Calvin desperate?

[Dana666]

Terrific post. Lots of wisdom there! You might have a PH.D. in the school of hard knocks!

[sekrah]

I read Talib too and your full of it.  By your definition every single jockey thats ever won a Derby is a luckbox.  We\'re all luckboxes too for just winning the million man sperm race right?  Doubting that Borel has a level of skill and instinct above his peers at Churchill Downs is absurd.  His track record there passes sample size muster.

[Rick B.]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What you\'re not getting is the bias in the human
> brain to try and link cause and effect to results.
 
Then, a few sentences later:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think this observation particularly relevant to
> Borel in this case. How many riding titles did he
> win in New York or California, traditionally
> anyway, the real testing grounds for riders?

Well, there it is -- the exact bias you refer to above, only in reverse:

Borel never won a riding title in NY or California, therefore, his winning the Derby is a fluke; that he\'s done it 3 times in the last 4 years is merely a testament to the power of the fluke angle. Right?

Really...I can\'t remember the last time I\'ve read such disrespectful and poorly-reasoned rubbish on a horse racing forum. You are completely wrong about Calvin Borel, and you owe him an apology -- NO jockey wins 3 Kentucky Derbys in 4 years simply out of luck! If you can\'t bring yourself to apologize, fine, but at least quit talking out of your behind.

[plasticman]

Interesting battle between Dana and Rick about Borel, i\'ll chime in with 2 cents. I think Borel\'s derby wins are mostly skill and have very little do with randomness or luck. We just need to realize that most Derby jocks are some of the best and most accomplished jocks in the world, the Derby jocks are mostly made up of people who have won the majority of the big races in America, so these guys have carved out a great living for themselves.

Here\'s what happens in the Derby, jocks understand that riding the rail in the Derby has its inherent risks, meaning, if you get blocked in the Derby and botch the ride and lose with a horse who might otherwise have won, you carry that around the rest of your career...you\'re the guy who screwed up the Derby by getting blocked.

Calvin rides like he doesnt really care if people think he\'s the guy who got blocked in the Derby.....he realizes this is the fastest way between Point A and Point B. This is kind of like Bailey\'s ride on Arcangues, Jerry rode that horse in a specific way because he was a million to one and he knew he had to get \'lucky\' to win. If Jerry got blocked, he would had had his excuse all ready, he wasnt riding a 3-5 shot.

Calvin rides CD better than anybody and when he rides the Derby, he knows he\'s going to figure out a way to NOT get blocked, he\'s just riding with amazing confidence that this is \'his\' track and he\'ll find a way to know every nook and cranny of this place.

I think his Derby RIDES were all skill, but his results (winning a bunch of them) was part skill and part luck....obviously you need a lot of luck to win a Derby even if you ride a perfect race, but Calvin\'s rides in these races were flawless, he\'s the only guy with the balls to do what he does, and that has to count for something.

[MonmouthGuy]

Perhaps the most convoluted post ever written on this board. You are essentially stating that there is no correlation between Borel\'s success at Churchill and his success in the Kentucky Derby, which coincidentially is run at Churchill.  In addition, you are dismissing the ability of a jock to get a 1w1w trip in a 20 horse Cavalry charge that sometimes has the fastest horses in a race (i.e. Brother Derek) running 5W7W  as providing illusory happiness. Perhaps you are still upset that Zenyatta didn\'t \"eat Blame for lunch.\"

[big18741]

The rail skimming rides are one thing.

Borel doesn\'t get enough credit for changing up the running style on both Super Saver and MTB.

[FrankD.]

A very interesting emotional string on Calvin, some facts a lot of fiction.

I\'ll throw my 2 cents in from 35 plus years of watching races and riders. CB is an above average journeyman rider and would be a top 10 rider on any circuit anywhere any time. Would he be or have ever been a top gun in NY or Cali ? I seriously doubt it.

However at Churchill Downs he is Eddie Arcaro, Bill Hartack, Angel Cordero and every other HOF jock all wrapped up in one !!! The man just owns this track and his record speaks for itself on a daily basis there.

How can anyone discount his Derby record ? He\'s one of 5 jocks to win 3 Derby\'s, Shoe won 4, Arcaro and Hartack 5 each. It took Willie the Shoe 26 rides to get 4, Arcaro 21 to get 5 while Calvin has 3 on only 8 mounts ? His percentage is surpassed only by Bill Hartacks amazing 5 wins from only 12 Derby mounts. Throw in a 3rd on Denis of Cork and the man is 50 % in the money in 20 horse Derby fields. Come on guys !

[richiebee]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dana666 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > What you\'re not getting is the bias in the
> human
> > brain to try and link cause and effect to
> results.
>  
> Then, a few sentences later:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I think this observation particularly relevant
> to
> > Borel in this case. How many riding titles did
> he
> > win in New York or California, traditionally
> > anyway, the real testing grounds for riders?

Can\'t recall Pat Day, the \"Head Waiter\", winning any NY/Cali
riding titles either.

I must have been overating him all these years.

[richiebee]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick B. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Dana666 Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > What you\'re not getting is the bias in the
> > human
> > > brain to try and link cause and effect to
> > results.
> >  
> > Then, a few sentences later:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > I think this observation particularly
> relevant
> > to
> > > Borel in this case. How many riding titles
> did
> > he
> > > win in New York or California, traditionally
> > > anyway, the real testing grounds for riders?
>
> Can\'t recall Pat Day, the \"Head Waiter\", winning
> any NY/Cali
> riding titles either.
>
> I must have been overrating him all these years.

