Terrific result today for those of us who like Honor and Serve in the Derby

[big18741]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hopefully, he will have alot of doubters after
> today\'s race and his odds will creep up in Vegas
> and or in the next Futures pool.

I heard more than a few where I was watching the races yesterday say that To Honor and Serve was now toast and should be off the Derby Trail after yesterdays performance.He was paying 23.00 in Pool 1 so for sure he\'d drift up in the next one.Could go even higher in Pool 3.
>
> Mott said over and over he wasn\'t cranked for
> today and he won\'t be for the next one either in
> my opinion.  He was also carrying a bunch of extra
> weight and went wide all the way around today.

He really did have only six mostly easy works going into this.Hot day yesterday-he was lathered some going to the gate and was acting up a little.For sure his fitness level was well behind that of every other horse in the race.Basically he ran seven furlongs yesterday then spit it.Mott probably was hoping he had him a little bit further along but that certainly is something he can tweak with five weeks to the Fla Derby then five more to Churchill.
>
> Just like Super Saver last year or Street Sense in
> his year, the trainer wants to get his horse to
> run the big race on the first Saturday in May and
> not before.

Mott\'s been saying this since the Remsen.
>
> As far as I am concerned, this is the one that
> fits the profile of the Derby winner the best
> right now.

I thought that going into the FOY.Yesterdays result did not change that.
>
> No issue at all with the distance and ran fast
> enough as a two year old that he can work his way
> back to those numbers in his prep races and then
> run the new top in the Derby and not before.
>
Mott has to thread the needle here.Easier said than done?

> Obviously alot can change between now and then but
> I for one was really happy about today\'s outcome.

I was looking to add to the portfolio in Pool 2 so the result made me happy as well.IF To Honor and Serve is a healthy three year old this probably turns out to be a useful prep.Next five weeks and the Fla Derby # are the key.

[Footlick]

I like that you said he ran 7 furlongs, probably the length of race he should have been in.  But Mr Mott said he only wanted 2 turn races for him before the Derby.  He was short, let\'s watch his training and his Fla Derby race before writing him off.  It was Feb 26th, not the first Sat in May

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,


Hi Jim.


> Super Saver was one of the worst derby winners in
> the last 20 years.  Worse than Mine that Bird.


Last 20 years? Jim, is that why you typed in like 200 times that Super Saver would never win the Derby? Because you thought he was running against horses from the past 20 years?

Cross generational comparisons are very interesting, but not applicable in this case. SS figured to be a 1w/1w \'1\', and that made him competitive in a mediocre 20 horse field that was sure to see trouble.


> And he would not have won over a dry track.  He
> WAS a wet track horse.
>
> On a dry track he couldn\'t pass Line of David.


Ignore most all relevant data and info and list the name of a single horse that SS did not pass, in a PREP race? Jim, SUPER SAVER RAN A \'2.25\' GOING TWO TURNS WITH A GOOD FINISH OVER THE CD SURFACE AT TWO YEARS OF AGE, AND THE TRACK WAS DRY!!!! TO TYPE IN THAT SS\'s \'1.25\' AT AGE THREE, ONLY A POINT FASTER THAN HIS TOP AT TWO, SOMEHOW HAD TO BE SLOP AIDED IS JUST WRONG. AND YOU\'RE DOING IT KNOWING THAT JERRY MADE SUPER SAVER THE HORSE MOST LIKELY TO RUN WELL, ON PATTERN!!!


> Forget Pletcher \"3rd off the layoff\".  I have seen
> no stats that support that at all.


At the time of the Derby last year, Pletcher was 20% and $1.44 ROI 2nd off the layoff, 28% and $2.26 3rd off the layoff, a significant difference. New tops were similar, but 3rd off the layoff was a strong handicapping angle for Pletcher; the horses simply outperformed the board.




As for THAS ... well, it looks as though everybody is going to give the horse the benefit of the doubt in terms of conditioning, so there is little value in knowing that he was not cranked. I think there will be some value in the wide trip however. what was he, 5w/3w? he also carried 2 more lbs than Soldat .... my view at this stage will depend on the board, as usual. if THAS remains one of the top 3 favorites, I\'ll have to look at the glass half empty, and look elsewhere. If Mo doesn\'t return strong, this looks to be another mediocre crop. picking out a solid \'1\' or \'0\' type at a decent price might once again be the ticket.

