Rainbow P6 mandatory payout

[Rick B.]

Am I way off base in thinking there may be far too many winners of the mandatory payout of the Rainbow P6 this weekend?

Did anyone play around with any numbers for this bet? My first warning flag went up when I realized that someone with 2 solid singles can buy the rest of the P6 for only $2073.60.

I don\'t expect anyone to make that bet; it\'s really just for illustration. I have numbers all over the notepad here, and unless P6 Player Nation goes blind and dumb Saturday...I don\'t see anything that suggests that there is any real value in this bet.

Anyone been noodling on this?

[FrankD.]

Rick,

I played a $ 90.00 ticket today ( 1x5x4x3x5x3 ) and collected $ 264.00 for 6 out of 6. It was pretty chalky a 5/1 shot and the other 5 were all under 5/2. One of my friends collected the $264.00 for a $ 4.80 ticket !

So you are correct if its a semi-formful day on Saturday it will not be worth it for the syndicates to plunge.

But if it does get to 5 million thats a big pie to slice up for a small investment ?

[Rick B.]

FrankD. Wrote:
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> But if it does get to 5 million thats a big pie to slice up for a small  investment?

It is. The question is, can we expect the number of winning tickets to increase at a rate similar to the increase in the amount wagered?
 
There were 335 winners today on just under $185K in handle. $4 million in chase on Saturday doesn\'t seem unreasonable, but if the number of winning tickets rises in rough correlation to the amount bet, we might see 7200 winning tickets...each paying an estimated (drumroll)...$665.00

Watch it, would-be syndicate plungers!

[Michael D.]

Rick, that there will be more winners because of the 10 cent increments should not affect the value of the bet. 10 centers should contribute as much bad money as good.

Play it in $2 increments and it\'s a normal pk6 with a huge carryover that most of us here did not finance. Looks like a win/win to me.

[analizethis]

Today was one of the chalky sequences of the season but generally you are right on the money. For the full season there have been an average of 64 winners a day with an average handle of $69,104. Extrapolating from those averages to a $4,000,000 handle pool gives you just over 3,700 winners of just under a $900 payoff.

My approach will be to find a single of two and go five or six deep in the rest anticipating an eight to one payoff for my approximate $100 investment. If I get lucky with a bomb or two maybe a double my odds but at the $.10 bet it makes no sense to put together a multi-thousand investment.

[Paolo]

By my calculations:

Payoff today was $2236 for 34 winners with $158k bet in the pool.

That same number of winning tickets would have paid over $41k if the payout were mandatory today.

But remember, there were only a total of 218k possible combinations today, whereas tomorrow there will be about 2.5M due to the full fields! I can easily see a 10 cent ticket tomorrow paying ten times what it would have paid today, perhaps $400k...

Surely somebody can check the math, and agree or disagree?

[plasticman]

Paolo, you\'re right, this can be a huge payday, even for a dime. I think the most overbet combinations will be horses who are no hopers at 40-1 or higher, if you can get a ticket that has a bunch of 3 and 4-1 shots and maybe even a favorite or two, it will be good value. Many of those millions in the pool will be spreading wildly on horses with very little shot. If a pair of 50-1 shots win, the payout will probably be less than the parlay.

Some big bettors will be putting together 2 and 3k \'caveman\' tickets but those tickets are equivalent to a 40 or 50 grand bet into a conventional pick 6.

[number5858]

The rail is out at 72 ft. That\'s going to make those outside posts tough in the last three turf races.

[sekrah]

I just handicapped the Rainbow Six.   I would have been better off just jamming a pencil into my eyesocket.  I\'ll goto bed and see if I can do any better than 5x5x5x7x4x6 in the morning.

[number5858]

sekrah Wrote:
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> I just handicapped the Rainbow Six.   I would have
> been better off just jamming a pencil into my
> eyesocket.  I\'ll goto bed and see if I can do any
> better than 5x5x5x7x4x6 in the morning.

With the scratches, now you are down to a mere 4X4X5X7X4X6*.10 = $1,344

[sekrah]

I\'ve narrowed it down and got a ticket in.  Couldn\'t find a race I really liked to single.  Best I could do was 10,11 in the 1st leg and 1,3 in the 5th leg..

[Paolo]

With the scratches, there are only 1.2 million possible combinations. I\'ll have to lower the \'potential\' payoff to less than $200k for a ten center, considering the thing could actually be bought for about $120k.

I\'m also guessing that track management was overly optimistic in estimating the final pool at $5M...

[Paolo]

\"The rail is out at 72 ft. That\'s going to make those outside posts tough in the last three turf races.\"


Seems like I have heard this several times before, but what is the rationale?

[number5858]

The rail being out at 72\' really narrows the course and makes the outer post positions even tougher. That might help you decide where to compromise your your ticket. Here are the actual rail settings for today:

Race 8 - no temp rail
Race 10 - rail out 72\'
Race 11 - no temp rail
Race 12 - rail out 72\'

[number5858]

number5858 Wrote:
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> The rail being out at 72\' really narrows the
> course and makes the outer post positions even
> tougher. That might help you decide where to
> compromise your your ticket. Here are the actual
> rail settings for today:
>
> Race 8 - no temp rail
> Race 10 - rail out 72\'
> Race 11 - no temp rail
> Race 12 - rail out 72\'


late change on Race 8 - no temp rail, now out 72\'