Wanted, a 3 year old that is bettable to win the derby...

[jimbo66]

Congrats to Sekrah and APNY on some great calls on the board today.  

That said, what exactly does one do as far as handicapping this year\'s Derby.  

Uncle Mo and The Factor, the two best horses of this class, may go in the Derby, but if they do one will going in off antibiotics and a miserable performance, the other with a flipped palate and miserable performance.

Dialed In likely next tier, but a one run closer in a huge field.  Haven\'t seen the TG number for the Florida Derby yet, but this guy won\'t be going in real fast and will likely be the favorite.  Good luck with that.

Premier Pegasus, To Honor and Serve and several other injured horses were interesting before going by the wayside.

How to analyze the last round of preps?

Today\'s Bluegrass, with apologies to APNY who nailed the top 4, will be very meaningless AGAIN in the Derby.  

Today\'s Arkansas Derby doesn\'t give me strong feelings about the 1-2 finishers, although would like to see the numbers first before finalizing that.  Sway Away can\'t get the distance and doesn\'t have the cash.  Elite Alex was over-rated all year long.  JP\'s Gusto should be removed from consideration.  

SA Derby was a bunch of slow horses, with TG tops around 7 prior to the race.  Midnight Interlude likely earned a contending number, but winning the Derby with no foundation at all?  

I actually like Toby\'s Corner a little bit, which says how bad my handle on the DErby is.  

Mucho Macho Man, by not running lately, is starting to look better off workouts.

Looking forward to reading some good ideas on the board about the Derby, because I have none.....

[mjellish]

Boy oh boy is this post DEAD ON.  Mucho Macho Man looking best off of works, now that\'s some funny stuff Jimbo...

You know you\'re really not liking anyone when you play a horse like Truman\'s Commander to win the Arkansas Derby, and play him over/under The Factor, Sway Away, & Nehro in the EX.  I had no interest in betting the Blugrass.  Just very happy for AP and anyone else lurking on this board that found their way into cashing on that one.  

To me it looks like a TG 2 will probably win the KY Derby this year unless someone points a good filly towards May 7th instead of the 6th.  If not I\'ve probably got a better chance of being enthusiastic about a 2012 Presidential candidate than I do about a horse in this year\'s KY Derby.  

I\'m going to have to do a lot of work in the next 3 weeks to sort this one out.

[BB]

Can\'t recall a year with so many of the fast ones going south so late in the game. A couple of weeks ago there didn\'t seem to be any value in Pool number 3, but that (almost) 9-1 on the field looks pretty great right about now. Wish I had some.

Two things. If you put a line through AAA\'s 2011 debut (where he clearly didn\'t handle the fog, or maybe it was the off going), you have what seems to be a pretty nice pattern heading into Louisville. Also note his fast debut at 2, at CD (considering the slow away and getting checked later).

Second thing is that I would not be surprised if Aidan O\'Brien decides that this is a good year to take a flyer on winning the Derby. Supposedly, Master of Hounds is being pointed for either Louisville or Newmarket, and, given the way that Frankel ran today (the books cut him from even money to 1/2 for the 2000 Guineas), it might very well be Louisville. Just what Jimbo is looking for ... a horse with a great 2YO line (on Turf!), and, one very strong 3YO start (on Tapeta!).

[drbillym]

Davidowitz has mentioned that Animal Kingdom, turf bred by Leroidsanimeaux,  if trains well on dirt, may go into the Derby.  Are you out there, Barry? It seems that a horse coming into form, rather than one reversing form, may be what to look for.  (FWIW oscar nominated film, Animal Kingdom, is quite good.

Also FWIW, it\'s 5 am and with a hangover, I\'m looking at the TG numbers for the 8th at GP today.
Coffee Run-too slow
Hot Cat-43% trainer first off claim
Pay Your Way-too slow
Florida Straits-6 yr old with 2 year layoff-pass
For Terina-consistently mediocre
Miss Nepal-has improved with better trip(right, Rick B.?) and now better trainer, but why the dropdown?
Truly A Myth-Possible-TG numbers better than form appears
Kaleigh Rose-underlay, but use in tri\'s
Unseen Glory-too slow
Thewifedoesn\'tknow-improving-ok for part
Blazing Honor-owned by friends, so I am partial, but was given a race last time, unpublished good 4f breeze last week, will improve
Norma Claire-too slow and bad post

Will box 2-11, wp 11. and dd  2,6,11 with Dagney Darling in 9th

[sekrah]

I\'ll play with you billy.   Assuming this stays on the turf of course.