[miff]

\"Would running a negative 1 floated your Derby boat?\"

Sek,

Numbers on a piece of paper are about half the puzzle to me. This horse was EMPTY at all points in the race, not short, somewhere between very very short or perhaps not further developed.Admit that one poor race should never be your total barometer.

For this very talented colt to run that dull yesterday, after a terrific 2 yr old campaign, is a poor sign.Had he hustled, fought and tired late,you could say he had a nice conditioner and expect him to move up off the race.

He has a long way to come after yesterdays abysmal performance,maybe a non factor for the derby unless his next race in about 6-8 lengths better.Incidentally translating Beyer, he ran about a TG 5(if both agree), the winner about a TG 2.

Good luck!

Mike


Mike

[covelj70]

Thanks for the thoughts Jimbo, it\'s always better when there\'s a healthy debate going on.

There\'s a long road to go before the first Sat in May so who knows what happens but right now, there\'s no one running Big Brown type of numbers so I think anyone with a good 2 year old top that they can work back to is very live and he\'s the only one that is both fast enough and has the pedigree to get the distance that I see out there right now.

Soldat ran a big one in the slop and he didn\'t look like he reacted too badly yesterday but I don\'t think that\'s a 1.25 mile pedigree so he\'s going to have to beat me on top in the Derby.  He reminds me of Closing Argument.  Very good horse that Kirian got very close with but hung just a bit in the final sixteenth of the derby like I would expect Soldat to given his pedigree.  

Uncle Mo isn\'t bred to get the distance

Brethern isn\'t fast enough

Dialed In still hasn\'t been 2 turns

Process of elimination is as good of an angle to find the derby winner as anything and right now, I think we can eliminate most of the contenders.

Still time for plenty of others to jump up.

Best time of the year

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Would running a negative 1 floated your Derby
> boat?\"
>
> Sek,
>
> Numbers on a piece of paper are about half the
> puzzle to me. This horse was EMPTY at all points
> in the race, not short, somewhere between very
> very short or perhaps not further developed.Admit
> that one poor race should never be your total
> barometer.
>
> For this very talented colt to run that dull
> yesterday, after a terrific 2 yr old campaign, is
> a poor sign.Had he hustled, fought and tired
> late,you could say he had a nice conditioner and
> expect him to move up off the race.
>
> He has a long way to come after yesterdays abysmal
> performance,maybe a non factor for the derby
> unless his next race in about 6-8 lengths
> better.Incidentally translating Beyer, he ran
> about a TG 5(if both agree), the winner about a TG
> 2.
>
> Good luck!
>
> Mike
>
>
> Mike



Mike, I think the difference between Soldat and THAS will be about 1.5 points. Ground is important here. We are dealing with a front-runner who got caught wide. This isn\'t phony ground stuff where the horse is gonna be 5w every time he runs.

Any pace experts here? Make THAS 5w around the first turn, and his opening 1/2 could be adjusted to about 47 1/5, no? A legit number for a winter 3 yr old making his first start in 3 months. Not enough excuse for the poor final 1/8, but a piece of the puzzle indeed.

[BitPlayer]

covelj -

Always enjoy your contributions to the board, especially at this time of year.

With regard to THAS, I\'m wondering if the Remsen fig isn\'t a bit inflated.  My guess is that neither THAS nor Mucho Macho Man has yet to get close to their fig in that race.

With regard to both THAS and Soldat, I think at some point you have to discount pedigree in favor of what\'s happening on the track. THAS didn\'t look like he wanted much more distance at the end of his Remsen, whereas Soldat seemed to level back out in the final 16th yesterday.

[miff]

Mike D,

Did not do the race yet but Soldat ran substantially better than only 1.5 points vs THAS, regardless of what any number on a piece of paper might suggest.

Mike

[alm]

Mike

We should be booking their bets on this one...not arguing.

[alm]

Not sure how you compare his result to Super Saver or Street Sense in their initial Derby year races...they ran well leading up to top efforts in KY.  This one did not.  He looked like a hot house horse to me last year and this run indicated he isn\'t moving up much from that.

