\"Betting her is about as illogical as it gets\".
\"The horse is too slow, plain and simple. A 25k claimer can look great in the paddock and in gallops. No matter how great she looks on dirt, the fact is she is way too slow.\"
\"Wow... Plastic Champion 8/5. Nuggets of gold out there in this race.\"
\"Zenyatta\'s chances involve Quality Road, Blame, Haynesfield, Lookin At Lucky, and Fly Down all crashing into each other and wiping one another out.\"
\"This is the greatest underlay in the history of the game\"
You get the picture. So, all of you that think she\'s a glorified claimer, too slow, biggest underlay ever, plastic champion.
Tell us where you will put your money. If she does lose, there will be 500 posts of people claiming they killed the race. If this is the wagering opportunity for the ages, then step up and prove it.
Speaking of Zenyatta, how is she \"way too slow\"?? Her best is a -1.5, she gets 3 pds worth around a half point, doesn\'t this put her at around a -2?? Her challengers?
-Quality Road has run 1 big number at this distance, over an off track. Its a leap of faith to think he fires his top number at this distance, with a legitimate pace, from that post.
-Blame is consistent, likes the track and has solid numbers. Has a BI 2 races back, followed by a 2 pt regression. Is that BI remark still affecting him. Top of -2.5, last race a -.75. Maybe he runs his top again, which puts him right there. But he doesn\'t have to and if he does, that number isn\'t that much better than Z\'s adjusted top.
-Haynesfield has a nice pattern, and if he sits off QR can rate and get first jump on the closers. For me, this horse is a great price play in here. Ran a half pt new top, as JB says may not be done developing. Can he run that number rating and not loose on the lead as in the last?? He has shown the ability to rate in the past. Top of -2.
-Fly Down exploded to a -4 two races back. A huge 4 pt new top, is he still feeling the effects?? If he is, then his secondary number of 0 is just ok.
-LAL has gotten really good. Last 3 races are -2.5, -1.75, -2. He has the number power to take this, and he will like the distance.
No doubt that several have a chance of winning this race, but looking at the numbers, I don\'t see how Zenyatta is that much slower when adjusting her number for weight. She is a bit slower than some, and for the horses that have big numbers it is very presumptuous to think those numbers will be repeated under these race dynamics.
If I am wrong in my analysis, I have no problem having somebody give a sensible counterpoint. I\'ll admit that on TG she is a bit slower and at the price playing against her is a prudent course of action. But to say she has no chance, and to just throw out one dismissive disrespectful comment after another serves no purpose.
So.......for all of you playing against her, make your pick here. Name a horse and tell me what would be acceptable odds. Best of luck to all of you this weekend. That includes my favorite sparring partners Monmouth Guy and Sekrah.
I\'ll be rooting for Zenyatta, but if I make a wager in this race HAynesfield at anything close to the ML would be my selection. JB summed him up in the seminar, has excuses for his bad ones. To me he is the clear value in the race.
