Florida Derby

[Lost Cause]

I\'m not trying to knock the guys that took him at 15/1 in the futures pool but my question is why.  Based on the race I saw this horse will be at least 15/1 in the derby and he still has to make it there and I think getting there is a serious concern at this point.

[ajkreider]

Connection comments (from Downey)

Bill Mott: “He looked like he was a little anxious on the backside. It looked like they set honest fractions. He was actually in the game when they turned for home today. It was a better race than last time (3rd in Fountain of Youth) by quite a bit. But we still need to improve.”

Garrett Gomez:  “Ideally, I thought there was going to be two horses out there on the lead.  I thought Dutrow’s horse [Flashpoint] would be out there along with Shackleford.  I thought Soldat would break better.  I was hoping I would be able to relax him back and let something develop in front of me.  I didn’t want to persevere with him and take him to the lead.  Every time I tried to slow down and tuck in, Shackleford slowed down.  I was able to slide out at the half-mile pole without losing any ground and he ran on okay but seemed to run evenly in the stretch.  He got in a couple predicaments today that he had never been in before so hopefully he can continue to move forward off of this race.”

[ajkreider]

Nehro was around 65-1 at one point this weekend.  I never bet the futures on principle, but this one had me thinking.  By the time I convinced myself to do it, he was down into the low 40s and finished in the 20s.

[number5858]

Thanks for catching the \"place\" vs \"show\" typo. I fixed that.

[FrankD.]

One can go broke awfully quick in this game listening to trainer and jockey excuses.

I\'ve never seen any logical Derby contender look visually as bad on a racetrack as THAS has in his 2 preps. He\'s done absolutely nothing in either race ! Even if your a kool aide sipper not a drinker he\'s a no bet off his 3 year old sheet ?

Bombs away on Derby day here, why not the last 2 Derby winners have never won another race !

[Wrongly]

Jimbo

Both good points.  I didn\'t think his race was great, just thought it was better then the FOY.  If you\'re correct; the number was that poor with another backwards move, then I\'ll be tossing him as well.

[buckets]

If Go Go goes to another horse 40-1, If Go Go stays 15-1 to 20-1, I would not bet the house on him riding THAS this first Saturday in May!

[moosepalm]

number5858 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 Bill Mott hasn\'t been
> great of late, I guarantee you that he won\'t stay
> that way.


If you could only time the market....

[Silver Charm]

This horse has NO SHOT in the Derby so why are you still talking about him? A series of 49 breezes between now and then will not cut it. And this guy will not train him hard.

Also I posted on here a month ago Mott horses were a Toss!! Look it up it was a one comment string, if there is such a thing!!

[miff]

THAS/Mott beaten to death here,me included,an obvious cinch in the derby!


Mike

[sekrah]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not only is the paired 3, not a good thing, it is
> an awful thing, even if did happen.  (which as
> Miff points out, is unlikely given the slow
> time).
>
> Healthy 3 year olds get back to their 2 year old
> tops by no later than their 2nd start.  


So Street Sense wasn\'t a healthy two year old since he couldn\'t get back to his 2 year old top at the TB Derby or Bluegrass?

Here\'s my favorite jimbo quote from 2010:  \"He couldn\'t pass Line of David (who has a 1% chance to win the Derby) and he is going to beat the rest of these?  No Thanks.\"


Other thoughts:

I thought the pace was quick, even for the track that day.  It was certaintly much quicker than the Skip Away.

Shackleford is probably going to bounce from this, but I think ran a very credible race and will be a force down the road at 1 1/8.

Stay Thirst, Soldat pass.

I\'m remain very high on THAS, but I am closely tracking two or three potential bombers that may wreck the party on the first Saturday of May.   THAS CLEARLY improved off his previous effort and in my book ran bigger than he did last time where he threw in the towel after 1:12.2, he was still game after much sharper fractions this time.  He is prime time to run some big numbers over the next couple months and I\'m confident as ever of him as one of my keys in the Derby.  The poo-pooing on him right now is remarkably similar to the dismissing of Super Saver last year after his Arkansas Derby performance.   I\'m thrilled at the results Sunday and am excited at the though of possibly getting 20-1 on a horse that will have be the 2nd most likely to win the the race (after Uncle Mo).

I\'m on pins and needles for Sunday, May 8th to hear how THAS was lucky and how he beat such a weak Derby field.  

[analizethis]

Agree in general. One exception in this pool is Silver Medallion, if he shows any affinity on dirt in the SA Derby, he is a bargin at the pool close price of 41 -1.

[sekrah]

Silver Medallion is 50-1 at my main sportsbook.

[analizethis]

Speaking of gallop outs, the winner looked spent and walked back to the winner circle.

[RICH]

Come on, no similarity whatsoever, SS paired his 2yr old top twice before the Derby, that pattern screamed forward move. If SS had run two 4\'s before the derby, we would be talking about another winner on derby day