AAA vs. Nehro

[covelj70]

Let\'s not forget AAA carried 4 more pounds than Nehro in the Arkansas Derby.

It\'s very clear to me from alot of different posts/articles on alot of different sites that Nehro is going to be one of this year\'s wise guy horses because he closed so well and galloped out so well in the last two races.

I want to see the numbers and patterns on all of these before saying anything too strong but at this point, I am leaning against Nehro on top.  I could see a case for him getting a piece underneath but not the win for 3 reasons:

1) The 4 pounds he got last time are significant and he still wasn\'t able to get the job done
2) Deep closers always have a tough time coming from way out of it in the 20 horse field
3) He didn\'t get past the winner in either of the last 2 even when it looked like he should have so he looks like a bit of a hanger to me.  After all, he\'s eligible for a nx1 still.

If the horse was going to be a price, I would be alot more interested and willing to forgive some of the issues above.  Like Jimbo said about Soldat, at 5-1, I wouldn\'t be willing to play an 0-2-x pattern but at 15-1 I might.  Same deal here for me with Nehro.  Problem with this one is that I think he\'s going to go off as one of the choices given all of the hype.

[Michael D.]

Hi Jim.

The point about weight is legit. I\'m guessing only a small % of the crowd factors in that length and a half. Trip is also crucial for Nehro, as he\'s gotten relatively clean run last two. Things could change dramatically in the Derby, though the race shape figures to work in his favor. While a serious horse might have held them both off, I wouldn\'t argue that Nehro should have passed AAA. Nehro had all the momentum at the end, and might have won if Corey had moved sooner. Looked like a solid final 1/8 to me. These Mineshafts just eat up ground.

[APny]

I just watched the replay..I think Nehro would\'ve won if he moved sooner...C-Nak clearly wasn\'t aware of the short stretch there.  BUT did anyone actually listen to that racecall!!!!  The WORST call I have ever heard in a major race.  Half of the race was dead air as the announcer tried to figure out which horse was which.

[covelj70]

I couldn\'t agree with you more about the race call.  My wife and I were looking at one another during the race wondering if we had accidently turned the volume off or something.

That was quite an odd call for the biggest race of the meet.

[ajkreider]

Are you sure Nehro counts as a deep closer?

I believe the chart in the Lousiana Derby has him no farther than 4 back at any stage.  He was farther back in Ark, but only 1 length or so behind the winner at the half.   Certainly, he\'s been closer to the pace than dialed in.

Don\'t think I can play Nehro to win, but he needs to show up in exotics.

[mjellish]

Thought the same thing about the race call.  No excuse for that.

I would be careful about assuming that if Nehro would have moved sooner he would have got there.  That\'s usually not the case.  And alot of these types lose their punch over that final 1/8th in the Derby.  They move when they move.  The strong gallop out is a positive, but everyone with a clue knows all about this horse.  Depending upon who enters he could be anywhere from 3rd to 6th betting choice.  So you\'ve got a decision to make.  Do you include him at what is probably going to be underlaid odds, or do you leave him out in favor of including someone else at a higher price and risk letting him hit the board and beat you?

I haven\'t seen all the numbers yet, but my hunch is if the derby were tomorrow I would let a horse like Nehro beat me.  But I thought the same last year with Super Saver and we all know how that worked out.  

As an aside, there have really only been two horses that have shown me any athleticism by being able to have a rally interrupted, shift in/out for room and re-rally.  There are going to be wide trips, troubled trips and wide troubled trips.  So that is a skill that can really come in handy in a 20 horse field like the KY Derby, and something I use to help me decide between contenders.

Also going to be tough to find a good looking sheet on most of these.  Someone that ran fast at 2, who has run back to that fig at 3 and is coming into the derby off a competitive pair of figs.  When you find yourself getting creative about everyone\'s sheet by saying things like well I forgive this one because it was in the slop and that one because he got kicked before the race and this one because he had blinkers on and that one because he didn\'t get the lead and that one because he probably didn\'t like the track and this one because he had a stomach ache and that one because I don\'t care if he didn\'t run at 2 and...

