I dunno. I have no problem betting chunk of change to win at 5/2 or 3/1 if I think the horse is 8/5 or 2/1 to win.
Seems to me the key is to alway look for value. I don\'t think you can bet into underlays and beat the game, and I don\'t think you can bet 20-1 horses that should be 10-1 and beat the game either.
Most of the people I know that do well don\'t do it by grinding it out, and they certainly don\'t bet place or show. They keep making smart bets and show a slight overall profit, or maybe even a slight overall loss on their daily plays. But they are also betting and paying attention so that they can make a big score from time to time when they are dead right. So it\'s more like a string of win a little, lose a little, have pretty good day, have a worse day than average, just miss, just miss, just miss, just miss and then WHAM - the big score. The profits seem to come in windfalls.
That to me is how you beat the game.
Plus, when you play it that way you\'re not as apt to be upset when you just miss because you know that $100 or $500 or $1k or $3k or $10k or whatever it is that you lost on the race is more of a long term investment. You\'ll get it back eventually and then some if you keep making smart daily plays and have the moxy to recognize a good opportunity when you see it and pounce on it. The key is to manage your bankroll accordingly, not go broke before you get there, and not go on tilt along the way. This is partly why as a recreational player now I generally tend to focus on the bigger racing days where the pools are large enough to make a big score. I could be wrong about the kentucky derby 20 years in a row, bet $10k each time and still show a profit if I am betting with conviction so that I will win $500k when I finally do hit. But I\'ve got to have the $200k to sustain the string until I get there. And I can\'t get to upset when I lose a fair amount along the way, even when suffering through a bad beat. IMP If you look at racing that way you have a much better chance of enjoying it and actually winning some money.
For example, I bet against Zenyatta 3x over her career when it seemed to me that there was a good reason to do so. I never once bet with her. The first two I obviously lost, but I would still go back and make those same plays if I had it do over again. But the last one, on BC day this year, I made almost $90k because I loved Blame in the classic, I thought he was an overlay based on Zenyatta being an underlay. So I singled Blame and Goldikova in a $10 Pick 4 along with ALL/ALL in the second and third legs. I also punched out 2 Pick 4 tickets that had Goldikova losing without going as deep as ALL in both the second and third legs together on the same ticket, but I still had Blame as a single in the classic because that was my main play - against Z and with an overlayed Blame. When Goldikova won and some decent price horses came through in the next two races, I saw the will pay on the Pick 4 was going to be about $7,800 on Blame and I was alive for 10x that if he got there. So I had a decision to make. I could have hedged and played against Blame with a few of the others to try to net myself $40k no matter who won the classic, which is what a lot of people would have done. But I didn\'t have a ton of money tied up in the race anyway, and Z was such an underlay that I just couldn\'t bring myself to cover her. No sense in covering any if your not going to cover all in a hedge (very quick way to lose even more $), so I just decided to go all in on Blame and key him on top in the Tri over a few others for 2nd and 3rd. That tri bet came in as well, so presto - a $90k score because I happened to be dead right. And I could care less about the money I lost betting against Z the 2x before, or the money I lost when my overlayed 6-1 shot lost a photo at the Spa, or my should win easy 5/2 shot never ran a lick back in August.
Make sense?