[Dana666]

I was actually complimenting you. Not sure why you\'re so miffed.

Also, not sure you really understand Taleb b/c what you\'re implying is seemingly completely contradictory to what he teaches, not that I\'m the authority on his work or anything, but that\'s not even what I said anyway. I was specifically referring to Borel\'s last 3/4 derbies, and all the hype about him--please don\'t put words in my mouth. No one would say he\'s not in the top ten or twenty riders in the country, but I don\'t think there\'s much separating riders at that level anyway.

What kind of sample size are you speaking of? Again, I was specifically referring to the Derby, not the rest of his career. Maybe I wasn\'t clear on that point. The sample size for the Derby is completely meaningless having riders in so few of them. And if you don\'t see Mine That Bird as completely random, a black swan in Taleb\'s words, then I really can\'t discuss this with you b/c we\'d be so far apart in our perception of reality.

No big deal, that\'s what\'s makes life interesting. I haven\'t picked a derby winner since black and white TV, so you\'re probably way ahead of me in this case. No worries.

[Dana666]

I know exactly what I\'m saying or writing as the case may be, and as far as I know, nothing is coming out of my ass either. I don\'t post here so people with agree with me, so I really don\'t care!

I also don\'t think I\'m being the least bit disrespectful. Perhaps you haven\'t read my posts completely. I wasn\'t trashing the guy or his body of work or what it took to get to the Derby in the first place.

And yes, I do think the better riders usually find there way to the coasts and prove their skills against the other top riders. I hardly think that\'s a radical point of view.

[Rick B.]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I also don\'t think I\'m being the least bit
> disrespectful. Perhaps you haven\'t read my posts
> completely. I wasn\'t trashing the guy or his body
> of work or what it took to get to the Derby in the
> first place.

I read your posts thoroughly. Incredulously, too -- as in, AYFKM? Is Dana just pulling our collective leg here? Slowly, it dawned on me that you were not kidding. I\'m still shaking my head as I write this.

No, you didn\'t trash Borel\'s body of work or what it took for him to get to the Derby -- you merely took what some consider to be his crowning achievements (I sure do), and reduced them to \"luck\"...as if he should have just been happy to be there at the Derby, but only as a rank outsider: \"...alright now Calvin, you just stay in the back seat and don\'t play with the radio, while the Superior East Coast and West Coast Kingpins sort out the real matter at hand\".

What a crock. That was quite disrespectful of you. I stand by my original assessment.

> And yes, I do think the better riders usually find
> there way to the coasts and prove their skills
> against the other top riders. I hardly think
> that\'s a radical point of view.

No, it\'s not radical at all. It\'s pedestrian, at best, insulting at worst, and an old, tired subset of the \"nothing ain\'t nothing unless it happens on one of the coasts\" crappola I\'ve heard my whole life here in the Midwest.

Went right past Richeebee\'s mention of Pat Day in this regard, did ya? What a schlub THAT guy was, eh? (Not Richee...).

[johnnyseychelles]

I gotta throw my 2c in.  99.9% lurker here, but I\'ve been reading your guys\'s opinions for many years (and respect quite a few of you) and am suprised at this conversation.  Calvin is NOT just a Churchill jock.  He may come across as a yocal, but he\'s no dummy.  If he recognizes a bias, he tries to use it to his advantage.  Other pinhead jockeys follow suit after seeing 3 wtw jobs and figure front speed is king and then go hell bent for leather setting unsustainable pace up front (If Calvin sees this, he can take advantage of this, too).  We see this scenario play out every week at any number of race venues.  Do you just dismiss this as a \"lucky\" set- up for an otherwise ordinary plodding closer that had no chance, withstanding the ridiculous early pace?

Calvin doesn\'t just react.  He anticipates.....sometimes I supsect with knowledge.  \"knowledge\"....you ask?  Go and dig up a replay of the \'93 ARK derby. Anyone here think that Rockumundo won that race just by luck (because he paid $200+)?  Wake up.  The man\'s been doing this for a couple of decades.  MTB needed luck to win, but no way he\'s in position to capitalize on that \"luck\" without Calvin\'s ride.  Do you think these are just aberations and random paths chosen by Calvin?

Not me.

End of rant

[miff]

\"MTB needed luck to win, but no way he\'s in position to capitalize on that \"luck\" without Calvin\'s ride\"

John,

MTB was a ton the best that day,luck??? ran one of the fastest last 4f\'s in derby history but needed Calvins ride to win?? Could have circled that field with any warm body on his back and won on that particular day.


Calvin anticipates, really? Dominguez, Bejarano, Rosario and many others don\'t? Thats it, Calvin Borel for President!!

Mike

[Dana666]

Well, the only thing you understood was, yes, I am saying there may well be a great deal of luck or randomness or whatever else you want to call it that is indeed responsible for his recent success in the derby, and people might well be making way too much of his skills esp. in comparison to the other riders --exactly! That\'s my only point here.

Regarding the rest of your post, it makes no sense. If you\'re going to argue that there aren\'t huge differences in jockey colonies, I mean, you\'re seriously going to say the colony at CD is as generally as good as Saratoga or Gulfstream or Oak Tree or Del Mar -- generally speaking--year in and year out for the last, say, 50 years? I\'m mean that just makes no sense. Bringing up one, guy, Pat Day? That makes your case? You know how flimsy that argument sounds -- it\'s laughable, honestly.