ROTW

[jbelfior]

Something to look forward to as many of us give thanks at the table with in-laws who we would  rather not be with.

Nice analysis and agree with RC. Will use bombs away Dubious Miss, Giant Oak, and Stately Victor underneath.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[alm]

If I go vertical I can\'t leave Successful off the ticket...maybe he falls apart, as suggested, but the trainer can\'t be ignored.  Also think Win Willy needs to be part of a saver here.  Trainer again.

[SoCalMan2]

Agree, thank you for this ROTW....looks really chewy...largely agree with analysis....may be slightly inclined to give Win Willy a little more credence (third off the layoff, a pattern he has stepped forward off of at Oaklawn)...whatever the result.....great race for handicapping purposes!  Good luck to all!

[jbelfior]

A couple of \"magical\" trainers in here add to the intrigue.

Race was much stronger last year.  TG Analysis makes sense, however I would not dismiss the rail horse who ran  OK from the 13 hole in this race last year. Second off the layoff after showing speed on the poly in last. Interesting vertical play  at the weight and with the inside post.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Badride]

I think Stately Victor is a viable win candidate if the track is off.

[SoCalMan2]

Badride Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think Stately Victor is a viable win candidate
> if the track is off.


While it is not black or white, I think it is hard to read Stately Victor\'s Derby figure in the slop and it could be an off effort.  To me, the horse that really moves up in the slop is Dubious Miss.  Although the horse is worth using in any case, if the track is sloppy, that horse definitely needs to be used more than just a cover.

[phil23]

Fubar.  5 would have got there but for the demolition derby.

[alm]

A perfect exclamation point to the last three days of mucked up trips my bets have had.  At least it\'s been consistent.

[kensharkey]

and these people tell me what a great rider this le-parouix is. he is as bad as the rest.

[jimbo66]

Phil23,

I had the 5 also, but believe the race was lost by the jockey or trainer\'s decision to take way back.  The horse runs well on the lead and there was limited speed in this race.  When I saw the 5 at least 4 or 5 lengths off the lead at the quarter pole, I assumed they were flying. 24 and change means the way over-rated Rosie Napravnik was asleep at the wheel.  I don\'t think the 5 gets there without the bumps but I guess we never know.

What I think was obvious was that Successful Dan was tons the best.  Not sure I have ever seen a horse that rank, that strangled for that long of a period of time, still have plenty left in the stretch.  Tons the best.

Kensharkey,

Just wondering exactly what you would have had Leparoux do.  The speed horses (#5) didn\'t leave early, the pace was very slow for Grade 1 horses, and he was pinned down inside with a very rank horse.  When daylight finally opened up in the stretch, he bulled his way out.  Got DQ\'ed and it was deserved, but not sure he had another move to make.  Just a very strangely run race.

[jbelfior]

Here\'s my next bet.....I bet Desormeaux is back on the sauce.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[kensharkey]

then he will be tied with le-paroiux

[alm]

I think you\'re being too harsh on Julien...that horse was swerving from the start of the race...he appeared to make contact with the 5 not too far out of the gate...became rank in company and to J\'s credit the rider went for a small seam at the only time he could make the move...had there not been contact, we would all be singing his praises for being so brave as to shoot that gap.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- completely agree about taking RC back, I said the same thing to Alan before they hit the first turn, and had the same reaction to the quarter fraction.

[jimbo66]

Joe B.,

I like Desormeaux, but you may be right.  I wouldn\'t book your bet.

If you get a chance, watch the replay of the 8th racea at Churchill today.  Desormeaux was on the 3, B Pops.  Just strange strange ride.  Not a specific \"bad decision\", which can be understood (staying on the rail, getting stuck, or tipping too wide on the far turn).  He took this horse wider and wider right out of the gate then drifted him wider still on the backstretch, then took the 6 path on the far turn (when paths 3 through 5 were available).