Machen

[drshillito]

Was curious if anybody had an opinion on this guy (Machen).  When I pulled the sheets for the Risen Star, I was shocked to see what kind of number he ran in his debut.  I watched the race and while visually impressive, I did not think that he ran THAT fast.  

Obviously, in his next start he regressed, going two turns in a paceless race facing tomato cans, he won easily, but according to the numbers he ran a race that would not compete for a victory in this Risen Star.

I guess my question is what do you with him in this spot?  Do you give the colt the benefit of the doubt for the slower figure because of the slow early pace and the easy win.  Or is that a legitimate bounce?  Did the debut effort knock him out?  

I\'m still a novice.  Educate me.

[limewithsoco]

The horse ran a bounced effort.  Fractions and everything you see in the race is included with the bounced figure that you see.  When I see this happen I tend to project a horse to run an in between effort at best (somewhere between the bounce and fastest figure) until the horse shows me improvement from his best effort I will not play the horse.  There is nothing to indicate that this horse will run a new top especially with the best number being pretty fast.  Even if you assumed an O-X-O-X type pattern at best its just not normal with these young horses running that fast so early on. So that projection wouldnt make too much sense to me.  Not saying to keep him off tickets because you may have the odds for some kind of play but I don\'t see anything personally to indicate that the horse will run a winning effort against this specific field.

[ajkreider]

His last was discussed at length in the \"Dialed In\" thread.  Definately a slow race, but I don\'t think you can call it a bounce if you watch it.  Was strangled so badly on the first turn that the rider was nearly unseated.  Blew away opponents when asked and won easily.  A time when the figs deceive.  The worry with this horse is green-ness, not ability.

This looks like the horse to play, value-wise.

[miff]

\"Or is that a legitimate bounce?\"


...as in regression solely from the stress of the previous effort?, doubtful. Machen green going two turns first time,much longer distance, slow pace, wrangled etc. First sprint fig is fast but also ground loaded on a track that was more favorable to stalkers/closers.


Mike

[dannyboy135]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Or is that a legitimate bounce?\"
>
>
> ...as in regression solely from the stress of the
> previous effort?, doubtful. Machen green going two
> turns first time,much longer distance, slow pace,
> wrangled etc. First sprint fig is fast but also
> ground loaded on a track that was more favorable
> to stalkers/closers.
>
>
> Mike
Mike and board members,
     I am no doubt a novice when it comes to reading patterns, but it sure seems to me that Machem\'s 8 point regression from his first out doesn\'t bode well for his chances on Saturday.  While I realize that it was his first time going two turns, the pace was slow and he was a bit rank it sure seems that the reaction is quite significant.  I don\'t recall ever seeing a horse run a negative number in his first out and ever approaching that level again.  I don\'t know if McPeek has Rogue Romance fully cranked but I certainly prefer his line.
     Mission Impazible looks unbeatable in the 8th.  
Thoughts appreciated

[limewithsoco]

The big bounce most likely represents the horse running way too fast for his own good first out.   How can this last figure be a good sign?  The play doesn\'t make sense to me unless the odds are there to take a stab.

[ajkreider]

It\'s clear that his number came back slow, but his performance didn\'t look like a bounce.  He won by six, going away, after getting stopped on the first turn.  Should he have won by 15 or something?  

Gotta get value of course, but I would think the average fan would look at the 78 beyer (or whatever it is) and toss him.  The DRF article doesn\'t help, but would be surprised if he goes off at lower than 10-1.  There\'s value there.

[big18741]

Not running out to bet it but Machen should be fine here if he doesn\'t get left in the gate again.Not the greatest bunch of three year olds.Maybe something in the 4 range could get the money?

Not expecting much from the two layoff horses maybe pass some wide in the stretch for a check or placing so I\'m left with Machen,Mucho Macho or Decisive Moment.The latter could improve a couple points and save all the ground but not for my money at his 9-2 ML.Closer to double digits might get me on him.MMM just ran hard three weeks ago now ships with an equipment change.Think he had a better chance of firing if they waited a couple more weeks but they\'re out chasing graded dollars.

Machen won\'t be a great price-kind of a buzz horse.I\'m guessing in the 4-1 range maybe even a tick or two less.Who they gonna bet other than Rogue Romance or MMM?

[Ill-bred]

Agreed, I\'m expecting around 4-to-1 on Machen.

[P-Dub]

Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Agreed, I\'m expecting around 4-to-1 on Machen.


If that, which makes me wonder how anybody would play him.

[limewithsoco]

My selection for the race is the grinder Santiva even at high weight. Worktab looks good to me with the 6 to 1 ML odds and I have no confidence in any of the others. GL

[big18741]

They pounded that horse.

Took a flyer on Decisive Moment at 14-1 for some improvement.

[Lost Cause]

Jumping on PAnts on fire @ 23/1..He might stalk #3, get by and then have enough to hold on..Odds make it worth a shot along with the breeding.  The others are bet too hard for my taste..

[ajkreider]

You ain\'t kiddin\'.  2-1??  

Everyone\'s wise guy horse, apparently.  At least, the line moved to low to bet - small blessings.

[P-Dub]

He wasn\'t a bet at anything close to his ML or below. Don\'t know why so many people get excited playing horses at those kind of odds. You have to be right too often, unless you are the very best handicapper.  Most aren\'t.