New tops-last Derby prep

[big18741]

Going all the way back to 1997 there were 45 horses with a 3 or more point jump in the last prep.Here is how they ran at Churchill:

Top  4%
Pair 7%
Off  16%
X    73%


Mine That Bird and Big Brown were the only two that ran another top-both won.

There were three horses that paired-Charismatic won,Ice Box was in the exacta and Circular Quay was a wide wide off the board.

Seven horses ran off races.Of those two were in the bottom of the tri-Musket Man and Indian Charlie.Two were in the bottom of the super-Papa Clem and Tale of Ekati.

The other 33 horses X\'d.Skip Away not included from 1996 was another jumper who bombed in the Derby.

[Wrongly]

Thanks for that, good information!

[miff]

Big,


The derby must produce a very high percentage of runners X\'ing in all categories.Isn\'t it safe to assume that at least half the field will X.

Is there an under and over on the number of horses that will X in this years derby.

In previous years, whats the average percentage of X\'s regardless of any pattern/fig/new big top going in,if you know. Thanks


Mike

[big18741]

Good question.

I\'ll take a look in the next day or two.

[Caradoc]

Mike: Last year\'s Derby seminar collected the TG figs for all Derby starters in the years 1995-2009.  In that period 121 of a total of 259 Derby starters X\'d, or 46.7%.

[jbelfior]

Mike:

Agreed. Not surprising considering most will face a pace scenario, distance, and field size that they have not and may never face again.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TopForm]

Here are the percentages going back to 2000 on New Top, pair, off, x\'s without taking into consideration post position, track condition, prep numbers, ect....

2010 - New Top 15% , pair 0%, off 15%, x\'s 70%

2009 - New Top 11% , pair 0%, off 21%, x\'s 68%

2008 - New Top 11%, pair 11%, off 16%, x\'s 62%

2007 - New Top 20%, pair 20%, off 25%, x\'s 35%

2006-  New top 5%, pair 15%, off 20%, x\'s 60%

2005 - New Top 10%, pair 15%, off 0%, x\'s 75%

2004 - New Top 5%, pair 5%, off 26%, x\'s 64%

2003 - New Top 6%, pair 25%, off 25%, x\'s 44%

2002 - New Top 12%, pair 18%, off 18%, x\'s 52%

2001 - New Top 6%, pair 24%, off 6%, x\'s 64%

2000 - New Top 24%, pair 6%, off 6%, x\'s 64%

Averages -  New Top 12.5% , pair 13.9% , off 17.8% , x\'s 65.8%

[miff]

Thanks,many contributing factors to the high % of X\'s in this race.

Very tough race to take anything resembling a short price this year but thinking the favorite may be in the 5-1 area.Every horse I liked at one point or another, gone.


Mike

[TopForm]

I am very interested in what factor post position played in these figures.

[MonmouthGuy]

Races run on off tracks in the last decade have been debacles (85-90% Xs.)