California Figs - Again? - TGJB

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

I bought the special looking for horses that might be bettable in pool 2.  I didn\'t expect Sway to be 20-1 or better, but I was visually impressed with his fast closing 2nd to The Factor and the triple figure Beyer confirmed what I thought, which was that the race was fast.

However, in looking over all the horses on TG, the wet fast race where the Factor won, Sway was 2nd and Premier Pegasus ran 3rd was the race that stood out where TG disagreed substantially with Beyer. (I am sure there were others, but this looked like a 3 TG point disagreement, which is pretty big).  Sway\'s 101 Beyer, while 3 or 4 wide, equated to a 3 and change instead of the 0 to negative 1 I was expecting.  

Now, one race doesn\'t mean anything, but Premier Pegasus apparently running out of his skin in the San Felipe certainly gives me more concern about the figures given in the the previous race.

Any thoughts TGJB?

I am having deja vous to the Breeders Cup where a \"no shot\" Steve Wonderboy ran down Hennie Hughes, costing me a zillion dollars in multi-race bets and making me wonder about TG being slowish on the California figures.  With California switching to synthetics for the past 3 or 4 years, this became a dead issue (if anybody ever believed it was one, although I don\'t remember being alone with raising this).

Anyway, got shut out of my large futures bet on sway today, when the computers went down from 2:00 for the rest of the day in jersey (at least at Woodbridge).  Which likely means Sway is a good bet on the first saturday in may......

[ajkreider]

I\'m probably in the minority on this, but I thought PP was very good, not great.  The race said more about the rest than the winner.

If he\'d have run in the filly race (a good bunch, admittedly), he likely have taken fourth.  PP finished up the final 5/16 in 32.25, on a track that\'s been very fast.  His final 1/16, where he pulled out 5 lengths on the runner-up, was run in a pedestrian 6.68.

Beyer was a good 96, but that just puts him in the mix.  As for the rest . . .

[jimbo66]

I couldn\'t disagree with you more about comparing the two races.  Other factors besides final times factored in to the way the races finished.  

They went 21 and change, 44 and change, 1:08 and change, in the San Felipe, with three extremely fast horses warring it up on the front end.  

The filly race was a controlled pace set by the Baffert horse with the favorite having absolutely no excuse to not win that race.  She sat a perfect trip, the Baffert broke down, and St. Trinian\'s can\'t run on dirt.  When a slow slug like Miss Match wins the race, the race is not of quality.  

Pointing to the final 1/16th as slow when the pace was as fast as it was, is absolutely meaningless and misleading.

[ajkreider]

The San Felipe went in 1:08.98 - the filly race, 1:09:53.  Not exactly dawdling.

The SF went a mile in 1:34:55 - the filly race in 1:33.84.  A second quicker through that 2F.

The filly race finished 3/8ths in 37.80.  The SF went 32.25 for 5/16ths.  PP would have have to accelerate a lot to catch the fillies.

Visually impressive yes.  Fast?  Not so much.

[miff]

Both races came up with 96 Beyers. The filly winner impossible and should have paid at least $200.00.Re the SF, when the pace is that extreme you will almost always see the final 5/16ths slow.The winner PP still made a serious run when you consider how fast he had to run just to keep from losing total contact with the top 3(PP was 7-8 off early)

Very difficult if not impossible to compare raw times when one of the races has such extreme and contested early splits.

Mike

[big18741]

PP got his last 5/16ths in 31.33

The race fell apart with three maniacs on the front end wasting each other.

The spring three year olds routing went slow in California and came home fast on the pro-ride.Now on this new dirt they go fast and come home slow.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- first of all, a couple of general comments. As I\'ve discussed here, Beyer has California a little fast. I\'ve gone into why I think this is before but those guys have gone to school on me in the past and I don\'t want to go there again-- ask me in Saratoga. Friedman (who does California for Ragozin) has traditionally had just the one turn races too fast, as I have documented at length in the past. There is no danger of those guys going to school on that or anything else.

Since Santa Anita went back to dirt, as you might expect, some horses have jumped up-- this goes to the idea that we breed horses to run on dirt, and they are now getting a chance to show it. I would say in general that the races are going faster (better figures).

That aside, what you are asking is whether I had that race too slow relative to other California races. I went back and took a look, and right now there\'s no reason to say that, thought it\'s too soon to have a definitive answer. The track was wet/fast and the variant was all over the place all day-- it was moving so much that I wasn\'t able to make a figure for the maiden race that directly preceded the stake (lightly raced horses and no way to use the surrounding races). I added about a point to the stake relative to the following race, the last on the card. The stake itself had only six horses.

I would point out that PP wasn\'t the only horse out of that race to run in the San Felipe. Surrey Star almost definitely went back off the top he ran that day. PP had a good pattern going into the San Felipe, as I said (I actually tried to see if he could be bought), and Sway Away has a good pattern now as well-- a forward move next week would be no shock.

[jimbo66]

Aj,

You chose to look at the 3/4 split.  Yep, that is closer.

If you don\'t believe there is a difference between 21/44 and 23/46, then we don\'t need to continue to debate it.  To me, it is huge.  Much easier for a horse to run three straight 23\'s to get to 1:09 then go 21/44 early, then 1:09.  This isn\'t a pace board, so I will drop it from here, but similar Beyer or not, I will take the San Felipe horses every time and twice on Sunday.

