least I have a chance to get SOME of the money back I have lost betting against her a dozen times or so..............