Smith in detail on the ride

[Rick B.]

Badride Wrote:
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> I doubt any are sharper than me.

Ah, well, then congratulations. I always wondered who was the sharpest guy around. I thought it might be TGJB, or TGAB, or one of the other TG guys, but they lack the chutzpah to come out here and declare themselves the sharpest around. Probably a lack of confidence thing,

(And we all know that the sharpest handicappers in the world have nothing better to do than hang out on an Internet forum at 3 in the morning.)

> If you don\'t think she\'s the best horse I\'m glad you\'re in the paramutual pools
> against me.

Well, \"Sharpie\", I think you mean \"parimutuel\" pools, but that\'s OK -- who has time to learn how to spell when they are the smartest horseplayer around?

What I want to know is -- since you and I are doing battle, parimutuelly speaking -- and since your opinion was that Zenyatta was the best horse in the race...did you bet her to run 2nd in the exacta, tri, and super, like I did last Saturday?

[Badride]

Glad I have you here to spell check for me.  I think the smartphone spelled that out for me after I typed p-a-r and I just never proofreader it.

Listen we have our first set of monsters undertack so I\'ll chime
back in around 11 before I go back to the track.  

I didn\'t bet zenyatta\'s race.   I knew she was the best horse and wasn\'t willing to take a short number w/ all the variables.   The surface switch, the lights, etc.

[MonmouthGuy]

What if they were equal weights?  Do you think she still would have run fast enough to \"win\"?  Or would Blame have won by 3?

[MonmouthGuy]

Too bad you left all that money on the table.

Did you similarly miss the Ladies Classic because you were afraid of the lights, sharpie?

[alm]

This is absolutely the point...it would be nice if the commentary was oriented to the core value of this board...I wonder if some of these bloggers even used the TG figures?  Had they, an uneducated reading of them would have told you IN ADVANCE that Zenyatta was \'in the mix\' with several other horses, based upon their recent efforts.  Horses that were at a higher level further back in time did not run back to their best efforts.  She likely ran to her best effort.  Horses at the level of her recent figures (including Blame) ran as well as she did.

The dilemma for handicapping this race was the judgment one had to make as to what value to assign to recency.  For example, would Quality Road run back to his better figures, from some time back?  I looked at him a little differently....this was just a judgment, but he seemed to me to offer a variation on the 0-2-X factor.  I called him an X and he seemed to perform that way, possibly further influenced by the problem on the rail and being inside.

To my eye, the horse who turned around and is reapproaching his best form is Fly Down.  I wish I understood why his form is so \'in and out\' because that would help make a better guess on what he does next...if there is a next.  

Bottom line to me: the Classic was one of the most formful races of the 2 days and Zenyatta got beat by a horse who figured to beat her.

[Footlick]

I doubt Blame would ever beat Zenyatta by three.  I posted her internal fractions earlier.  She went from a 23.80 to a 24.40 when QR backed into her and she had to wait for LAL to clear.  She then rebroke with a 24 flat final.  She wasn\'t slowing down in the last furlong.  Three pounds wouldn\'t have made the difference.  Trips make the difference.  She got a trip she couldn\'t overcome.  She lost momentum at a crucial point.  There are the risks with her running style.  I like looking at figures and listening to the analysis and listening to the guys who post who use them consistently.  But I don\'t ever compare a dirt figure with a synthetic or turf because there seems to be a disparity whether anybody admits it or not.  Zenyatta was a horse who, in one European handicappers words, \"is a speed figure bettors nightmare\".  I just think there are horses who can transcend figures and are better than the figures they posted.  People say QR can\'t handle the slop.  But didn\'t he run a neg 3 or something like that in the slop?  And TG has Summer Bird running a neg 4.  I could never rate him that fast personally.  QR has been the darling of the figure makers.  And all of that is fine.  I\'m here to understand why that is so and why synthetic and turf numbers are lower than dirt numbers.  This is not a knock on figures.  I\'m just mystified why when somebody says she was the best horse, and the internal fractions seem to support that, that person gets attacked. Sorry about going on and on

[miff]

Gallant of Smith to take the fall for Z, he rode perfect, her style finally got her but no other horse in there could come close to losing a head from that far back.Her best performance ever and probably her best fig.

Sheriffs may have underestimated or did not know the early gas and the long run to the first turn. I knew she would probably be 15-20 out after a quarter(did Sheriffs?)Maybe he got caught in the total over hyping by the not so sharp talking heads on TVG/HRTV/West Coast press. Might have worked her at CD and gave her a little zip given what she was facing early.Zero blame for Smith, Sheriffs,maybe.

Blame never had anything but a perfect trip(sandwiched for one stride deep stretch) and was NOT on the rail at any time(2+ path most of the way, near the fence approaching the quarter pole). Z had one little momentum changer top stretch, not splitting hairs, mayyyyybe she wins without it.

In the end, the naysayers were totally wrong,the glorifiers less wrong.Somewhere in the middle of this Z debate, unbiased,she was arguably the greatest/most consistent MARE of all time but not with DR.Fager,Secretariat and a few others that demolished their opponents and ran holes in the wind,something Z never did.

Mike

[jimbo66]

Footlick,

I read your point about the internal fractions, but I am not sure I share the conclusion.  I have watched the replay a lot and I see a very very minor loss of momentum when QR stopped.  But this is part of the game when you drop back to last and then circle the field in every one of your races.  Happens at every track every day in just about every race, a deep closer having to navigate traffic.  We don\'t re-adjust internal splits and declare them the best horse because they had to negotiate traffic.  This is the \"tradeoff\" in strategy when you have a horse that won\'t fight on the lead/expend energy early in the race and therefore is susceptible to pace duels.  No pace duels = sometimes traffic.  

She got quite a few clean trips and great rides by Mike Smith, including last year\'s BC Classic.  This time the red sea didn\'t part and she got beat by a very good horse. Great mare, maybe best ever, but probably not all-time great horse.  Probably most beloved horse in the last 30 years, at least from what we can see but not measure.

[TGJB]

Foot-- the short answer is we don\'t make adjustments for energy distribution. Also, the second to last quarter is around a turn, which slows horses down by about a second.

[Footlick]

Thanks for the response.  I agree that this is the risk a deep closer takes.  And thanks for clearing up about the trip.  It makes me understand figures a little better because I always wondered about that and why the figure wasn\'t faster.  

Thanks again

[Footlick]

Thanks Mr Brown.  I knew it was around the turn.  And I knew horses lose momentum around the turn, just didn\'t realize that about 1 second was the standard.  Thanks again.

[alm]

If you are going to account for every difficult aspect of Zenyatta\'s trip to make a case that she was the best horse, you need to account for every aspect of each horse\'s trip to balance out what you\'ve determined.  Which is a total waste of time, given it doesn\'t inform anything but the emotional investment you have made.  I am sure Sam Riddle would have loved to have had a better trip against Upset, but he was a big man who wore grownup britches and simply went on with his life.

Long live Personal Ensign, the East Coast Zenyatta.

[martoon]

That\'s why you can\'t throw Zenyatta out of the exacta.  She is a testament to sticking with a consistent running style her whole career.  One thing for sure about this race was you knew she was going to start last and be coming at the end win or lose.   That\'s very hard to predict with other horses who keep getting their styles changed up from front running, pressing, stalking etc...

[Footlick]

I understand and wasn\'t complaining.  I\'m not getting into a debate about how good she was.  Just a question

[Footlick]

Thanks.  I didn\'t understand some not using her in exotics.