Louisiana Derby

[number5858]

There is a nice little trainer angle on the #10 Left. Twice in the last 4 years, trainer Al Stall Jr. has entered lightly raced colts off allowance wins in the Louisiana Derby and finished 2nd. I think you have to seriously consider #10 underneath.

[big18741]

Both of those Stall horses had speed and inside posts.

This race looks pretty paceless so those outside horses are kinda screwed right?

[number5858]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Both of those Stall horses had speed and inside
> posts.
>
> This race looks pretty paceless so those outside
> horses are kinda screwed right?

That\'s why I like the horse better underneath, but the horse is still an overlay at 10-1. Looks like a crafty trainer after a nice purse with a slick move. There was a trainer at Saratoga who used to use this move. Every summer she would take an allowance class turf horse with a mediocre looking record and win a nice stakes using this move.

[riskaverse]

I found a online book to give me even money on the field vs. Mucho Macho Man.
I don\'t think my mediocre handicapping will allow me to find better value than that.

[sekrah]

Race looks ripe for a bomber if you ask me.

Could see either Nacho Business and Pants on Fire running a 2-3 here at 1w1w.   If Nehro doesn\'t bounce he\'s got a shot with a trip too.

Left or Elite Alex are eligible to move forward as well.   Machen definently live.

Still not sure what I\'m going to do here.   Maybe the a-entry.  I\'ve heard good things about Nacho Business.  I could see him getting away with an early lead and wiring this one.  


Other plays:

- Tapit Dancer and Switching Gears look like solid priced keys for the FG Oaks.

- Sleepless Knight will be my key in the Mervin Muniz handicap.  Southern Anthem, Workin for Hops, and Joinem underneath.  BoH giving up too much weight here.

- Musketier looks like he might end up an overlay in the Pan American at Gulfstream.  Anything near his ML of 3-1 is good value.

[jack72906]

I like Nehro a lot in the LaDerby. Just closed at a mile from the 10 post at Oaklawn which is tough to do. I know it\'s a big jump, but at the price I\'m going to use him.

I also like Mavericking. Good post/20-1ml/Empire Maker...and......first time on dirt

Good luck everyone

[richiebee]

Agree in the La Derby, I will take a shot against the fastest entrant, who might
be 6/5 when all is said and done. A spread race in the MRWs

In the Muniz Bof H scratched, I like Joinem and Smart Bid (Motion very good last
90 days).

FG Oaks will take a flyer with lightly raced St Johns River. According to TG,
this one\'s half sister, Panty Raid, a TAP SW, was rapid as a 3YO.

At GP in the Pan Am, will also be taking a shot against the Prince, a likely 6/5
fave. Bounce candidate off the big move forward in last plus weight = toss. Using
 both Attfields and the second time TAP Loup Breton.

In the finale at Hallandale, Weaver\'s Criminal Saga is much slower (5 TG points)
than the logical ones, but the breeding (More Than Ready/ El Prado mare) is
irresistible to me going 9 furlongs grass in a cheap MCl. Velasquez will ride,
will hurt the price, maybe the light goes on today.

[Bigredgoer]

Sek
Well done!!!!!!!!!!!

[sekrah]

Thanks. Needed it.  Hadn\'t done much since Dubai.

[P-Dub]

Some really nice selections today Sekrah. Congrats on the World Cup, hopefully you got that nice exacta here.  Not to mention the very solid ROTW analysis.