Recent Beyers

[pizzalove]

Any one know the Beyers from the recent stakes races?  Curious about Arkansas and Blue Grass.

[bstaubs22]

Bluegrass-89

Arkansas Derby-Watchmaker from DRF predicts between a 93 and 95

[bstaubs22]

I guess now they say a preliminary fig of 98

[miff]

AAA received a 98 Beyer. With ground loss he will be in the TG 1 range(if JB agrees) making him one of the few at that level going in.

[TGJB]

I tried to get 4 different people to buy that SOB, one made an offer, before his first OP race.

This is becoming a very ineteresting betting Derby, simply by the sheer number of throwouts and bet-againsts.

[rayj54]

BG 89

[pizzalove]

Who would you say are the definite throwouts and why?

[ajkreider]

Hah!  For that, I\'m pretty sure you have to get the Derby package, which is probably as it should be.  But, you could make the argument for tosses being:

Comma to the Top (distance)
Gusto (talent)
Brilliant Speed (turfer)
The Factor (distance)
Watch Me Go (talent)
Jaycito (2 week turnaround)
Pants on Fire (distance)
Decisive Moment (talent)

Maybe

Midnight Interlude (jump up)
Mo (distance)

Not saying I\'m tossing all of these - as there are reasons to worry about the others, too.

[pizzalove]

I always buy the Derby package.  Great value.

[TGJB]

I will hold my cards until then, but I just went down the earnings list down to 35 and found only 6 horses that I could ever use under any circumstances, which is an amazingly low number for a 20 horse field before even looking at the draw. (By the way, I\'m asssuming The Factor and Mo don\'t run, which may or may not turn out to be the case. But with Baffert having another starter I think he\'ll wait until the Preakness instead of coming back again in 3 weeks, and there\'s the issue of antibiotics with Mo).

Anyway, 14 throwouts, some of which will take money, is a pretty good start. And makes for an easy seminar-- too slow, too slow, too slow, bounce, too slow...

[RICH]

So, when is that derby package coming out?

[TGJB]

The seminar will be up that Wed night as usual. Don\'t know when we usually put out the pre-entry package, Al isn\'t in today. Probably late this week if we don\'t include the Lexington, early next if we do.

This may not be the best Derby field, but it\'s a pretty good betting Derby. And I don\'t mean what others sometimes mean by that, which is that it\'s wide open-- I mean it\'s an opportunity.

[phil23]

Alright I\'ll bite...

Our host\'s 6 are:
MMM - fast at two, didn\'t get back to it in 1st two starts @3 but cycling forward, and no bad one\'s or bounces yet.  Training well by all accounts. And tons of rest coming into it.

Soldat - Nothing at 2 but first out (slop aided???, maybe, maybe not) @3 is fastest number by any of the top 20, then 0/2/X\'d, so now can he get back to it?  Even 2 pts off that big one ought to do it, assuming MO is not MO.  Good rest coming into it and long time (Jan) since the big one.

AAA - Fast enough @2 so that\'s good and then progressed nicely at 3 down to whatever he ran in ArkD. A 1 maybe with grd loss?  Very much in it if hasn\'t already shot his load.  Does have to contend with short rest.

Stay Thirsty - Fast enough @2 so that\'s good.  Only two starts at 3 so that\'s good but has not gotten back to his 2yo top yet.  But 5 weeks rest and Pletcher and only two starts...obviously things get a bit thin from here on down.

Toby\'s Corner - Not as fast as last two @2 (like I said things getting a big thin at this point) but not crazy slow either.  Got down to a decent one in 2nd out at 3, then tiny bounce only back to 2yo top (good sign), and then whatever he got in Wood.

And that\'s all I can come up with.  I really don\'t know who else.  Maybe Jacito (fast enough at 2, only 2 starts if goes in Lex), maybe Pants on Fire (decent 2yo top, but over raced coming in)...Blah!

Dialed in - too damn slow
Master of Hounds - 3 pts SLOWER on dirt, although great rest and prob fast enough

How\'d I do?

[TGJB]

Some right, some wrong, some seminar.

Tell you what, the studies we do every year about good Derby patterns don\'t help a lot this year, almost nobody\'s got\'em.

[firmturf]

Can we set an over/under on the words \"too slow\" in this years analysis?

I\'ll assume the line is at 5?