Rebel

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I believe my eyes far more than geometry, in
> watching racing.

Miff, not to pile on, but is it also your opinion that the \"staggered start\" used in track & field events is irrelevant...if geometry / actual distance run isn\'t significant in competitive events?

[miff]

Al,

A couple of things from data that I use, not broken out by distance.

1.For a good portion of the meet,the inside at OP has been better than normal.

2.After 28 days of racing, Oaklawn showed 12 days favoring speed,12 days of  honest and 4 days closers.If I remember, I\'ll post the week in question when I get it.If you already looked at the charts, you would probably conclude speed but the formula I use does not count much the best,short priced, layover types going in.Think this method is far more representative than not weighting figs/ability going in and just looking at result charts.


Mike

[miff]

PHil,

I\'ll let you in a secret, wide has never or will ever be fast, it\'s wide!As a very general statement horses that are consistently wide are there because they are NOT fast.Of course there are races decided by who cuts the corner or not but there is far more to it than that.

In any event, whatever works for you is the way to go.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff--Okay-- now we have something to work with.

\"The inside at OP has been better than normal\". As measured how?

[miff]

Hi Rick,

Here\'s the best way to answer.In track and field there are no dynamics, path bias, trips and other stuff that you find in racing. More to the point:

Alydar was NOT as fast as Affirmed, but was faster on paper!

Sway Away did not run faster than The Factor in their previous race, not even close who ran faster or did more running. Go check their sheets and tell me that Sway is even close to being as racetrack \"fast\" as the Factor, right now.

Mike

[miff]

The normal win % from the fence at OP is app 14 over a few years that I have, until one week ago that was app 20%.Reasonable assumption off %, no?


Mike

[TGJB]

NO. That\'s the point. Win percentages REFLECT the effects of ground loss. If you show me that the FIGURES we\'re giving out at OP for horses in outside paths are better than those racing on the inside you\'ll have something.

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Do you have the stats on the quirky mile races there that start and end at the 1/16 pole ? They seem to run a lot of them and I\'m wondering of the 119 races to date over a mile, how many were at that mile distance ? The 1,2 holes are winning at over 35% for races over a mile at the meet. Distance races make up 37 % of the races run to date.

I mentioned in my first post about The Factor\'s race that Oaklawn has always been a puzzle to me. I had this conversation with \" Mr. Brown \" a couple of years ago at the Spa and he told me I was nuts ! Not really but claimed he never saw a discrepancy in Oaklawn figs. All I know when I used to play there a lot and when I lived in Chicago in the 80\'s is when Oaklawn horses came to Arlington ( the old plant ) in those days with big Beyers they never ran back to them !

Just curious if anyone else has had similar issues with Oaklawn numbers over the years ? Beyer, Rag\'s or TG\'s they never seemed to translate well for me from there.

Frank D.

[Lost Cause]

I\'m at 37 now so i\'m getting called mister more and more each day.  The weird thing is that older women are starting to look better and better.  Not a great trade off but I\'ll take what I can get..

[miff]

Okie Dokie, the fence is NFG routing at OP!

[TGJB]

No, it\'s very good. Like it is every place where the rail isn\'t dead. It just has nothing to do with bias.

[alm]

I can\'t answer your question, but on Saturday I saw something that surprised me a bit.  Calvin Borel had a horse in a sprint, in an outside post, which was not a \'need the lead\' type, but he rushed it out of the gate and took over the rail as fast as he could get there.

Halfway through the race I thought the horse would tire from the early effort, particularly because this was not its style.  NOT the case.  It led every step of the way.

Clearly he knew there was a bias and wasn\'t going to let anyone else have it.  If anything can screw up your figures, it\'s a track bias.  Closers also seemed to be flailing very wide on the turns on Saturday, reducing their chances, if they had any to begin with.  Couple all that with the short stretch and it\'s a very hard place to deal with.

[sekrah]

Agreed.. the rail was the place to be all day Saturday. I\'m ready to fire on JPG.

[toppled]

I remember about 20 years ago, years before I had seen the Thorograph #s, I used to disregard the high Beyers on Oaklawn horses when they shipped to Churchill or NYRA after OP closed for the season.  I haven\'t noticed that problem with Beyers or TG in recent years.

[Silver Charm]

I think Robert Shaw was Mr. Brown in Pelham 1,2,3. Or maybe he was Mr. Grey.

Regardless off that line The Factor looks explosive! Which with a top of 1.5 he is gonna need to be. But the Derby isnt his next race.....Or maybe it should be.....