[TGJB]

Hey guys-- have you looked at the calendar? (I seem to remember saying that before).

The number that matters with THAS is the next one, assuming it\'s his last prep.

Regarding Street Sense, he ran well off his 2yo top first time 3yo. The absolute number does not matter.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

Super Saver is not a good comparison to To Honor and Serve, which is what I said in my first post.  and in my second post, I said \"let\'s just agree to disagree\", which you didn\'t want to accept.  WE can talk all day about Super Saver and it won\'t change anything about what you believe or I believe.  You can talk about his two year old top at Churchill, I will point to his 3 year old races in the Arkansas Derby, Preakness, Haskell and Travers, all on dry tracks and in all races he ran like a slug.  His one good race was on the wet track in the Derby.  At least Mine that Bird ran well in the Preakness and Belmont, before falling apart, hence my comment about Super Saver being maybe the worst Derby winner in years.  

As for To Honor and Serve, we will see.  I don\'t know what he would have to do in the Florida DErby for me to make him my key.  If he runs well, he goes into the Derby as one of the favorites and becomes questionable value.  If he runs poorly, there will be doubts as to how he came back at 3.  I am much more interested in horses like Mucho Macho Man, Santiva and even Stay Thirsty and AStrology, assuming they come back in the next week or two.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> Super Saver is not a good comparison to To Honor
> and Serve, which is what I said in my first post.
> and in my second post, I said \"let\'s just agree to
> disagree\", which you didn\'t want to accept.  WE
> can talk all day about Super Saver and it won\'t
> change anything about what you believe or I
> believe.  You can talk about his two year old top
> at Churchill, I will point to his 3 year old races
> in the Arkansas Derby, Preakness, Haskell and
> Travers, all on dry tracks and in all races he ran
> like a slug.  His one good race was on the wet
> track in the Derby.  At least Mine that Bird ran
> well in the Preakness and Belmont, before falling
> apart, hence my comment about Super Saver being
> maybe the worst Derby winner in years.  
 


Jim, it\'s not about what anyone believes. It\'s about what the facts and data show. The data shows that Super Saver\'s sheet pointed to the figure he ran in the Derby, regardless of track condition. SS\'s Ark Derby run was only one point worse than his Ky Derby run (actually a pair on Ragozin). To somehow suggest that the one point forward move (or pair) and the rest of that sheet made the horse a \"wet track wonder\" is ludicrous. You have to completely ignore all reliable data heading into the race and pretend a number of things never happened  (yes, including the stakes record performance over the dry CD surface) to believe that SS was a \"wet track wonder\". You also have to pretend that the x-rays which showed significant condylar bruising in ALL FOUR legs were phony in order to use those summer races as evidence that somehow the horse could not run well over a try track. I don\'t think any serious person believes the horse was in top shape at that point.

Jim, if you know that both TG and Ragozin botched the figures that put SS\'s Derby right in line with his prior dry track efforts, or have evidence that the x-rays which showed the injuries were fake, I\'ll listen. Until then, you\'re simply giving an opinion not supported by the facts.

Super Saver was a good horse who beat a weak field with a great trip and rather pedestrian figure.



> As for To Honor and Serve, we will see.  I don\'t
> know what he would have to do in the Florida DErby
> for me to make him my key.  If he runs well, he
> goes into the Derby as one of the favorites and
> becomes questionable value.  If he runs poorly,
> there will be doubts as to how he came back at 3.
> I am much more interested in horses like Mucho
> Macho Man, Santiva and even Stay Thirsty and
> AStrology, assuming they come back in the next
> week or two.

[martoon]

Who was the one on the board last year that repeatedly kept pressing the fact the Super Saver was a toss because he never passed a horse before in the stretch?  That one cost me as it sure seemed to make a lot of sense at the time and i bought it....  
I\'m learning lessons every day though... ha ha

[joekay]

I don\'t know.  Basically, Soldat ran splits of 24, 24, 24, 25 , 13 and THAS made a little move into the 25 split and tired.  I can see not cranking him up for a fast quarter when needed at this point, but he should have built up more stamina.  I don\'t like the looks of it, but who else is there?