I\'m sure a lot of people get my point.  

Looking at this race from a pure sheet point of view there are probably only 3 horses that can win it.  Over the last six years, Super Saver, Street Sense and Barbaro more or less fit the traditional looking sheet profile.  But Mine That Bird came out of nowhere, Big Brown should have bounced, and Giacomo came out of nowhere when the pace completely melted down.  

With this field, I would say buyer beware of being too dogmatic with any approach.  I think the final works and track condition will help sort this out for me as much anything.  And we could see two 30-1 or higher shots in the super, which makes this an interesting race to structure a bet a around.

[TGJB]

If Nehro had gotten 4 pounds from AAA he would have won-- Nakatani was 2 pounds over.

[Michael D.]

The owners must have been thrilled to get that info. Good thing those two lbs didn\'t keep them out of the big one.

[covelj70]

Goodness being 2 lbs over in a $1m race just seems inexcusable.

Holy smokes

maybe they put Borel on this guy after all.  The weight would seem to be a good reason.

[Lost Cause]

If Corey can\'t get 126 for the derby that would be sad.  He was killing me all day on Saturday with +5 on some live ones.

[streetbull]

Covelj70 wrote:

     1) The 4 pounds he got last time are significant and he still wasn\'t able to get the job done
2) Deep closers always have a tough time coming from way out of it in the 20 horse field
3) He didn\'t get past the winner in either of the last 2 even when it looked like he should have so he looks like a bit of a hanger to me. After all, he\'s eligible for a nx1 still.

     

Sometimes the correct response might just be like how one would deal with questions that pertains with the IRS...\" It Depends....\" ;-)

Weight differences over a route of ground, it can have an impactful difference as posted by our host TGJB....Doc Sartin would have scorned at us students as being \"adjustment happy\" if we would have tried to account for the weight changes/shifts...In most races, especially in sprints, the differences are nil....

In another school of thought, a high energy horse- one that sets a fast pace against par and one that is able to carry that pace with a decent final last fraction, weight differences up to an certain extent are minimal...In contrast,a deep closer who is by definition a lower energy horse who is dependent on the pace outcome during a race, weight changes/differences can be impactful...

Dr. Fager versus Gato Del Sol....( Dr. Fager and Forego used to carry up to 130lbs or more in some races in their racing career.)

As for \"deep closers\", well, it depends....in races like the Kentucky Derby, in past races, there were some serious fast blistering early fractions, that the position to win this particular race, just might be at the rear of the pack,away from the blistering early pace...but a winning profile requirement might require that the winner should be in front by the top of the stretch call....

In Ferdinand\'s Derby, there was Groovy who would end the year as Champion Sprinter and John Gosden\'s Zabaleta setting some suicidal splits(22.and change and 45. and change for the early fractions, that one of the favorites, Snow Chief had no prayers chasing up front against this pace...while Ferdinand with 54 year old Bill Shoemaker had a dream trip from post position #1 of all posts to win the Derby from  far back...

As for the last point brought up...wasn\'t Alyseba eligible for NW x1 also, and no ...Nehro is not Alyseba....

Archarcharch was 4 wide entering the first and second turn as well as the final turn...Nehro was also wide entering the final turn...But these factors are not what stood out.....Of all the Derby preps, these two made huge moves against the second fractions around the turns...


Covelj70...Congratulations on your astounding victories last week!!!!

[jbelfior]

Dance City has arguably put in one of the better efforts of all the major prep races.

He\'s not a Derby contender, but how many have actually set, forced, or prompted an above par or strong pace and finished???  Anyone, Beuler, anyone?


Good Luck,
Joe B..

[jack72906]

AJ,

Check out the race he ran before the La. Derby. Ran at the back of the field and then made a huge move on the turn and circled the field about 4w from the 10 post(if I remember correctly). He basically beat every track bias that Oaklawn has that day. Very impressive.

He\'s one of the few in the field that we know can get 10f. If he draws a good pp, he\'d be hard to toss with the different running styles that he\'s shown in his last three races.