[ajkreider]

Jimbo,

You\'re right, of course.  There is a big difference between 21/44 and 23/46.  

I think it important to note though that PP didn\'t run that.  He was 8 lengths back at the half and five back at 6F (1:09). For comparison, Switch was 4 back through the half in 1:46.4 and 3 back through 1:09.5.  So, for sure PP went through quicker, but not blazing.  Miff\'s correct though (and you), he had to work harder to stay in touch.  Hard enough to makeup for the slower finish?  Can\'t say.

Again, as I remarked earlier, I thought it was a very good effort.  The \"closers\" Jaycito and Bench points had no excuse at all, having gone through even slower, and the others look like they have no business at anything over 7F.  Which was why I concluded that the race says more about their quality, or lack thereof.

[miff]

AJ,

PP got a great set up but overall fired the best two turn prep fig of any 3yr old by my count(like in a TG 1 range after ground adjustment)Watch the replay,PP\'s sent pretty good very early and wide into both turns.

Think PP is ok and underrated,first time blinks off, has breeding,could have upside.

Mike

[Dana666]

I would consider Premier Pegasus a very serious Derby horse. The fact that Cho gave him some time off, time to mature over the winter, and the way he is blossoming now -- you have to be impressed. I thought his San Felipe win was awesome, the high cruising speed and the acceleration around the turn into a fast paced race, that\'s what I want to see. His breeding is impeccable, too. I like Dialed In a little, but what\'s he going to do in a race with a 45 second half mile or so, he\'s not going to be able to handle that and Pegasus can b/c those fast paced California races are exactly what these Derby hopefuls need, they get accustomed to the splits they\'ll see in the Derby. As a group I think the California runners are probably better than most think.  I wasn\'t that impressed with his sprint race against The Factor, but thinking about it, the Factor is a BC Sprint type, so really I should have upgraded PP\'s performance there -- in any event he ran a huge top in the San Felipe, that\'s for sure. Wonder if they\'ll keep Q aboard? He seems to get along with PP. Will be interesting to see what happens with his next start with the stretch out to a mile and an eighth though May is still a long time away!

[ajkreider]

Getting a mile and a quarter off a fast pace is indeed one of the things that makes the Derby such a challenge for these horses. Whether that\'s what the Santa Anita horses are getting is another matter.  

Seems like the argument cuts both ways.  If the SA races are indicative of horses being able to hang with a blistering pace, it\'s also an indication that the horses won\'t stay, as even the good ones are crawling home.  If their crawling home is a factor of the track, then so is their blistering pace (maidens regularly going 6F in 1:08).

Can\'t get a good feel for the track. (Adding .25 sec/furlong seems to give similar results to GP, all other things being equal.)

I guess that\'s why I\'ll be buying the Derby package. The Rebel will tell us something, I think.

[TGJB]

Blossoming? Cruising speed? You\'re killing me. Those things were different 3 weeks before? They might be different next time, coming off a big top, too.

[Dana666]

I\'m not just talking sheets, more horses in the flesh. Like, say, the race analyst liked Albergatti; well, that horse, as talented as he is, looks so young for a 3 year old it isn\'t funny; like he hasn\'t grown into his immense frame at all, and they should be waiting on him to fill in, and forget the triple crown entirely. They\'re going to ruin what might be a super horse in six or nine months or so.

Re: Premier Pegasus, he didn\'t run a new top? Could have fooled me??? In any event, he looked so much better physically than he did in his previous start it isn\'t even funny. Blew me away at how great he looked on the track before the San Felipe -- yes, exactly what I\'m saying, in three weeks like a completely different horse. After the Factor race he was sucking wind and could barely pick up his feet in the stretch, at the end of the San Felipe his ears were pricked like he was wondering, \"when does the race start?\" He had a huge turn of foot in a race with a 1:08:4 six furlongs -- very few horses do that. He is perfectly balanced with a terrific stride for a mile and a quarter -- notice how efficiently he moves, like he picks his feet an inch off the ground. I don\'t know, just my opinion, right, so who cares, but I was very impressed. It\'s a long way to the Derby but if had to pick right now, he\'d be very high on my list. That\'s all. Like you always tell me, much better if no one agrees with me anyway or I go against the popular wisdom!

[TGJB]

No, the point is that PP DID run a new top. He had the cruising speed before and there\'s a limit to how much he blossomed in 3 weeks-- but THIS day he ran the top.

And that\'s one of the problems with your analysis here and at other times. It\'s static-- you rate horses, rather than individual performances. The reason we put things on graphs here is because things are not static. PP will be capable of the same cruising speed next time-- but if he\'s still feeling the effects of this effort he\'ll run differently.

Your points on Albergetti are somewhat different. But however he might look, he probably looked the same last month when he ran a 4. Whatever this was about-- the effects of pace, inability to go long, a problem developing-- it wasn\'t because he was immature.

They all look great when they run tops. And yes, contrarian is good. The pick Sekrah made in the Big Cap is a classic  example of old school sheet pattern handicapping-- the public plays horses to be what they just were, if you are right that a horse will be better than that now you will be well paid for it.