1 Coffee Run - Agreed, too slow, 15 1w1w won\'t win this.
2 Hot Cat - Getting Catalano is nice but he\'s always run his better on dirt, which follows his breeding.  13-14 likely.
3 Pay Your Way - Plus going longer today.  I think he can run back to a 15 here, but again that\'s not good enough.
4 Florida Straits - 13-14? Those connections are horrible.  Pedro Monterrey?  Terrible.
5 For Terina - Horse has been running 13\'s for a long time, Pico Central offspring usually explode at 4 years old.  Bocachica is very studly jock on the turf down here and rolled these types in before.  Definent use at the price, but needs luck with traffic.  Don\'t forget that 10 at CRC last June!
6 Miss Nepal - Use underneath but not thrilled.  Bounce possible, and despite tag drop, this is a tougher field than the one she waxed at Tampa last time out.
7 Truly A Myth - Breeding doesn\'t want anything to do with two-turn turf.  Pass
8 Kaleigh Rose - Major contender/Likely favorite, TG 10 likely, but running style could force her a little wider than others.
9 Unseen Glory - Ran new top in turf debut at Colonial last year, I like him 2nd off the layoff here but class jump might prove too much.  Could run that 13 though which is only 2-3 points off the best here.
10 Thewifedoesntknow - 11-12, likely 2nd choice, and lots of tactical speed, could grab the lone lead and run with it.  Must use somewhere in there.
11 Blazing Honor - Prado butchered the ride last time out.  Paco is a huge upgrade, and this one has a 11-12 in him as well.  Use.
12 Norma Clair - Slowww.


For Terina has value to me, I think you\'ll get 15-1 on her and Bocachica is more than capable.  

Thewifedoesn\'tknow is my next choice here, there\'s a decent chance she could get out loose and control the tempo here.  If the price is right I could see moving her to the main key, but she\'s a def use.

6-11 in the next tier, and a couple bombers on the bottom of the ticket, the 3 (50-1 maybe?) and the 9

Now after doing all that, they\'ll move this to the main and half of them will scratch :-P.

Good luck!



As for jimbo.. I disagree.  I thought yesterday cleared up alot of issues.  I can say with 90-95% confidence that I think I have the winner narrowed down to 1 of 6  (Uncle Mo, Midnight Interlude, Archarcharch, Nehro, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man).  There\'s a couple others I am eager to see work in the days leading up to the Derby (Sway Away being one, i think he got more out of yesterdays race than any race he\'s run yet), that I will consider.  In a 20 horse field with all kinds of big exotic prices floating around, I don\'t think that\'s too shabby at all.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

Great post

Couldn\'t agree with you more.

Once I jinxed The Factor by touting him as the next big thing, that sealed the deal that there\'s nothing good at all in this year\'s Derby.

R Heat Lightening would be tower over these colts with 2 negative TG figs in the last two races.  I don\'t know if R Heat would like the 1 1/4 but she sure got the 1 1/8th well last out which is more than I can say for the The Factor and Uncle Mo.

I have that futures ticket on Archarcharch at 250-1 but it\'s hard for me to get too fired up about that one considering they came home in 13 and 1 yesterday.

[TreadHead]

Have a tough time understanding any negative sentiment on MuchoMachoMan given he ran his last race on 3 shoes and was still right there with Nehro.  He has as solid a 2yr old foundation as any of the remaining contenders and is definitely under the radar here.

Plus, with as awful as the weather has been in KY the past few years this time of year, Macho Uno\'s are winning 24% on off going and if it comes up wet it can only help this horse.

[big18741]

Sway Away looks pretty hopeless on graded earnings to make it in.

