Jimbo: It may not be so grim. Here are some thoughts on what seem to be the main contenders.
At this point, Dialed In has to be the leader of the pack. My guess is that he will go in reasonably fast because the Florida Derby will get a good number. If so, however, he will have a questionable line. He ran a 3¼ in the Holy Bull, his second start. He bounced more than 2 points in the allowance race five weeks later. If the Florida Derby was a fast number, the most likely outcome in the Derby will be another regression, probably to a number that will not be competitive. Then there is the matter of how Zito is handling him, which by Zito’s standards in unusual. Dialed In breezed 12 days after the Holy Bull, then went two weeks without a recorded work. If in fact he didn\'t breeze in that period, considering Nick\'s m.o., something was off. In that period, Nicky announced he was passing the 400K Fountain of Youth in favor of the nothing allowance race a week later. Very strange. DI did not breeze until 19 days after the allowance race, his only recorded breeze before the Florida Derby. Zito has announced that he will work him only twice between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, adding to the mystery. Is Zito trying to manage a physical problem? There is certainly some evidence for that.
Archarcharch has to be regarded a serious Derby horse. He has a classic 10f pedigree, and looked very good sprinting late in the fall. My guess is that he ran a small new top yesterday, one that does not have to knock him out in three weeks time. Big pedigree, not overdeveloped, forging forward, all good things. I am concerned about his running style, which seems to guarantee ground loss in large fields. If you reversed his trip with Nehro’s yesterday, he would have beaten Nehro by many lengths. There should be no questions about who was best in that race.
Toby\'s Corner looks to be developing into a nice horse, another who ran reasonably fast in the late fall, but not too fast to raise concerns about his ability to hold his form. (Anyone who ran close to zero in the fall is either struggling to get back to that number or off the Derby trail altogether.) Toby didn\'t look comfortable during the Wood and had to work hard down the stretch to win after getting in some trouble, but he did overcome that trouble, and showed good acceleration. A tough call, but another horse who looks to have a forward move in him and will be very well prepared for Derby day.
Jaycito is still intriguing. He is another horse that ran fast enough at 2 but not too fast. His BC performance was troubling, and suggested a physical problem of some importance. Further, my guess is that Baffert has been battling some physical problems with him during the spring even before the foot problem that caused him to miss the S.A. Derby. His 3yo debut was a little late, and he missed a work at the end of March before the foot problem emerged. Regardless, if Baffert can get the foot fixed, and he gets something out of the Lexington I will be interested in having a long look. Jaycito also has a late-developing pedigree, so at some point he will run a big one this year on dirt, as long as he is healthy.
Soldat is not a horse I would key on, but he should improve off his flat Florida Derby performance. He has two big back numbers. The negative number in the slop would almost certainly win the Derby, and the FOY number would be very strong, particularly for a horse that has speed and can save some ground. The history of horses coming into the Derby off consecutive backward moves is not good, however.
As for Midnight Interlude, he has improved a lot in a short period of time, and I would make him borderline in the Derby even were he to hold his form.