My issue with the horse are the obvious wise guy associations and the fact that he has run 3 big races in a row. Looks like he\'s set up for a backwards move on 5/7.

[sekrah]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thought the same thing about the race call.  No
> excuse for that.
>
> I would be careful about assuming that if Nehro
> would have moved sooner he would have got there.
> That\'s usually not the case.  And alot of these
> types lose their punch over that final 1/8th in
> the Derby.  They move when they move.  The strong
> gallop out is a positive, but everyone with a clue
> knows all about this horse.  Depending upon who
> enters he could be anywhere from 3rd to 6th
> betting choice.  So you\'ve got a decision to make.
>  Do you include him at what is probably going to
> be underlaid odds, or do you leave him out in
> favor of including someone else at a higher price
> and risk letting him hit the board and beat you?
>
> I haven\'t seen all the numbers yet, but my hunch
> is if the derby were tomorrow I would let a horse
> like Nehro beat me.  But I thought the same last
> year with Super Saver and we all know how that
> worked out.  
>
> As an aside, there have really only been two
> horses that have shown me any athleticism by being
> able to have a rally interrupted, shift in/out for
> room and re-rally.  There are going to be wide
> trips, troubled trips and wide troubled trips.  So
> that is a skill that can really come in handy in a
> 20 horse field like the KY Derby, and something I
> use to help me decide between contenders.
>
> Also going to be tough to find a good looking
> sheet on most of these.  Someone that ran fast at
> 2, who has run back to that fig at 3 and is coming
> into the derby off a competitive pair of figs.
> When you find yourself getting creative about
> everyone\'s sheet by saying things like well I
> forgive this one because it was in the slop and
> that one because he got kicked before the race and
> this one because he had blinkers on and that one
> because he didn\'t get the lead and that one
> because he probably didn\'t like the track and this
> one because he had a stomach ache and that one
> because I don\'t care if he didn\'t run at 2 and...
>
> I\'m sure a lot of people get my point.  
>
> Looking at this race from a pure sheet point of
> view there are probably only 3 horses that can win
> it.  Over the last six years, Super Saver, Street
> Sense and Barbaro more or less fit the traditional
> looking sheet profile.  But Mine That Bird came
> out of nowhere, Big Brown should have bounced, and
> Giacomo came out of nowhere when the pace
> completely melted down.  
>
> With this field, I would say buyer beware of being
> too dogmatic with any approach.  I think the final
> works and track condition will help sort this out
> for me as much anything.  And we could see two
> 30-1 or higher shots in the super, which makes
> this an interesting race to structure a bet a
> around.


Agree mjellish.  Nakatani was destroying the card.  He had 3 winners come from the back of the pack that day, so it\'s not very fair to say he didn\'t know it was a short stretch.  I\'m not convinced Nehro wins if he moves sooner.  It\'s easy to look at a fast closer that just misses and say that, but there are alot of other things at work here.  If that was true than every single closer would win if the jock just moved him sower.

I\'ll use Nehro underneath, but there\'s no way on earth he could be a key for me   It\'s too easy for a horse of his type to not get the right trip.   He does not have too many outs if things don\'t work out for him, and at his likely price (8-1, 9-1?), no thanks.

[sekrah]

jack72906 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> AJ,
>
> Check out the race he ran before the La. Derby.
> Ran at the back of the field and then made a huge
> move on the turn and circled the field about 4w
> from the 10 post(if I remember correctly). He
> basically beat every track bias that Oaklawn has
> that day. Very impressive.
>
> He\'s one of the few in the field that we know can
> get 10f. If he draws a good pp, he\'d be hard to
> toss with the different running styles that he\'s
> shown in his last three races.
>
> My issue with the horse are the obvious wise guy
> associations and the fact that he has run 3 big
> races in a row. Looks like he\'s set up for a
> backwards move on 5/7.


Jack.. Closers were winning all day at Oaklawn.   Speed was getting buried.   Sway Away and Dance City were the most impressive horses in the race IMO.