Terrific result today for those of us who like Honor and Serve in the Derby

[covelj70]

Hopefully, he will have alot of doubters after today\'s race and his odds will creep up in Vegas and or in the next Futures pool.

Mott said over and over he wasn\'t cranked for today and he won\'t be for the next one either in my opinion.  He was also carrying a bunch of extra weight and went wide all the way around today.

Just like Super Saver last year or Street Sense in his year, the trainer wants to get his horse to run the big race on the first Saturday in May and not before.

As far as I am concerned, this is the one that fits the profile of the Derby winner the best right now.

No issue at all with the distance and ran fast enough as a two year old that he can work his way back to those numbers in his prep races and then run the new top in the Derby and not before.

Obviously alot can change between now and then but I for one was really happy about today\'s outcome.

[Footlick]

I agree.  He ran the race I expected for a horse looking to peak at the Derby.  Thought Soldat ran a smart race too.

[Rick B.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hopefully, he will have alot of doubters after
> today\'s race and his odds will creep up in Vegas
> and or in the next Futures pool.

Not likely. He was 7-1 at Wynn when I was there last week. (I locked up Soldat, JP\'s Gusto, and Comma To The Top at 40-1, 40-1, and 50-1 respectively, plus a small bet on Rustler Hustler at 125-1.)

You\'ll probably get 7-1, and maybe more if TH & S starts in the Derby.

[jimbo66]

Sorry, but I will take the other side.  I thought he packed it in a bit way too early for a horse of his quality, who sat a good trip.  

Also have to disagree with the Super Saver and Street Sense comparisons.  Street Sense ran a very strong race 1st time out to beat an excellent Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay derby, his \"off race\" came next, but only because he raced on plastic/synthetic.  It was not a true off race.  As for Super Saver, I know you made a bundle on him in the Derby, so congrats, but he was a wet track wonder who showed that by running like a slug for the balance of his career (3 more races).

You might get better odds in the Derby Futures pool on To Honor and Serve, but I would forget Vegas.  Vegas almost never drifts horses up, just shrinks them.  I have seen horses off the Derby trail, still listed at short prices there.  But maybe 10-1 in pool 2 of the futures, if you believe that is a good price.

Tougher call on Soldat.  For those that played GP today, I am sure you noticed a solid speed bias.  Soldat got the front, the fractions were slowish, but you have to like the way he handled multiple challenges, as immediately after the longshot stopped pushing him, To Honor and Serve attacked, he got repelled and then he had plenty left to hold off Ramon, who gave his horse a great trip.  However, with Soldat\'s next race also slated to be at Gulfstream, we won\'t get to see if Soldat is one of the infamous spring \"Gulfstream Park wonder horses\", who run well on that usually glib, speed favoring surface, but can\'t run nearly as well at Churchill Downs.  I, for one, would have loved to see Soldat run in the Wood as his last prep, just to see if he needs his track to win.  

Derby fever is starting........

[ajkreider]

Not sure what to make of the track today.  Definitely a speed bias, but it didn\'t seem like the track was suped up.  The winning time in the FOY was nothing to write home about, but it did go two seconds faster than an earlier races with decent horses at that distance.

Interestingly, the Davona Dale winner and the Hutcheson winner also bested their similarly distanced races by 2 seconds.  It was pretty hot, so maybe that slowed things down a bit, for everyone (didn\'t notice any washed out horses, though).

[sekrah]

Agreed.

Honor and Serve has risen to the top of my Derby contenders after today.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sorry, but I will take the other side.  I thought
> he packed it in a bit way too early for a horse of
> his quality, who sat a good trip.  
>
> Also have to disagree with the Super Saver and
> Street Sense comparisons.  Street Sense ran a very
> strong race 1st time out to beat an excellent Any
> Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay derby, his \"off
> race\" came next, but only because he raced on
> plastic/synthetic.  It was not a true off race.
> As for Super Saver, I know you made a bundle on
> him in the Derby, so congrats, but he was a wet
> track wonder who showed that by running like a
> slug for the balance of his career (3 more races).
>
>
> You might get better odds in the Derby Futures
> pool on To Honor and Serve, but I would forget
> Vegas.  Vegas almost never drifts horses up, just
> shrinks them.  I have seen horses off the Derby
> trail, still listed at short prices there.  But
> maybe 10-1 in pool 2 of the futures, if you
> believe that is a good price.
>
> Tougher call on Soldat.  For those that played GP
> today, I am sure you noticed a solid speed bias.
> Soldat got the front, the fractions were slowish,
> but you have to like the way he handled multiple
> challenges, as immediately after the longshot
> stopped pushing him, To Honor and Serve attacked,
> he got repelled and then he had plenty left to
> hold off Ramon, who gave his horse a great trip.
> However, with Soldat\'s next race also slated to be
> at Gulfstream, we won\'t get to see if Soldat is
> one of the infamous spring \"Gulfstream Park wonder
> horses\", who run well on that usually glib, speed
> favoring surface, but can\'t run nearly as well at
> Churchill Downs.  I, for one, would have loved to
> see Soldat run in the Wood as his last prep, just
> to see if he needs his track to win.  
>
> Derby fever is starting........


