No Sek. That\'s not what I am saying. My main point was that you cannot GUARANTEE a 1w 1w trip ever, for any horse. Even if they run by themselves around the track. A ground saving trip is either likely or not, or more likely or very unlikely, but it is never guaranteed. That\'s all I was saying.
But for what its worth, I was at the Churchill last year for Oaks and Derby day. The rail was more or less dead both days. And on Derby day the weather was rainy and windy, off and on, all day and the way they groomed the track between races changed off and on all day, which really messes with the varients and the way the track plays. They were sealling it, then a few races later they harrowed it, then they started sealing it again. They went back and forth all day because you just couldn\'t tell what the weather was going to do. About 40 minutes before the Derby it quit raining and the sun came out for the first time all day. And most importantly, through all of that, there is an area of tightly packed dirt left right down, and I mean RIGHT down, by the rail from the maintenance equipment because the harrower doesn\'t get in that far. Go to Churchill sometime on a sloppy race day. You can actually see it. And that is where Calvin, and for the most part ONLY Calvin, often tries to ride. He rides closer to the rail than any other jockey I\'ve ever seen. And this is important because if you go out 1 foot from there it is a completely different track. Ever notice how Calvin, when he\'s down on the rail in the stretch at Churchill, is still all right hand with the whip? If his horse moves away from the whip he wants it to go closer to the rail, not away from it, because the track there is different.
There are weird things like this at some tracks. The old Keenland used to get it\'s \"Golden Rail\" in part because of the way the shadows fall on the track, which keeps more moisture in that part of the track. I\'ve seen Belmont get a pretty deep tire rut from the tractor as well. In fact, I remember one Breeders Cup, can\'t remember the year but I know Cigar was running, when any horse that got in that tire rut and stayed there had a huge edge.
So yes, I am saying that the track changed during the races. Happens all the time. If you try to make your own figures for any length of time you will see this, which is why sometimes you can\'t come up with a consistent varient and also why it\'s important to go off the horses and make projections. If you don\'t do it that way and just go off the raw times you get some really wacky numbers.
