Looks like I am the only guy here who loves First Dude. I am totally licking my chops to bet him today.
When I look at FD\'s sheet -- I see a horse that has already run three negative numbers on the dirt at 2 turns. Those races were 1 and 1/8, 1 and 3/16, and 1 and 1/4. He was also in negative territory already by May of his 3 year old year. I look at his Belmont and Monmouth races as logical reaction to that May figure. His Travers and PA Derby races are both strong efforts. I completely ignore the bad rail BC Classic. Simply pretend the race is not there. Normal 4 year olds improve off their 3 yo form. Yes, his first effort was an off effort, but that happens, fortunately for me, I was not betting that day....to me, he is really sitting on a big forward move and it is time. There is no question whatsoever this horse runs a new top today (of course anything can happen in horseracing, but if this horse runs his race it is going to be a new top today). On top of running a new top, he is receiving 6 pounds from TC and the distance here works to FD\'s advantage not TC\'s. To me, if you give First Dude a minus 1 (and he can run better, I feel that is a modest top -- there are reasons to think he can do more), then TC needs to run a -2 assuming neutral trips just to pull even to First Dude.
When I look at TC\'s sheet, he is not bad, but he is not as well established as people are making out. He has run two turns on the dirt only once. That figure while a new top for him is not better than any of FD\'s three best races. Now TC has to stretch out in distance and step forward to make a new top again. Might he, yes. Is it likely, I think it is less likely he runs a new top than he doesn\'t. There are even reasons to think there is a chance that TC bounces today (although I do not plan to get fancy today -- my action is all First Dude to win -- with odds like that, you don\'t need anything else and I don\'t like getting fancy if I don\'t have to).
A race like this is what I live for in horseracing -- a race with an odds on favorite that is not the most likely winner in the race. Also, I think it is clear why there is such an odds discrepancy. TC is 6 for 7 and FD is 1 for 13. The great unwashed look at that above all else. Sometimes when you see a distortion in the odds, you wonder if people out there might have better information than you and maybe you are missing something important which explains the odds discrepancy. Today, I feel reasonably confident that is not the case.
Realize I am in the minority here (and it wont be the first time I go down in flames), but I really feel this race is a rare opportunity.
