Florida Derby

[sekrah]

Soldat - Looks like an 0-2-X and figures to have some new challenges from that rail position.

To Honor And Serve - Best horse in the field.  Mott\'s a long-term planner and this horse is just getting geared up.  Mott had zero intentions of winning the FOY.   A Remsen-type TG 0 is coming here, setting up a new top for the Derby.

Arch Traveler - Pedigree challenged to get 9 furlongs.  Bad call by Jerkens trying to force him into the Derby.

Bowman\'s Causeway - Shoulda popped last time if he was going to develop into anything special.  Might have a 2 point move in him, but a 4 won\'t be quick enough.

Shackleford - Still recovering from that Feb 5th Allowance win.    Chance to be good down the road, but I don\'t see it here.

Stay Thirsty - Didn\'t gallop out the Gotham strongly and it wasn\'t exactly grueling fractions.   Catching 6 more pounds here, looks like a regress to me.  Blinkers on is a big negative.  His best efforts were when he got away loose or clear on the outside.  In the BC Juvenile, Uncle Mo came up on the outside of him with speed and startled him, and then didn\'t like the dirt getting kicked on him.  He was staggering all over the place during the stretch drive.  Flashpoint on his outside here explains the blinkers.  Could play out very similar.  Not the type of horse you look to get 9 furlongs against a field like this, nor a legit Derby contender IMO.

Dialed In - Legit Contender to move forward here.  Considering the slow pace of that Allowance test against older horses, His 5 looks more like a pair to me and he looks prime and ready to go forward.  A move to 1 or 2 looks very reasonable.   Should eat up the extra distance, but not much value a 2-1.   The only one here that can keep THAS from winning this race.

Flashpoint - Bounce coming off the monster Hutch effort.   Again, no business getting the classic distances with his pedigree, but I would not be shocked to see everyone else let him get away with some moderate fractions.  In that case he hangs on for a piece of the exotics.

WIN - #2 TO HONOR AND SERVE
PLACE - #7 DIALED IN
SHOW - #8 FLASHPOINT
SUPERFECTA - #3 ARCH TRAVELER / #4 BOWMAN\'S CAUSEWAY


Prediction sure to go wrong:  Soldat and Stay Thirsty miss the board.

[big18741]

Think the slower pace actually helped Dialed In last time at 9 furlongs.With Miss Doolittle on the bottom I don\'t see him with a big late kick in a fast paced two turn race.I\'m trying to beat him off the board.Betting that he\'s more of a one turn closing sprinter/miler.Hearing some comparisons to Ice Box but the dams couldn\'t be more opposite-Spice Island vs Miss Doolittle.

Arch Traveler works,pattern and five weeks suggest a little bit better run this time at the distance.Think he could hang around for a check.

Bowman\'s Causeway is being raced into some sort of shape.Worked on Jan 27th and not again until March 28th.One turn mile not ideal for him so that had to be an exercise race.Think he can clunk up here in a fast paced nine furlong race.Slowpoke but he\'s ideally bred for this trip.



THAS over some combo of Soldat,Arch and Bowmans for me.

[Michael D.]

How do you handicap Pletcher\'s Stay Thirsty? R Heat Lightning, a Trippi filly, just ran 4w/3w under 122 lbs and finished the 9f in 1:49.2. Do you know how fast that is for an April 3 yr old filly?

Good luck with THAS. I think he gets a good trip and runs in the 1 range, which should put him right there. Gomez fits this guy well. After DI\'s visually impressive Holy Bull run, the word \"overrated\" immediately came to mind. Today\'s race shape fits like a glove, however, and Zito\'s one-run types usually fire in this race. Soldat is Soldat and could be right there if there are no stars today, though the trip will be more demanding. Flashpoint has some distance blood below and could get 9f under the right circumstances, but he\'ll have to gun with the speed inside. A tough spot for a two-turn debut.


Great race, but I\'m having a tough time getting past the favorites.

[SoCalMan2]

If morning line is correct, I agree good betting race.  THAS looks strongest and jockey change is massive in my opinion.

Big Q -- what on earth do you make of Flashpoint?  Horse has never bounced?  Could be anything, right?  Soldat moved already in the wrong direction so you have some indicator that the -1 may well be having an impact.  On this horse, who knows?  Also, raceshape suggests he will have lead all by himself.  What do people think of his breeding in terms of getting the distance?

Soldat to me looks like a horse that will take a lot of money and should go into the dustbin of the study of what happens to 3yos with negative figures before the derby...he is already in regress mode and will not be back to his top by Derby time is my prediction.  Dial In looks slower than people think...I think the hype on this horse outweighs what the sheet is showing so far.

[shanahan]

MIke Welch just was interviewed on the LA show and said that flashpoint did not want to work on thursday...distance doubtful regardless.

[number5858]

Seemed like a strange ride by GG on THAS. Why go out that fast? Didn\'t really look like he was trying to win. Thought the horse looked great in the paddock. In for a penny, in for a pound. I put more on THAS in the futures again as I think Mott will still have him ready come the first Saturday in May.

[MonmouthGuy]

Will be difficult for me to bet THAS off of these two preps. He doesn\'t look like he wants any part of 10F. No excuses today. The early speed he chased kept going, and DI ran by him like he was standing still.

