Classic Pick

[sekrah]

Quality Road - Push it and clear or fall back behind the pack.  Either way I can see why the rail isn\'t the most desirable post for this horse.   If the rail is anything like it was today (and I don\'t see why not), this one is in trouble.   Pletcher\'s horses aren\'t firing once again and I haven\'t been thrilled with some of the trainer-speak coming from him this week about QR.  All that negative stuff being said, i see it impossible to leave him off the exotics as the fastest horse in the race.

Paddy O\'Prado - Too slow.  Maybe next year.

Haynesfield - Good enough to win if everything goes right (i.e., let go on soft fractions), but seems a high probable candidate to bounce off his big Jockey Gold Cup win.   Odds allow a light back-end use in the exotics and maybe a saver win bet if the odds are right (20-1+)

First Dude - See Paddy O\'Prado.   Maybe next year.   Don\'t see anyway things can set up for him to win this.

Blame - Good pattern wise, if GoGo finds a nice comfortable spot behind the pace he\'ll be in position to strike.   Serious contender.

Fly Down - This is a special horse IMO and will be a horse of the year candidate for next year as he matures.   10 weeks off a monster effort that would probably win here.  He failed to switch leads down the stretch in that neg 4 and the effect of that effort seemed to be minimal.  The best of all the horses getting 4 pounds from the older colts.  Jockey switch to Julien Leparoux is a positive move.  A very serious contender

Musket Man - Questions past 1 1/8m but this is a very professional animal that brings his game to the track each time and has a couple numbers that are competitive here, he also has a style that has the potential to fit this race like a glove depending on how the pace shapes up.   He could very well end him in the 3-wide stalking position a couple lengths off the leaders, and be in the mix at the end.   Definently using, I think he\'s fresh and ready to fire another big number.

Zenyatta - Consistantly too slow for this field.   If the pace is right she\'ll grab the backend of a super or trifecta, but there\'s too many faster horses in here to expect her to win.   If you believe she has a good chance of winning this race than you simply do not subscribe to TG figure methodology.  There is no \"magic\" here.   She\'s a great mare who has the uncommon trait of consistancy, showing up and running her race each time and at the same time being fortunate to have lots of racing luck break her way over the past couple years to remain unbeaten.   Light backend exotic use only.  If she manages to win I\'ll begin to question synthetic figure making.

Pleasant Prince - Too slow and ripe for a bounce.

Etched - An very intriguing horse to me because of the potential price (Atleast 50-1).  Has a bunch of neg 1\'s and is lightly raced.   The horse ran 2\'s as a two-year old signalling a great future but you have to wonder about the soundness of the horse because they can\'t keep him on the track for longer than 3 months straight.  That along with the pattern is worrisome (as well as the lack of distance breeding) but I also think there\'s a potential for this horse to run a couple points faster than he has.  There\'s lots of question marks here but at 50-1, I don\'t mind throwing in a saver win bet on a horse that doesn\'t know how to lose (8-7-0-0 on American soil)

Espoir City - Too slow.

Looking At Lucky -  Preakness effort knocked him out til August.  Gritty, gutty horse but I don\'t see him moving forward off the last effort.   Tough to leave off your exotic ticket too though, but I think he\'ll be an underlay.



Tier 1 - #6 Fly Down, #7 Musket Man
Tier 2 - #1 Quality Road, #5 Blame
Tier 3 - #3 Haynesfield, #8 Zenyatta, #10 Etched, #12 Looking At Lucky


Fly Down is the best closer in the field, Musket Man is probably the 2nd best mid-pack/stalker next to Blame, but I like his pattern, post position, and higher odds just a little better and that moves him to my Tier 1 over Blame.


$120 Win Bet on #6, $80 Win Bet on #7 = $200
$20 Exacta 6,7 / 1,5,6,7 = $120
$20 Exacta 1,5 / 1,5,6,7 = $120
$4 Trifecta 6,7 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7,8,10,12 = $144
$2 Trifecta 1,5 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7,8,10,12 = $72

Savers

$40 Win Bet on #3, $20 Win Bet on #10 = $60
$6 Exacta 1,5,6,7 / 3,8,10,12 = $96
$1 Trifecta 1,5,6,7 / 3,8,10,12 / 1,3,5,6,7,8,10,12 = $96



I might post a few picks tomorrow in the other races, but the majority of my bankroll for the weekend is going into this one as I believe it\'s the best opportunity to make a big score.

[RICH]

Haynesfield won\'t bounce off that win, he has a nice line

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Zenyatta - Consistantly too slow for this field.  
> If the pace is right she\'ll grab the backend of a
> super or trifecta, but there\'s too many faster
> horses in here to expect her to win.   If you
> believe she has a good chance of winning this race
> than you simply do not subscribe to TG figure
> methodology.  There is no \"magic\" here.   She\'s a
> great mare who has the uncommon trait of
> consistancy, showing up and running her race each
> time and at the same time being fortunate to have
> lots of racing luck break her way over the past
> couple years to remain unbeaten.   Light backend
> exotic use only.  If she manages to win I\'ll begin
> to question synthetic figure making.

Part of the TG methodology is projecting what a horse will run TODAY.

If you take all of the numbers and cherry pick the fastest number, then yes she is slower.

You are making huge assumptions that all of these horses will indeed run their very best number. Littered amongst all of those faster numbers are numbers that are right in line with what Zenyatta runs every time.  In addition, she picks up about a half pt in weight so her effective top is around a -2.

Since his monster effort QR has run slower with each race, his last was a -2. He is breaking from the rail, which has been well documented as being bad. He also has to navigate 1 1/4 miles.

Haynesfield has run 1 number that can beat her and adjusted it is as fast as Zs best.

Blame\'s best is 1/2 pt better running the same trip. He\'s not that much faster.

Fly Down ran a huge top, no guarantee he runs it again and if he comes within 2 pts of it it puts them at roughly the same number.

Musket Man ran a -3 three races ago, a -2 two back and bounceed in last. If he runs back to the neg 2 its the same number as Z.

Lookin At Lucky has run a couple of -2 and change, slightly faster with aq wide trip every time.

These numbers are a guide. We are talking about a half point difference in many of these horses. Weight adjusted Zenyatta is in the ball park with many of these. To say she is too slow is applying a very rigid approach to handicapping. Her numbers are a bit slower, but certainly not insurmountable.

She\'s obviously a poor bet at the odds she will be, I said she would be even money and she looks to be less than that.

I will probably put a few on Haynesfield, big price with a trip that has worked out on this surface. A stalking 3 wide, I don\'t think he needs the lead.



Good luck.

[Michael D.]

I\'m going with Pleasant Prince, currently at 63-1. Was on the right track this spring before catching a series of surfaces that just didn\'t suit. Back on track now, gets some pace to run at, and is nicely bred to get the distance. Strong jock.

[Boscar Obarra]

Z, bad price, great performance.

  Made a mockery of the bashers even in defeat.