Difficult IMO to guess at these without seeing the last #\'s for all of them in their nine furlong preps.Hopefully the Pre Derby Special is up by next weekend.

Curious to see how big a new top for Nehro,Archarcharch,Midnight Interlude,even Shackleford(five wide-1st turn?)

Was Dialed In\'s Fla Derby as slow as Rags scored it?

Was Toby\'s Corner ground saving Wood a new top.If so how much?

How much did MMM improve in the LA Derby off his Holy Bull and Risen Star? Is he working his way back to the Remsen effort?

Visually I was most impressed by Toby\'s Corner trip then strangling gallop out in the Wood.Horse came home very fast when clear and wanting more after the wire.Of concern would be the off race in the Gotham and Castro\'s ability to save ground in the Derby with a bad draw.He would need a trip with his running style.

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:

Great post. In 40 years of playing the Derby, I have never been 3 weeks out without having something.

This crop is so baffling that if one thinks the speed or trackers can\'t get it done, who of the closers inspires the confidence they will sustain at a classic distance.

My guess right now is to look for a mid-range stalker who can middle move (anyone with miler pedigree) and hold on through a painfully slow final eight.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[CHOWDERMAN]

nehro might be the play...check out his sibling data...a bunch of numbers at a route distance at the age of three show\'s he\'s running to his ability...all he needs is to move forward for the derby....looks the part of a mile a quarter horse...

[miff]

\"I have that futures ticket on Archarcharch at 250-1 but it\'s hard for me to get too fired up about that one considering they came home in 13 and 1 yesterday\"


Jim,

AAA got there in about 12.4(last 1/8th) and for this year maybe thats ok. AAA and runner up had a nice set up in front of them though.Connections of JP\'s Gusto shipped from Cali for exactly what reason?? BRILLIANT race strategy!

Just another common bunch in the Ark D but stars compared to the Bluegrass which was equal to an allowance race on grass.

Mike

[bstaubs22]

He seems to remind a little bit of another Assmussen colt who was lightly raced, Curlin. Curlin finished third and I think that underneath is probably where the horse will end up.

[Caradoc]

Mike: There was a falling out between David Hofmans and the racing manager for the owner, which had more to do with the horse going to Arkansas than anything else.

[alm]

The numbers are everything, for sure, but if we look at the horses who have been improving from race to race, in gradual patterns, Dialed In and Nehro stand out.  There\'s every reason to believe these two will go forward in the Derby.

Those who have had strong numbers, but are complete question marks, include Uncle Mo, Midnight Interlude and The Factor.  If entered, each will make some of the running...and could win.

Bump up horses who may get a piece of the tris or supers include Toby\'s Corner, Arch Arch Arch, Mucho Macho Man...and then throw in your favorites after that.

Some might call this wide open thinking, but I don\'t think the race itself is wide open...I don\'t think there is any Mine That Bird lurking here.

[number5858]

Uncle Mo - Empire Maker showed us you can\'t lose any training at all at this time of year and win. Is anyone aware of an Indian Charlie that has won at 1 1/4? We absolutely want him in the race though. He is likely to have some lower odds, say 8-1, and take a bunch of bad money.

Master of Hounds - until someone makes the ship from Dubai successfully, I am just not buying it, but we want him there because he will also take bad money

The Factor - not sure how bad a displaced palate is, or how easy/hard it is to recover from, but this seems another one we want in the race on reputation. Not ready to dismiss yet, but watching carefully. Baffert is a crafty trainer.  

Mucho Macho Man - seems to be coming into the Derby in the right way and working lights out. Good breeding for the slop too, but can he get the distance?

R Heat Lightning - very interesting horse. Will the connections take a chance? Probably hasn\'t been a better chance for a filly in a while.

They say the fittest horse wins the Derby, so I know I am going to be paying close attention to the works and the post position draw. Very difficult to overcome a 1,2, or 18,19,20 since there doesn\'t appear to be a Big Brown in this year\'s race. Does anyone have a list of those who have run a TG 2 already at 1 1/16 - 1 1/8 already?