Just a quick thought on this year's crop

[mjellish]

I agree with what several others on this board have said about this year\'s crop being slow and unremarkable.  In addition, many of the ones that have shown something don\'t look like they have the classic breeding lines to move up at 1 1/4.  Meaning that someone with a decent looking pattern that is going to like the distance has a good decent shot of lumping up into the winner\'s circle, or least hitting the board.  

As a reference, take a look at the breeding lines of some recent KY Derby winners and compare them to some of this year\'s crop.


Super Saver – Maria’s Mon, Super Charger (A.P. Indy)
Mine That Bird – Birdstone, Mining My Own (Smart Strike)
Big Brown – Boundry, Mien (Nureyev)
Street Sense – Street Cry, Bedazzle (Dixieland Band)
Barbaro – Dynaformer, La Ville Rouge (Carson City)
Giacomo – Holy Bull, Set Them Free (Stop the Music)
Smarty Jones – Elusive Quality, I’ll Get Along (Smile)
Funy Cide – Distorted Humor, Bell’s Good Cide (Slewacide)
War Emblem – Our Emblem, Sweetest Lady (Lord at War)
Monarchos – Maria’s Mon, Regal Band (Dixieland Band)
Fusaichi Pegasus – Mr. Prospector, Angel Fever (Danzig)
Charismatic – Summer Squall, Bali Babe (Drone)
Real Quiet – Quiet American, Really Blue (Believe It)
Silver Charm – Silver Buck, Bonnie’s Poker (Poker)
Grindstone – Unbridled, Buzz My Bell (Drone)
Thunder Gulch – Gulch, Line of Thunder (Storm Bird)
Go For Gin – Cormorant, Never Knock (Stage Door Johnny)
Sea Hero – Polish Navy, Glowing Tribute (Graustark)

[albany]

I agree with your assessment.

If O\'Brien decides to come, do you give Master of Hounds a chance? I thought his comeback race in the Dubai Derby was very good, it was at approximately 1 3/16 miles on a track that should leg him up and his time stacked up well against the World Cup. Also, while his breeding is grassy, it has many stamina influences.

Could this be the year for a European runner?

Albany

[sekrah]

What\'s all this MoH talk?  Didn\'t he run like an 8 in Dubai?   There\'s 100 3yo\'s here who have done more than him.

[number5858]

I think it is coming about because on Dubai World Cup day, there was a mention that they were thinking about bringing MOH over if he did well.

[Footlick]

If he does he will be the only truly 10-12 furlong horse in the field.  Superstar breeding with Kingmambo as the sire and a Sadler\'s Wells dam.  But, it is nothing but turf, so it is a chancy proposition. The plus is that he needed the race in Dubai, so he most certainly will improve off that effort.  I might throw a flyer bet on him, but couldn\'t back him in the Derby with much confidence.  Does anybody know if he trained on the dirt at Churchill when he was there for the BC?

[big18741]

Arthurs Tale has a 10 furlong mother and father if we\'re talking about pedigree only.

Owsley won at 10 and 11 furlongs-Bernardini at 10.

[miff]

Amazing game, two starts back Arthur was hanging like a slug against inner track common types. MO bombs and every horse in the race now has a little license.

Mike

[jbelfior]

Miff:

Great point. We all tend to get caught up in an isolated event, especially if it was recent. A derby winner normally has an overall profile as opposed to one recent line.

I would seriously doubt that the Toby\'s Corners or Arthur\'s Tales of this field (including the Baffert maiden) end up wearing the roses.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[streetbull]

I really feel that mjellish put the breeding angle in perspective...

For years, I was obsessed with breeding  and \"dosage\"  by Rasmussen....I kept notes on chef de races and so on.  It wasn\'t until I dropped dosage entirely after Stike the Gold...that success ensued...

Food for thought...Mr.Prospector  was one of our most influential sire of modern breeding..Yet Mr.Prospecter was a 1:08 sprinter on the race track.. John Henry was sired by Ole Bob Bowers and Sunday Silience was literally a \"Black Duckling\" whose dam had no black type in her past.  SUnday Silence went on to become the most prolific sire in Japan racing...JMHO

[JimP]

The overall body of work of Toby\'s Corner doesn\'t seem all that bad to me. Why should we be negative on him at this point. Don\'t know what figure he got in the Wood. If he went back, then I guess the line doesn\'t look so good. But if he went forward a little from his last number, wouldn\'t that be a decent line going into the Derby?

[miff]

Jim P,

Think it was a small forward move but he had a very good inside trip(was stopped very briefly mid stretch). Can you really see him in a 20 horse field overcoming any kind of ground loss/tough trip and winning? Not that any of the other ones can but he only seems to be a nice colt with just decent figs.

With MO now looking mortal, the derby is a skullbuster today.Maybe the last 2 preps will shed some more light.


Mike

[sekrah]

I hear Baffert\'s maiden looked phenomenal on the way back to the Barn after the race and has been killing his feed.

Something else interesting.   MI\'s final furlong was about 12.2.   The check in the stretch to CTTT moving out, that caused MI to lose alot of momentum was about 10 feet short of the 1 1/8 pole.

[number5858]

That is a nice final furlong time, but the Beyer came back at 95. Could it be a case similar to Colonel John where he just won\'t be fast enough? That\'s still a lot of improvement needed to win on the first Saturday in May.

[ajkreider]

I would hope they came home quick.  Given the times they\'ve been running at SA (:45 halves and 1:09 6F), going :47.3 and 1:11.5 is downright pedestrian.  But there\'s no doubt it was a good performance - especially with the check in the stretch. Looked the part of a horse that belongs.

The downside was that he narrowly beat CTTT, who had finished 4th in his two previous races (maybe with excuses in each).  Comma\'s connections, until yesterday, seemed convinced that he wasn\'t a classic distance horse.  MI is coming off two big performances in a row, which suggests a bounce coming.  Got passed on the gallop out by three horses to his inside. And looking at his races, this seems like a horse who doesn\'t like to take dirt (being outside probably cost him a win in his second).  This pattern - big win in the slop, big win in a top flight stakes race, flopping when caught behind horses - we\'ve seen already this spring.

[big18741]

MI\'s maiden win was a big performance?