Smith in detail on the ride

[Boscar Obarra]

http://sportsradiointerviews.com/2010/11/09/jockey-mike-smith-continues-to-take-some-blame-for-zenyattas-loss/#more-27862


Sounds pretty accurate to me. I posted early on that Smith took quite a while to \'set her down\'.

 Whether that was by necessity or over cautiousness, is for you to decide. I\'m not going to second guess the man, he\'s the pro.  
 
 That the funny business did cost her the race is pretty much a given.

[jimbo66]

Boscar,

It is not a given.  Not at all.

Her dropping 18 lengths out of it was likely not because of the kickback or because of some \"funny business\".  She ran her standard first half mile.

I can\'t believe I am about to do a Class Handicapper and discuss pace figures, but I am.  The pace figure that Zenyatta got for the first half mile of Saturday\'s race was in line with her last 10 pace figures.  She ran her race early.  It looked like she was having trouble adjusting to the kickback or the surface, because she was so far back, but this was her standard pace figure.  What we saw was the difference between slow paced synthetic races versus quicker paced dirt races.    

She ran her race.  She got beat.  

Now, if you want to argue that her connections never racing on dirt against real competition thus never giving her a chance to adjust to dirt and adjust to needing to stay closer to the pace, cost her the race.  That could be a good argument.

Jim

[alm]

Thank God there is some sanity on this board...thanks for this post.

[Dana666]

Thanks for posting this. I found it really interesting.

[MonmouthGuy]

Agreed with everything Jimbo said.

Seven lengths behind a horse the quality of Musket Man on a fast dirt track after a 1/4 is not surprising considering she was 4(?) lengths behind Satan\'s Quick Chick at first call in the last on synth.

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Boscar,
>
> It is not a given.  Not at all.
>
> Her dropping 18 lengths out of it was likely not
> because of the kickback or because of some \"funny
> business\".  She ran her standard first half mile.
>
> I can\'t believe I am about to do a Class
> Handicapper and discuss pace figures, but I am.
> The pace figure that Zenyatta got for the first
> half mile of Saturday\'s race was in line with her
> last 10 pace figures.  She ran her race early.  It
> looked like she was having trouble adjusting to
> the kickback or the surface, because she was so
> far back, but this was her standard pace figure.
> What we saw was the difference between slow paced
> synthetic races versus quicker paced dirt races.  
>  
>
> She ran her race.  She got beat.  
>
> Now, if you want to argue that her connections
> never racing on dirt against real competition thus
> never giving her a chance to adjust to dirt and
> adjust to needing to stay closer to the pace, cost
> her the race.  That could be a good argument.
>
> Jim


I\'ll trust the opinions of a Hall Of Fame jockey over an amateur handicapper.

[MonmouthGuy]

Listening to jockeys and trainers talk about their horses is the quickest way to a losing day, especially ones that have such emotional attachments.  Look at the comments before and after the Kentucky Derby every year.  

I actually think an unbiased horse player can offer a better perspective because there actually is perspective.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

You make it impossible to be civil to you.  You can\'t be as thick as you portray yourself on the board.  Nobody is.

Figures are not an opinion.  I hope you get that.  I don\'t make the pace figures.  Moss does, so do other pace figure makers.  They aren\'t opinions.  They are mathematical calculations.  

The pace figure makers all agree that Zenyatta\'s opening half on Saturday was par for her synthetic figures.  I am the messenger.  I didn\'t do the calculations.

She ran her usual opening half.

[jimbo66]

Monmouth,

The board is littered with lots of people that have tried reasoning or sharing facts with P-Dub.

it doesn\'t work.

Agree with your comments on jockey speak.  And it is quite admirable of Smith to try and take the blame for the ride on Zenyatta.  But how credible are his statements about her being completely unable to handle the surface throughout the race and him having to pull her and push her, with the Zenyatta we all saw in the stretch.  She looked the same to me.  He wants to make her more legendary than she already is by telling a story of how she couldn\'t grab the surface and persevered on heart alone to almost win.  It will make for a nice Hollywood movie someday.  But that is a view for her fans, not supported by visuals or facts.  She ran her usual gallant and amazingly consistent race.  Just fell short.

[Boscar Obarra]

I realize that I am among giants, but consider this.

 Talk now of the opening half being \'par\'.

 That may actually be correct, but that wasn\'t where the race was lost.

 It was the opening 1/8.

 The only reason the half came up par, was Z had to be hard used to get back in the race.

 If the first 1/8 had been handled more gracefully, Smith would have had more horse left, and more options on how to ride the final 1/4.

 In general , a closer benefits from not expending energy early. In this case , those *extra* 5 lengths or so lost by bobbling around  were simply wasted, as if she\'d started 5 lengths behind the gate (I realize that would be actual extra ground, but I can\'t think of a better comparison at the moment.)

 Come to think of it, it\'s more like her simply standing in the gate for a second after it opens.  No benefit at all, just time lost.

 I now return control of the board to the pros.

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Monmouth,
>
> The board is littered with lots of people that
> have tried reasoning or sharing facts with P-Dub.
>
>
> it doesn\'t work.
>
> Agree with your comments on jockey speak.  And it
> is quite admirable of Smith to try and take the
> blame for the ride on Zenyatta.  But how credible
> are his statements about her being completely
> unable to handle the surface throughout the race
> and him having to pull her and push her, with the
> Zenyatta we all saw in the stretch.  She looked
> the same to me.  He wants to make her more
> legendary than she already is by telling a story
> of how she couldn\'t grab the surface and
> persevered on heart alone to almost win.  It will
> make for a nice Hollywood movie someday.  But that
> is a view for her fans, not supported by visuals
> or facts.  She ran her usual gallant and amazingly
> consistent race.  Just fell short.


This is the height of arrogance. The almighty Jimbo says something, so it is so.

You saw the race, you\'re telling me she looked comfortable over that surface??

[jimbo66]

I prefer \"Mr. Almighty Jimbo\".

They aren\'t my observations Paul.  Read Beyer\'s article in the Post.  Read Moss\'s article.  Read the postings on pacefigures.  

I wish I could take credit for their work, but I can\'t.  I am simply regurgitating their figures, which is not arrogance.  

She was charging hard in the stretch and looked good doing it.  The pace figures are on par with her standard, the beyer figure is on par with her previous best and my guess would be the TG figure is a lifetime best.  Hard to take that set of facts and conclude \"couldn\'t handle the surface\".

[TGJB]

I am on the Thoro-Graph board, right? Anybody want to wait and see her figure? If she ran a lifetime top, are people who use figures actually going to say she didn\'t get to run her best, didn\'t like the track, etc.?

By the way, I\'m not big on listening to jockeys on this kind of thing. Aside from the question of what their opinion is worth, what they SAY is not exactly free of outside influences.

[Boscar Obarra]

She may well get a decent figure. There must be a generous allowance for doing an Irish Jig early in the race ;-)

[P-Dub]

Ok Mr Almight Jimbo. LOL, good one.

I\'m going by what I saw, and is it possible she should have run a bit faster since it was dirt and not syn??

We\'ve beaten this enough.

I just got 2 hours of sun and a couple cocktails, and I\'m still arguing with you??