Dead rail horses

[TGJB]

First of the dead rail horses from BC weekend (at least the first I noticed) just won the 8th at CD at $17.60.

[mikemca]

lol i just posted the same thing.I was waiting for one to run back

[plasticman]

The only winner i\'ve had so far today.

[JimP]

That was the second one to run back. The first was yesterday in the 8th at MNR. Also won. Paid $5.00.

[bstaubs22]

So the dead rail was on both days or just on Saturday? I saw where Wise Dan has been entered at CD on Thanksgiving Day!!

[Rick B.]

bstaubs22 Wrote:
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> So the dead rail was on both days or just on
> Saturday? I saw where Wise Dan has been entered at
> CD on Thanksgiving Day!!

Just to clarify, Wise Dan wasn\'t tagged with an \"X\", the dead rail symbol, for his BC performance. He paired.

[bstaubs22]

so should we figure that he will not move up as much on Thurs?

[bstaubs22]

I\'m confused now because watching the replay, HE is down on the inside when they turn for home and seems like he could have gone on but he almost looks like hes stuck in quick stand.

[Rick B.]

I am (finally) entering all of the dead rail horses into my DRF StableMail.

When you get to Hurricane Ike, watch it: the DRF search engine returns TWO horses with the same name.

Yes, that happens at times, as names seem to get reused after some years pass; what makes my find on Hurricane Ike stick out is that the two Ike\'s in this case were foaled only one year apart.

The 2007 foal out of Graeme Hall is the one that ran in this years BC...well, that\'s what it said in the the DRF; I didn\'t check any lip tattoos or anything.

Beware!

[miff]

Bstaubs,

Most of the way WD was off the rail,hence no X.WD in Thursday against slower than the BC field he faced and although he paired his fig, he only did a little running,may be favorite.


Mike

[Rick B.]

bstaubs22 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m confused now because watching the replay, HE
> is down on the inside when they turn for home and
> seems like he could have gone on but he almost
> looks like hes stuck in quick stand.

I\'m going to defer to the TG experts on this one. Unless I am blind, Wise Dan doesn\'t have an X next to his BC Day figure.

[bstaubs22]

So when a horse pairs like Wise Dan and will be the likely favorite on Thursday, should we think he is a vulnerable favorite and may regress off his fig or could he be ready for a new top?

[miff]

Bstaubs,

Tough to say, he last pp line looks ugly but he ran with much better and paired. Depends on odds,race dynamics.If you ask different sheet players about whether he\'ll regress or go forward, you\'ll surely get different answers.

As JB will tell you, after you get comfortable with the sheets, you will make your own interpretations.


Mike

[RICH]

Rick

Girolamo runs in the cigar mile on Sat off the X, I didn\'t like him in the BC, what do you all think on Sat?

[TGJB]

Yep. I would also point out that it\'s not a great idea to blindly bet any group of horses, coming off a dead rail or not. There\'s an edge because the public will be downgrading the horse off a bad race when we know there is an excuse, but the horse still has to be good enough if it runs its race.

Having said that, there have been dead rails not just those two days, but on the days leading up to them, and some at other tracks as well, and several of the horses that ran over them figure to start running back this weekend. People using our data will have a big edge over those who use Ragozin, Beyer or anything else, unless they keep track of dead rails themselves.

In fact, I think I may do the ROTW about a race that has one in it...