Jim,

Super Saver ran a \'2.25\' going two turns over the CD surface at two, with a strong final 5/16. He ran a \'2.25\' in his final prep at three. Both of those races were run over dry/fast surfaces. Todd Pletcher excels 3rd out. SS ran a \'1.25\' in his 3rd start of the year in the Derby - only a point faster than the \'2.25\' he ran going two turns over the surface a year earlier (again, a dry surface). SS did exactly what he should have in the Derby - run a solid but not fast mile and a quarter to beat a mediocre group with a Calvin Borel inside trip. The wet track had nothing to do with anything. If SS had been a \"wet track wonder\", he would have won by eight lengths.

They scanned SS after the Haskell and he had significant condylar bruising in ALL FOUR legs.

[miff]

\"Honor and Serve has risen to the top of my Derby contenders after today\".


I must have watched a different race today, horse was empty, without speed/acceleration at any point in the running and spit the bit very early.Guaranteed Mott is vomiting somewhere right now!


Mike

[sekrah]

Mott is vomiting?  He\'s been saying all week that the horse needed a race.   Anyone who bet the horse today is a fool.

Would running a negative 1 floated your Derby boat?   It certaintly wouldn\'t have helped his Derby prospects as much as todays effort has.

This horse is in perfect position to peak and move forward in May.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

We will just have to agree to disagree.  How many Pletcher horses wind up with sudden ailments.  I am not going to buy that Super Saver was an excellent horse who suddenly injuured himself with the heaving bruising immediately after the derby and therefore never ran well again.  

As for To Honor and Serve, lots of kudos for a horse than ran about 3/4 of a mile today, and not particularly fast for that 3/4 of a mile.  

Mott was not happy with the race.  He commented afterwards that even if the horse needed the race, he would have expected him to carry Johnny V. along better in the stretch.  He was done by the top of the stretch.

[shanahan]

have to agree...lot of ground to cover on that layoff...I saw no reason to bet him, and have no reason not to think he\'ll be a serious player in 40 days.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> We will just have to agree to disagree.  How many
> Pletcher horses wind up with sudden ailments.  I
> am not going to buy that Super Saver was an
> excellent horse who suddenly injuured himself with
> the heaving bruising immediately after the derby
> and therefore never ran well again.  



There is nothing to disagree over Jim. You incorrectly stated that SS was a \"wet track wonder\", and I simply supplied the facts.

That SS was not an \"excellent horse\" is irrelevant, since nobody here made that claim.

And nobody claimed there was a sudden inury.



> As for To Honor and Serve, lots of kudos for a
> horse than ran about 3/4 of a mile today, and not
> particularly fast for that 3/4 of a mile.  
>
> Mott was not happy with the race.  He commented
> afterwards that even if the horse needed the race,
> he would have expected him to carry Johnny V.
> along better in the stretch.  He was done by the
> top of the stretch.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

Super Saver was one of the worst derby winners in the last 20 years.  Worse than Mine that Bird.

And he would not have won over a dry track.  He WAS a wet track horse.

On a dry track he couldn\'t pass Line of David.  Forget Pletcher \"3rd off the layoff\".  I have seen no stats that support that at all.

[sekrah]

I usually like your stuff jimbo, but that is simply absurd.

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

I pretty sure it is less absurd that saying that today\'s race by To Honor and Serve puts him to the top of your derby list.

I can understand why any fan of To Honor and Serve PRIOR to the race today, stays with the horse, based on his great 2 year old line and the fact that his top last year is likely already fast enough to win the Derby with the right trip.

However, saying that today\'s race PUTS him at the top of the list is pretty crazy.  Not saying he can\'t or won\'t win, but he now is a question mark for many.