I don\'t think he moved forward at all off of his last.  You will get 20-1 on him at Churchill if Mott even sends him, but I don\'t think he will be near the exotics.  Don\'t recall if I have ever seen him pass a horse.

[jimbo66]

Number,

In for a penny, in for a pound is one way to put it.

Another might be \"good money after bad money\".  How anybody can watch To Honor and Serve\'s races this year and think \"Derby Winner\" is beyond me.  For that matter, I am not sure how anyone can bet Billy Mott right now.

I know he is a hall of famer and has done 8 thousand things right in his career, but anybody who is watching/betting his horses right now can\'t be pleased.  He is 7 for 100 at Gulfstream, with quality quality horseflesh.  None of his horses are coming to the track fit and ready to run.  To Honor and Serve was miserably short first time out, was short again today, the Breeders Cup Distaff winner was ready to run about 3/4 of a mile of her 1 1/8 race.  Drosselmeyer was ready to run about 3/4 of a mile of his 1 1/8 race.

His horses are all flat and short right now.  

No excuses for the horse today.  If To Honor and Serve took the lead top of the stretch and then got caught late by Dialed In, that would be one thing.  But he never even got by the 70-1 shot, despite saving ground and getting a good hustling ride by Gomez.,  

Stick a fork in him.

And buyer beware betting on Mott right now.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

I will be anxious to see how the number comes back but this one was alot more troubling to me than the last one.

In the last one, it was his first race back, Mott said he didn\'t have him cranked, he was giving away 6 pounds and he was very wide all the way around.  The number came back fine for a first effort as you saw.

Really none of those excuses today as you say and I don\'t think he moved forward numbers wise as you would like to have seen to think he could run back to his big number in the Derby.

He\'s a horse that doesn\'t carry alot of weight so maybe those big efforts last year took a greater toll than they would on a big robust horse.  

If he moved forward at all on the sheets in this one, I will still be tempted on Derby Day at what will be a big price but I don\'t think he moved forward in which case he\'s hard to use at any price next month.

[buckets]

After watching the Florida Derby the only possible way I would even think about a wager in the Derby on THAS would be if GO Go stays with him? Looked like he hit him at the mile pole but had nothing left in tank!

[number5858]

I certainly can\'t say I was pleased today. I thought it looked almost like a mile workout. I will definitely be looking to see if GoGo stays on him. I have to state the obvious that GS isn\'t CD. Maybe the horse just doesn\'t like GS. I didn\'t put a bunch extra on him in the 3rd pool today, just a little bit more. Mott is one of those guys who can turn it around and knows how to get a horse ready for a given race. He didn\'t need the graded earnings to get in. If I were only looking at the last two races, then I would agree the horse doesn\'t want 10f in any way, shape or form, but Mott said he was his best Derby prospect ever. He should know if the horse can get the distance. I hope he just doesn\'t like GS and came out healthy. I would rather take my chances at his odds than the 3-1 on Uncle Mo or the 5-1 on the winner.

[FrankD.]

Jimbo,

I can\'t agree more with THS and the proverbial fork ! I didn\'t like his FOY race and didn\'t buy the 80 % excuse. He looked bad that day and much worse today. Dialed In is the only horse that ran a step today. Is Shackleford now a Derby contender ?

Mott has had only a handful of Derby starters with zero success on the first Saturday in May. He\'s always been known as one who takes his time with young horses. Maybe THS hasn\'t matured or developed a bit from a his 2 year old campaign ? His performance makes me wonder if Mott was pressured to get this horse to the Derby ?

All those questions aside, his Gulfstream meet is almost unexplainable ? They all go through peaks and valleys even the great ones. But a single digit wining % with the stock in his barn ? I was looking for a big effort from Drosselmeyer second off the layoff, completely empty.

A puzzle for sure ? Maybe he needs a drug positive or two and we can then talk about him in the same breath with all the \"great one\'s \" of today ? You know like Dutrow, Rudy Rod, Nick Canani and another year of everything TAP has sent from Palm Meadows to the track running new tops ?

[RICH]

After looking at the race and red board room, I do not think anyone\'s pattern suggest Derby winner. I think there is no way the derby winner ran yesterday.

[big18741]

Appears the Remsen did a number on both THAS and Mucho Macho Man.Fast race for two year olds and neither can get back to that form.

See how Mott barn does in Kentucky but it would seem THAS is in trouble.Gomez was fooled into putting him up on the pace yesterday.Pretty sure Mott wanted him taken back off it but when Soldat and Flashpoint didn\'t break Gomez took off.That horse needs to be relaxed and in a rhythm.Yesterday he was not and down on the inside pressing.Might get some conditioning out of the race but not a lot else.

On the plus side he had some energy out on the track and looked good pre race and in the gate.FOY he was a mess.

Beyer for Dialed In-93 and he\'ll be a second or third choice in Kentucky on hype.Looking elsewhere for a closer in what should be a fast paced ten furlongs.

[ajkreider]

Slow race, all things considered. DI will get credit for being very wide turning for home.  Track also seemed to favor forwardly-placed runners as well.

Disagree about THAS and the pace.  Think he needs the lead.  In all of his wins he\'s leading at the half.  In three career losses, he\'s not.