3 Year Old Colts

[jimbo66]

Some good picks on the board today and congrats to Covelj on the stakes win.

Looking at the big picture, as in Kentucky Derby picture, today\'s 1 million dollar derby prep really is emblematic to me of the gap in talent of this year\'s 3 year olds.  Pants on Fire is a marginally talented colt, at best.  100-1 right now in the Derby.  

Watching this race makes this gambler think there may not be money to be made in the Derby this year.  

Looks like the two most talented 3 year olds on the Derby trail are Uncle Mo and The Factor.  

Then there is a gap to Soldat (IMHO).

Then a huge gap to about 20 others.  

Other than a miracle bounce back to his 2 year old top next time out in the Derby for Mucho Macho Man, none of today\'s horses are even marginal contenders.  Machen, extremely disappointing, flattening out like a pancake late after making what looked like a decent move.  Elite Alex over-rated reputation.  Nacho Business, the half of the entry that people were most likely betting, didn\'t run at all.  (even Breen said he was hoping Pants on Fire would set it up for Nacho Business).

I am hoping to see something the next few weeks in the Florida Derby, Wood, Arkanas Derby, etc to make me believe there is a price horse out there to key on.

[covelj70]

Thanks Jimbo.  Really appreciate that.

On the Derby issue, maybe Honor and Serve takes a step forward next weekend?

[miff]

\"Pants on Fire is a marginally talented colt, at best. 100-1 right now in the Derby\"

Jim,

Kelly Breen smart young trainer probably spent the evening baiting the hook for some wealthy arab or other sucker to pony up a chunk for POF(think he\'s common with most of them in there yesterday).He\'s done it  a few times before.Ran a 94 Beyer app a TG 3,decent but not a derby horse,imo.

Mike

[miff]

Nice win Cov and good strategy \"sending\" on that TP surface which carried speed pretty well yesterday.Did not show early gas before so I was surprised to see him force to the front.Nice fig from Beyer, 89 top and with ground, a top on TG 4.5ish if JB agrees with Beyer.

Nice colt,lots of surface options.

Good Luck

Mike

[TreadHead]

Also keep in mind MMM ran this entire race on 3 shoes and has a huge 2 yr old figure, although one could argue that it would appear he is not back to that figure 3 races into his 3yr old year.

Just a side question, how much would a thrown shoe really impact a horse\'s ability to run, a couple of points?  Do you use this as an \"excuse\" or could his race still be considered an \"effort\" that might knock something out of him, especially since he ran well?