Dialed In

[Dana666]

Well, if you saw his maiden win, yeah, you\'re were blown away, but how about today in the Holy Bull stakes? This is one serious racehorse, folks. There aren\'t words to describe his race today. How much better can he get??? Check it out, but don\'t blink because this horse has an explosive turn of foot, unbelievable for a dirt horse.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4Fb7z3dOY0

[shanahan]

yes, he\'s a serious player...just ck the analysis on red board.

[miff]

Beyer of 96 is ok+ for January.

[ajkreider]

Track seemed very fast on Sunday, which may be why the Beyer appears low for a 1:35.19 mile (even at 1 turn).  But, I think it makes his coming from the clouds that much more impressive.

[big18741]

Horse from the Fairgrounds 5th yesterday looks really freaky-showed his ability in the maiden breaker sprinting.Yesterday was a schooling race two turns in traffic behind a slow pace.Think he\'s also better bred on the bottom for distance than Dialed In.

Machen-Howard-Theriot

[miff]

Dialed In won\'t even get the best fig,since Sweet Ducky was wider and gave 4 him lbs.Derby news heats up when a Zito horse is involved.

[ajkreider]

Agreed.  Great race by the runner-up.

Hard not to be impressed by the winner, though.  While the leaders were running the middle half in 46.37(around the turn), Dialed in made up six lengths.  Then, he carried that speed to the wire, making up another 7 while the race finished up in a decent 24.86.  

As good as one could want for this time of year.

[Halo Fire]

Big,
The Neil Howard horse can clearly run. But to say that he\'s \"better bred on the bottom for distance than Dialed In\" is an overstatement. First, the Howard horse\'s dam is Ready\'s Gal and yes,she was a real nice distance horse - on the grass.

Dialed In\'s FEMALE side has names like: Miss Doolittle,Eliza,Daring Bidder,Terlingua,Crimson Saint,Storm Cat,& Mt. Livermore (not even mentioning Mineshaft,AP Indy,Seattle Slew,Mr. Prospector,Secretariat on the sire side).

As well as producing Eliza, Daring Bidder produced Dinard. Remember him? Ran third to Easy Goer & Sunday Silence in that BC Classic. Also won the SA Derby as a sophomore.

Dialed In is super blue-blood.

[ajkreider]

Would feel better about the horse if the race had gone faster.  Was the slowest of three at that distance - including half a second slower than a later race for 3-year-olds with a similar race shape.

[big18741]

ajk


4th 24.81 48.61 113.89 139.01 143.02

5th 25.58 50.68 115.61 140.63 144.60

7th 24.12 48.88 114.49 139.95 144.09


Machen\'s race the fifth was really slow early and he was strangled for much of the trip down inside behind horses.Impossible for him to run much faster given that setup.

The other two winners had different trips out in the clear.Can\'t compare his race to either of those.On paper his race is gonna look bad-ground saving and slow.

His maiden breaker was really fast so this\'ll be a big time bounce on figures.Hard to say how much was regression though given the setup.

[alm]

I always hesitate to comment on the visual aspect of a race, because looks can be deceiving.  Regarding this horse\'s effort, however, it seemed clear to me the animal had NO idea what he was doing. He was out playing.  He will be very dangerous if and when he figures out what this running around with his pals is all about.

[Silver Charm]

I think what we have seen already is some pretty damn good 3YO running at GP in the first month.

Sodat 102 Beyer
Dialed In 96 Beyer
Washington Rules unknow but I guess about 90 in a Maiden Race.

The 2YO crop last year had about 2 good horses. It appears the \"Good Ones\" were waiting.

[covelj70]

Halo,

Machen\'s 2nd dam sire, Nasty and Bold, ran one of the fastest 1.5 mile races in the history of the sport.

Dialed in is definitely well bred but I think most pedigree experts (which I am definitely not so I could be wrong) would give the edge to Machen in terms of distance pedigree.

Another thing to note on Dialed in is that if you look at his sheet, most of the siblings ran better sprinting than routing.  That may mean something or it may not but it\'s worth thinking about at the very least.

For my money, I like Machen alot better than Dialed in both because Machen already ran a figure that would be competitive in the Derby (albeit at one turn) and because I think his pedigree is better suited for 1.25 miles and finally because he has already been two turns.

There\'s a chance that Dialed in could go into the Derby with only 1 two turn race under his belt and that\'s not enough foundation for me to back the horse.

All of this said, I am definitely talking my own book here because I put a decent sized Derby futures wager on Machen at 100-1 on Saturday night before his race on Sunday.  That could definitely be clouding my vision on the subject.

At any rate, really fun stuff to discuss. I love this time of year.

[big18741]

Pretty sure Eliza hasn\'t produced anything that could go long.Her daughter Miss Doolitle was a sprinter and I don\'t think she has routers among her offspring.

Dialed In might just be a very strong one run closing sprinter/miler.Interested to see how he fares stretching out at 9f\'s and two turns.

Machen was left out of the gate in both his starts just like Dialed In.The difference between the two in my view was Machen\'s turn of foot in the sprint race.He kinda just cruised up there picking up horses into the turn.Fast race-very fast horse if you haven\'t seen the replay from his Jan 02 race at the Fairgrounds.Nice ticket at 100-1.

Think he\'s now selling at around half that or less.

[ajkreider]

It won\'t hurt his rep that the horse he beat in that maiden sprint - Sour - looked pretty good winning around two turns yesterday as well.

I think I saw that Machen dropped to 50-1.  Nice pickup.